Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption. A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs. The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes. The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves.
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