"Timing is terrible for people in the Southern Hemisphere -- places like New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, parts of South America, "Longini said. "They are just coming into their flu season."
SHOOT: A massive cold front (as in a weather system) is already passing over South Africa. Cape Town today is cold, 14 C minimum, 17 C maximum today. South Africa for one should be on high alert as a cold snap is likely to be followed by seasonal influenza, and an outbreak would be, at least initially, disguised and thus invisible. Are there any measures in place to inform the public how to differentiate H1N1 swine flu from ordinary flu?
And Longini says the apparent new strain of swine flu appears to be here to stay. "We are probably going to have to live with this virus for some time," he told CNN.
Longini specializes in the mathematical and statistical theory of epidemics. He works at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute at the Hutchinson Research Center in Seattle, Washington.
But Longini's simulations of a fictional killer flu that were ordered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show the importance of steps health officials can take to prevent further spread of the virus. These measures include "social distancing," or encouraging those sickened with the flu to stay home or seek medical treatment; closing places where groups of people gather; and making anti-flu medications available to large portions of the population.
In the simulations, Longini said, these forms of containment reduce the sickness by nearly two-thirds.
|
No comments:
Post a Comment