Thursday, March 05, 2009

How Will A Recession Impact On Online Marketing/Adspend?

In general, it appears that direct marketing and interactive [online] marketing will benefit the most -- or, at least, will suffer the least -- in today's tough economic climate.

I expect the impact for online marketing won't be as stark as the 2001 recession. At that point in time, interactive marketing was still unproven and got caught in the general collapse of the internet industry. Today, the trend of shifting advertising dollars to measurable online channels is proven and won't disappear anytime soon. Thus, I predict that interactive marketing won't crater as much as last time.

At the same time, interactive marketing isn't immune to a slowdown. In fact, eMarketer reduced its estimates for U.S. online advertising to $25.8 billion, a 7 percent reduction from its prior estimate, thus showing the impact of the downturn. But it's worth noting that the forecast is still 23 percent higher than 2007's total. In other words, the recession may slow down the growth of online marketing, but it's still growing at a significant pace by any historical measure.

NVDL: I do have a sneaking suspicion that the internet may truly come into its own during a Depression scenario - where massive people will be at home with nothing to do but surf the internet looking for work, looking for news, and talking to other people. Probably also educating themselves online. Blogs also will flourish particularly those that are already set up.

Procter & Gamble. To this day, P&G maintains a philosophy of not reducing advertising budgets during times of recession, and the company certainly did not make any such reduction during the Depression. It's not a coincidence that P&G has made progress during every one of the major recessions. While competitors cut ad budgets, P&G increased its spending. While the Depression caused problems for many, P&G came out of it unscathed. Radio took P&G's message into more homes than ever, and P&G became a pioneer in effective use of that medium, including its role in creating the notion of soap operas.

Chevrolet. During the 1920s, Fords were outselling Chevrolets by 10 to 1. In spite of the Depression, Chevrolet continued to expand its advertising budget and, by 1931, Chevrolet took the lead in its field.
Good news
The companies with strong balance sheets that survived the initial shock of the Great Depression did realize some benefits. T
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