Wednesday, February 18, 2009

How long will the recession last? No, the important question is will there be a recovery, and what will it look like?

Even though the economy may technically emerge from the recession in the second half of 2009, the recovery may initially become more of an issue of semantics rather than a robust turnaround in economic activity. - Yahoo

NVDL: When we think about 'Recovery' we come to the essence of what's in store, and that is, we're likely not to see anything resembling (or feeling like) a recovery. Economies are likely to be stuck and stagnating if they are not contracting. This is a long term scenario, and most people haven't snapped this yet. It's a fundamental, long term change that will affect this generation profoundly.
clipped from finance.yahoo.com
What kind of a recovery is likely to follow? The answer is: probably a gradual one, unlike the more typical (but not universal) pattern of the economy coming out of most past recessions roaring ahead, propelled by pent-up consumer demand.

The healing process of a deeply wounded banking system, that has already led to nearly $1 trillion of write-downs, will act as a weight around the neck of any economic recovery in the latter part of 2009. Banks will likely continue the slow process of recapitalization and cleaning up the mountains of toxic assets on their balance sheets for a period longer than just the next few quarters.

That task will become even more challenging in the months ahead, as the recession itself will tend to generate an additional amount of toxic assets in their portfolios, impairing their ability to resume a more normal pace of lending.
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