Friday, October 21, 2005

Where Can We Go?

If you're convinced H5N1 is going to wipeout a substantial percentage of the human race, and Resource Wars will wipe away who's left, and you're hell bent on playing real life Survivor, what would you do? Where would you start?

For starters, Empires don't collapse overnight. Give this one more than 50 years, but a worse case scenario could speed that up to less than 1. Unlikley, but possible.

Whether it's 1 or 50 years, here's what you should know:

You stand the best chance of surviving a pandemic, fuel then food shortages, and the resulting social conflicts, by - believe it or not - staying where you are.
For one thing, when people decide to flee, they will do so at the same time, causing a kind of traffic jam paralysis. For another, people trapped outside of their homes are a lot more vulnerable. Unless you call Burundi or Zimbabwe home - and the chances are you don't, since you can afford to use the internet - don't go jumping ship just yet. H5N1 for example is as deadly in Shanghai as it will be in New York. Running after vaccines may prove to be useless. So stick with the people and places you know.

Assuming you are far from 'home', and you decide to get a headstart, where should one go.
This is highly hypothetical, of course, but assuming the onset of Northern Hemisphere resource wars, the Southern Hemisphere will immediately offer islands of relief, principally New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, perhaps Madagascar, and some South American countries. But you would probably find large migrations moving to the same areas, causing a strain on the local resources and populations, not to mention already low fuel supplies.
I would suggest though, that the best place is 'home', a place where you have your fondest memories, a place where you maintain a time-carved, intimate knowledge of the geographical and natural surroundings. A place where the community knows you and are likely to care about you. If this place is an Oasis in the middle of the Sahara, probably not a good idea. If it's a smallish town like Bloemfontein, a place hardly anyone has ever heard of, it might make more sense. Places like Cape Town, Sydney and Auckland will obviously fill to overflowing in a NHCS (Northern Hemisphere Catastrophe Scenario).

In time, inland restaurants serving seafood or worse, will close, and the elite might pay for these delicacies when boredom with local cuisine sets in. Cuisine will become fruit and vegetables, barbeques, and familair traditional stews. Say good bye to pizzas, sodas, icecream, chewing gum, sweets, possibly even coffee. No more hamburgers or fried chicken, and no more salmon salads or sushi, or spaghetti (unless you live in Italy).
See rice and 'mielie pap' (maize meal)and simple soups make a comeback, and local bakeries.
Impoverished farmers will suddenly take centre stage, and people will appeal to them for work.
'Will Work For Food'.

Acute unhappiness can be a great awakener.
If we embrace the changes, it can usher in a much happier era. Where we all use bicycles and wave early morning hello's on our way to farmer's fields, and the crops waiting to be shovelled into baskets.

The more important question, is where we can go in a post oil era. Will we spend our last breaths fighting for scraps, or working together, learning how to build things and make things and do practical things, and teaching that to nearby communities (or fighting them). Time will tell.

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