Loos - One Swallow Doesn't Make A Summer

Oil dips below $100 and FNB's John Loos immediately sees the ice age melt into spring. He reckons by mid 2009 we'll be back to partying mode. Um....no. Jeepers, our experts appear to suffer from ADD and a narcissistic form of acute myopia.

Just the one scenario posted below could blow oil prices back to $150. Also, even if things hum nicely, once we approach the winter heating season in the northern hemisphere, those depletion rates (oil again) are going to bite.

The talk that oil prices were about speculators is a kind've oil porn. Yes, speculators maybe added as much as 30% to the price. The bulk of the price still reflects chronic demand fundamentals. In a way, the premiums speculators put on oil were a good thing - it offered us a chance to adapt to the pain and be more efficient?

Did we?

clipped from www.businessday.co.za This means that after sharp year-on-year declines since mid-2007, the value of new mortgage loans is expected to return to positive year-on-year growth towards the second half of 2009. Given that the financial well-being of the country’s household sector is key to the strength of the residential property and mortgage markets, it is important to keep a close eye on this part of the economy. "In recent times, we have started to see the early encouraging signs that the household sector’s financial position may start to turn for the better. Most notable was the South African Reserve Bank not hiking interest rates in August, and as oil prices decline and global food price inflation tapers a bit we are increasingly hopeful that the country has finally reached the end of interest rate hiking," says Loos.