Perhaps the most interesting inclusion is Shell's criticism of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2007. The IEA's reference scenario calls for oil supply to increase at 1.3% per year to 2030. Shell suggest that this may appear reasonable as for the last 25 years supply has grown at 1% per year but go on to point out that non-OPEC growth provided more of this past growth than OPEC did. With non-OPEC production "levelling off the IEA seems to assume a growth rate of OPEC production that is double or more the rate we saw in the last 25 years. This is not likely to happen".
It is a refreshing change to see an oil major publicly criticising IEA forecasts in this way.
NVDL: An oil supply crunch will exacerbate the financial crisis simply because:
- the world's wealth is invested in property
- these investments are all assumed to be increasing
- as energy prices increase, the value of suburbia drops, and the critical point is when this drop is below 'acquisition' level
Once enough people are paying off properties that are worth less than their original purchase price, we become 'prisoners of suburbia'. With no wealth/resources to invest in an alternative living arrangement, suburbia becomes a decaying slum with no other alternatives.
Wjile we have some resources at our disposal now - even though they have begun to dimish - we can still mitigate these circumstances. How?
- by developing walkable communities
- by discontinuing the rollout of suburbia and updating to a New Urbanism (if you don't know what that is, google it)
- by investing in rail as a more efficient mechanism for moving large quanities of human beings and 'stuff' around
- by encouraging local communities - particularly the urban and rural poor - to begin intensive organic farming. Failure to mobilise the poor, the economic losers of the new dispensation - not getting these into some fruitful activity risks the poor mobilising as mobs of have-nots, ready to seize food and other sustenance from the prviledged few.
It is a refreshing change to see an oil major publicly criticising IEA forecasts in this way.
NVDL: An oil supply crunch will exacerbate the financial crisis simply because:
- the world's wealth is invested in property
- these investments are all assumed to be increasing
- as energy prices increase, the value of suburbia drops, and the critical point is when this drop is below 'acquisition' level
Once enough people are paying off properties that are worth less than their original purchase price, we become 'prisoners of suburbia'. With no wealth/resources to invest in an alternative living arrangement, suburbia becomes a decaying slum with no other alternatives.
Wjile we have some resources at our disposal now - even though they have begun to dimish - we can still mitigate these circumstances. How?
- by developing walkable communities
- by discontinuing the rollout of suburbia and updating to a New Urbanism (if you don't know what that is, google it)
- by investing in rail as a more efficient mechanism for moving large quanities of human beings and 'stuff' around
- by encouraging local communities - particularly the urban and rural poor - to begin intensive organic farming. Failure to mobilise the poor, the economic losers of the new dispensation - not getting these into some fruitful activity risks the poor mobilising as mobs of have-nots, ready to seize food and other sustenance from the prviledged few.
 clipped from europe.theoildrum.comThe peakists have won ... to the peakists I say, you can declare victory. You are no longer the beleaguered small minority of voices crying in the wilderness. You are now mainstream. You must learn to take yes for an answer and be gracious in victory.
Critically both descent and collapse, the two scenarios thought most likely (descent more so than collapse), call for faster "replacement" than climate change.
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