NVDL: Demand may seem to be tapering off as oil prices approach $100. I sense a great deal of complacency. The reason demand is tapering off to begin with is the hammering the US economy (and the ROW) took from the oil price to start off with.
Economists and everyone else seem to froget that whatever happens, we remain addicted to the stuff, and September and October are not months when oil prices/demand are particularly high. I believe towards the middle of September, heading into October, oil prices will show a lot of upward zing. The $147 record will be broken in mid-November - that's if a Hurricane doesn't suck up Gulf infrastructure and spit the pieces out all over Texas. If that happens, $200 by October, and start setting your house on fire (call your insurance to claim some stay-alive money).
CNN: While no significant damage has been reported since Gustav made landfall in Louisiana as a powerful hurricane on Monday, many refineries, pipeline pumping stations and port facilities remain without power from the electricity grid. The main utility there says full restoration could take weeks.
Economists and everyone else seem to froget that whatever happens, we remain addicted to the stuff, and September and October are not months when oil prices/demand are particularly high. I believe towards the middle of September, heading into October, oil prices will show a lot of upward zing. The $147 record will be broken in mid-November - that's if a Hurricane doesn't suck up Gulf infrastructure and spit the pieces out all over Texas. If that happens, $200 by October, and start setting your house on fire (call your insurance to claim some stay-alive money).
CNN: While no significant damage has been reported since Gustav made landfall in Louisiana as a powerful hurricane on Monday, many refineries, pipeline pumping stations and port facilities remain without power from the electricity grid. The main utility there says full restoration could take weeks.
The perception that oil product supply problems will be quickly resolved explains the discrepancy between spot and futures prices.
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