Monday, November 24, 2008

The Centre Cannot Hold - We are moving into acute social conflict within states, as everyone competes over the smaller pie

The present system won't survive. A new one will replace it. It will not be capitalism as we know it, but may be far worse or far better (more democratic and egalitarian). Determining the outcome is "the major worldwide political struggle of our times."

In the short-term, we're moving into a "protectionist world (forget about so-called globalization)." Governments are getting more into production - even in America and Britain. We're also moving more into "populist government-led redistribution," either in a left-of-center social democratic form or a far right authoritarian one. "And we are moving into acute social conflict within states, as everyone competes over the smaller pie. In the short-run, it is not, by and large, a pretty picture."
A Long-Term View on the Depression
It's started in his view. We're "at the beginning of a full-blown worldwide depression with extensive unemployment almost everywhere. It may take the form of a classic nominal deflation (or less likely) a runaway inflation, which is simply another way in which values deflate." What caused it, he asks? Derivatives? Subprime mortgages? Oil speculators? It's a "blame game of no real importance."
America contended for hegemony as early as 1873, achieved it fully in 1945, and has been declining since the 1970s. "George W. Bush's follies have transformed a slow decline into a precipitate one. And as of now, we are past any semblance of US hegemony. We have entered, as normally happens, a multipolar world. The United States remains a strong power, perhaps still the strongest, but it will continue to decline relative to other powers in the decades to come."
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