Saturday, September 13, 2008

Ike Kills the Lights; Delivers Killer Punch in the Dark [+ 3am Landfall Satellite Photo + Updated Track]



NVDL: Ike is making landfall right now at 3am local time, and Ike's eye is currently 56 miles south of Houston. It seems as though Ike is a worst case scenario. From the satellite image this is not only a huge storm, but a very large, very wet system. It is also not as weak as many had hoped, strengthening to just below Cat 3 strength before making landfall. After Cuba people may have developed a sense of reactionary-complacency towards Ike - waiting for the storm to strengthen, waiting for the storm to turn. Instead Ike gradually made a beeline for Galveston, hardly diverting its track during its multi-day trek across the Gulf.

Just look how large that area of moisture is? It is no wonder Ike wasn't able to move any faster or stregthen further - Ike had already reached maximum girth and was essentially 'full'. Like Fay, a very dangerous system because of these intense moisture levels and potential for flooding.

Personally I feel the news of a 20-25 foot storm surge came very late. I also feel the President ought to have broadcast an executive order at least 24 hours before Ike made landfall, ordering everyone out. Have you seen the size of this system?

The implications for Houston (see below)are also staggering. It seems there hasn't only been complacency in terms of this storm, but in general - in terms of where and how Americans have chosen to live along this obviously vulnerable shoreline.

FromYahoo:
If Ike is as bad as feared, the storm could travel up Galveston Bay and send a surge up the Houston Ship Channel and into the port of Houston. The port is the nation's second-busiest, and is an economically vital complex of docks, pipelines, depots and warehouses that receives automobiles, consumer products, industrial equipment and other cargo from around the world and ships out vast amounts of petrochemicals and agricultural products.

The storm also could force water up the seven bayous that thread through Houston, swamping neighborhoods so flood-prone that they get inundated during ordinary rainstorms.

The oil and gas industry was closely watching Ike because it was headed straight for the nation's biggest complex of refineries and petrochemical plants. Wholesale gasoline prices jumped to around $4.85 a gallon for fear of shortages.

Ike would be the first major hurricane to hit a U.S. metropolitan area since Katrina devastated New Orleans three years ago. For Houston, it would be the first major hurricane since Alicia in August 1983 came ashore on Galveston Island, killing 21 people and causing $2 billion in damage. Houston has since then seen a population explosion, so many of the residents now in the storm's path have never experienced the full wrath of a hurricane.

Though Ike's center was heading for Texas, it spawned thunderstorms, shut down schools and knocked out power throughout southern Louisiana on Friday. An estimated 1,200 people were in state shelters in Monroe and Shreveport, and another 220 in medical needs shelters.

In southeastern Louisiana near Houma, Ike breached levees, and flooded more than 1,800 homes. More than 160 people had to be rescued from sites of severe flooding, and Gov. Bobby Jindal said he expected those numbers to grow. In some extreme instances, residents of low-lying communities where waters continued to rise continued to refuse National Guard assistance to flee their homes, authorities said.

No deaths had been officially reported, but crews expected to resume searching at daybreak near Corpus Christi for a man believed swept out to sea as Ike closed in.
clipped from news.yahoo.com

"The unfortunate truth is we're going to have to go in tomorrow and put our people in the tough situation to save people who did not choose wisely. We'll probably do the largest search and rescue operation that's ever been conducted in the state of Texas," said Andrew Barlow, spokesman for Gov. Rick Perry.

n Houston, some low-lying communities that were ordered evacuated flooded, but because the storm struck overnight, officials had no idea how bad the damage was.

At 600 miles across, the storm was nearly as big as Texas itself as it approached, and threatened to give the state its worst pounding in a generation. Because of the hurricane's size, the state's shallow coastal waters and its largely unprotected coastline, forecasters said the biggest threat would be flooding and storm surge, with Ike expected to hurl a wall of water two stories high — 20 to 25 feet — at the coast.


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