Saturday, December 13, 2008

Disturbing Trends X 5

What is predictable is that big trends will run their courses. What is unknowable is how, when, and where.

Earlier this year we identified 5 major trends that were reshaping the world. ‘The 5 E’s’ we called them.

We stopped writing about them because we could never remember what they were. Here, we attempt an update. - Laurie Osborne
Everything is predictable. Yet, we have no idea what will happen. That is the curious paradox of our world. We all know we’re going to die. But none of us knows just how or when or where. As Woody Allen says, don’t tell me when I’m going to die, just tell me where…
Major economic trends: E1 - the rising cost of EnergyEnergy
Major economic trends: E2 - the Experimental monetary system
Major economic trends: E3 - where are we in the Economic cycle?
We know that from boom to bust in the stock market is usually a period of about 18 years. The bull market began in 1982…or 1975…depending on how you look at it. It ended in 2000, as much as a quarter of a century later. The bear market that began in 2000 was held off – but not reversed -- by the biggest flood of liquidity in human history.
E4 - the Exodus of money from West to East
Is the Chinese economy dangerously exposed to a slowdown in U.S. consumption? Yes.
E5 - the decline of the American Empire
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