NVDL: Ike is gusting at 105mph. This is impressive overnight strengthening. Although Ike is forecast to strengthen from Cat 1 to 3, Ike's track takes it off the route weathered by Gustav and Ike will have a longer period to recover from Cuba and strengthen - Ike's track takes it along one of the longest Gulf crossings possible.
And Ike is moving at a sustainable 8mph (Gustav was going at least twice as fast, and Hanna 3 times as quickly once she moved north).
Also Ike is not undertaking a major trajectory shift or turn which means shear will be less a factor and momentum can continue to develop unabated.
This is my opinion - Ike may well develop to Cat 4, and even 5 - during the Gulf crossing.
And Ike is moving at a sustainable 8mph (Gustav was going at least twice as fast, and Hanna 3 times as quickly once she moved north).
Also Ike is not undertaking a major trajectory shift or turn which means shear will be less a factor and momentum can continue to develop unabated.
This is my opinion - Ike may well develop to Cat 4, and even 5 - during the Gulf crossing.
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