Indonesia went from peak oil production in 1997 to zero exports in 8 years. The U. K. went from peak production in 2000 to zero exports in 7 years.

"Only 10 percent of all post-peak production is exported [from Export Land]," Brown notes. "I was flabbergasted at how quickly exports went to zero."

Despite his gloomy outlook on oil supplies, Brown strikes a hopeful note. He thinks the world can manage the needed downsizing once people abandon their faith in the myth of perpetual economic growth. Having done that, they can band together with their neighbors and fellow citizens and create a new low-energy society that he believes could end up making us healthier--we'll have to walk and bicycle more--and more connected to our neighbors with whom we'll have to work closely to make our communities work.

NVDL: Scary.

clipped from scitizen.com With supplies constrained for geologic and investment reasons, Brown expects net oil exports to continue their decline and create a bidding war among importers similar to the one that vaulted oil prices to almost $150 a barrel last summer.  He thinks it is possible that the average oil price for 2009 could very well be the same as in 2008, around $100 a barrel.  The average, he says, not the wild swings, are a much better indication of what people are paying for oil in the course of a year. And so, the net oil exports crisis only looks to get worse.  He points to the Indonesian example. "Indonesia had a fall [in oil exports] in '97, a pickup in '98 and resumed its decline in '99," he explained.  "After only two years [of post-peak production, i.e. 1997 and 1998), the country had shipped 44 percent of all the cumulative oil it was ever going to export post-peak."  In other words, declines in net exports tend to worsen dramatically in a short period of time.