Hurricane Ike's storm path will take it through about 5 million bpd of oil production. That will be sidelined for about a month. 5mbpd wiped out for a month is going to hurt.
Hurricane Ike's current track predicts landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston, but has been moving northwards. Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. Hurricane Ike's current track predicts landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston, but has been moving northwards. Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. Current track would take out long term 5-10% of GOM production, but that's not the problem. So, if the GFDL scenario plays out at a Cat 3 or higher, we are looking at having 20% of US refining capacity, and 5% of global capacity, offline for a month or more. Production side damage becomes irrelevant at that point. |
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