Just in - Ike is now back up to CAT 2 status, strengthening quickly.
Right so here is Gustav after clearing the Cuban Peninsula. Check it out. The position of Gustav here is almost identical to Ike (below):
24.2 N - Gustav 23.9 N - Ike
85 W - Gustav 85.3 W Ike
So there you have confirmation that the storms are starting off from here from almost the exact same spot. What are the differences then?
Gustav was stronger at the time, with wind speeds at 125mph whereas Ike is 85mph (right now Ike's up to 90mph...er scratch that Ike's jumped to 100mph now). So Gustav is the stronger system right? Not so fast. A key indicator of a system's strength is barometrical pressure. Here Ike is just 1mb off the pace. But if Ike's winds are slower, how can that be? Well, it really means that Ike's winds are going to strengthen and they are. That's one of the first inferences. Gustav shortly after the above screenshot weakened, then weakened again? Why? One of the reasons was Gustav was racing across the Gulf at 15mph. The distance to landfall (New Orleans) from this point was around 500 miles.
And now we begin to see how Ike is going to beat brother Gus hands down. Ike is moving at a sustainable 8mph - half Gus's pace. Ike's distance to land is more than 850 miles. That is long trip, a long time to warm up over Gulf waters.
Now have a look at just how toasty warm those waters are off Corpus Christi. There's a big patch there of the warmest water you'll find in the world (short of a volcanic lake). Ike is heading straight for that hot puddle (whereas Gustav neatly sidestepped it)
The NHC is forecasting that Ike will strengthen up to Cat 3. I think Ike will step up to 4, even 5 for the reasons given above. Ike has cataclysmic storm potential, the system is already large enough to envelope virtually the entire Gulf of Mexico (see satellite image at bottom).
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