Oil Prices to rise over the medium, long term - Non-OPEC oil supply to fall further, faster

The IEA's Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka has said $40 oil would amount to a $1 trillion economic stimulus for the global economy in 2009 and some have said the figure is higher.

The IEA said the oil market would be under-supplied by late 2009 if OPEC fully complied with the 4.2 million bpd of cuts it has announced since September 2008.

"There could be a real run-up in prices just as the world economy begins to recover, which is the last thing the economy needs on the way out of a recession."

NVDL: This is what I've been predicting; a faux recovery and then a second collapse or crash this time with no 'bailout' money, leaving us in a pecarious situation with no hope of rescue, just the certainty that things will get even worse. Doomsday? Not so easy to write off such a bleak scenario now is it?

clipped from uk.reuters.com Global oilfield spending will probably fall 30 percent this year, cutting non-OPEC supply by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2010, and pushing oil prices up another 60 percent, Sanford Bernstein forecast. Barclays Capital saw a potential drop of 1.5 million bpd, or 3 percent of non-OPEC supply, and a 70 percent price rise from current levels to $85/bbl in 2010. Deutsche Bank saw a 280,000 bpd decline this year. Some of these analysts were among the most bullish on oil prices, but they expected a new reality of falling oil output will soon be recognized more widely.