I’ve got a spare moment right now, while I’m waiting for demonstrations at Tahrir to heat up, so let me describe a bit of how I arrived and what I saw yesterday. I was in Davos and so flew from Zurich, and my plane to Cairo was just about empty. It was a huge plane (presumably because of the need to fly a lot of people out), but only a few scattered passengers. Some of the passengers were Egyptians trying to return to be a part of history – but most of the passengers were reporters pretending to be tourists. One American camera crew was pretending to be part of a wedding party, as a way to explain the cameras.
Some reporters have been turned back at the airport, but I had no trouble. The airport itself is jammed with foreigners trying to leave. People are sleeping on the floors, and at one point, when an announcement of a departing flight was made, a near riot broke out as people desperately crowded toward the gate.
I had dressed up for immigration, trying to look more like a banker than a journalist, and immigration hassled the person ahead of me but didn’t ask me any questions – just stamped my passport and let me go on. ATM’s weren’t working and the hotel counters were closed, and there weren’t many taxis at the airport. But I finally found one who took me to my hotel. That was my scariest moment in Egypt so far: my driver was a maniac.
The hotel turned out to be full of foreigners afraid to stay in their neighborhoods and waiting for flights out. I had made a reservation through Expedia, but the hotel (like the rest of Egypt) has no Internet and so had never heard of me. In the end, though, they found me a hotel room, and I scrounged up another taxi (who cheerfully overcharged me) and set off for Tahrir Square. I had lived for a year in the Bab el Luq neighborhood right next to Tahrir, so I tried to find my old apartment building. But tanks block some streets, and local residents have set up roadblocks on every other intersection. Every 100 yards, my taxi was stopped by these local roadblocks, set up by shopkeepers with clubs, iron rods, bats, machetes or an occasional gun. At first I was worried that I’d be robbed by these armed vigilantes, but in fact they were polite and very welcoming of journalists. But they’re also scared and armed, and there are inevitably going to be some accidents.
These roadblocks are the result of mysterious looting and attacks in a number of neighborhoods. I checked with my network of friends in Cairo, and heard about shootings in almost every neighborhood. The assumption is that some attacks are by criminals and looters, but perhaps some as well are by Mubarak’s police forces trying to create chaos that will justify a crackdown. There’s no proof of that, but it seems to be a plausible guess.
The atmosphere in Tahrir is festive and exhilarating. The army has tanks and armed soldiers, but they are friendly to the protesters, and many people take photos with them. At night, long after curfew, the mood is especially celebratory: people have campfires and sing songs, and everybody wants to give interviews and denounce Mubarak.
The people I talked to mostly insisted that the army would never open fire on civilians. I hope they’re right. To me, the scene here is eerily like that of Tiananmen Square in the first week or so after martial law was declared on May 20, 1989, when soldiers and citizens cooperated closely. But then the Chinese government issued live ammunition and ordered troops to open fire, and on the night of June 3 to 4, they did – and the result was a massacre.
In the past, the army famously refused President Sadat’s order to crack down on bread riots, and maybe they won’t crack down this time. But I’ve seen this kind of scenario unfolding before in Indonesia, South Korea, Mongolia, Thailand, Taiwan and China, and the truth is that sometimes troops open fire and sometimes they don’t. As far as I can see, Mubarak’s only chance to stay in power is a violent crackdown – otherwise, he has zero chance of remaining president. And he’s a stubborn old guy: he may well choose to crack heads; of course, whether the army would follow orders to do so is very uncertain. The army is one of the few highly regarded institutions in Egyptian society, and massacres would end that forever.
One troubling sign is that the government isn’t showing signs of backing down. It used fighter planes to buzz Tahrir, in what surely seems an effort to intimidate protesters. It moved the curfew even earlier today, to 3 pm. It has sent the police back into some areas. The Internet remains shut off. And the state media continue to be full of lies. None of that sounds like a government preparing to bow to the power of the people.
So, stay tuned. The hard part for me as a journalist is getting the word out. My mobile phones are working, but the Internet is down. So I have been going somewhere where I can get access to a (very slow!) satellite phone. But, especially after dark and after curfew, you think twice about making the journey. When I do get access, I tweet at http://www.twitter.com/nickkristof and post at http://www.facebook.com/kristof. So join me and let’s watch history unfold here in Cairo.
Some reporters have been turned back at the airport, but I had no trouble. The airport itself is jammed with foreigners trying to leave. People are sleeping on the floors, and at one point, when an announcement of a departing flight was made, a near riot broke out as people desperately crowded toward the gate.
I had dressed up for immigration, trying to look more like a banker than a journalist, and immigration hassled the person ahead of me but didn’t ask me any questions – just stamped my passport and let me go on. ATM’s weren’t working and the hotel counters were closed, and there weren’t many taxis at the airport. But I finally found one who took me to my hotel. That was my scariest moment in Egypt so far: my driver was a maniac.
The hotel turned out to be full of foreigners afraid to stay in their neighborhoods and waiting for flights out. I had made a reservation through Expedia, but the hotel (like the rest of Egypt) has no Internet and so had never heard of me. In the end, though, they found me a hotel room, and I scrounged up another taxi (who cheerfully overcharged me) and set off for Tahrir Square. I had lived for a year in the Bab el Luq neighborhood right next to Tahrir, so I tried to find my old apartment building. But tanks block some streets, and local residents have set up roadblocks on every other intersection. Every 100 yards, my taxi was stopped by these local roadblocks, set up by shopkeepers with clubs, iron rods, bats, machetes or an occasional gun. At first I was worried that I’d be robbed by these armed vigilantes, but in fact they were polite and very welcoming of journalists. But they’re also scared and armed, and there are inevitably going to be some accidents.
These roadblocks are the result of mysterious looting and attacks in a number of neighborhoods. I checked with my network of friends in Cairo, and heard about shootings in almost every neighborhood. The assumption is that some attacks are by criminals and looters, but perhaps some as well are by Mubarak’s police forces trying to create chaos that will justify a crackdown. There’s no proof of that, but it seems to be a plausible guess.
The atmosphere in Tahrir is festive and exhilarating. The army has tanks and armed soldiers, but they are friendly to the protesters, and many people take photos with them. At night, long after curfew, the mood is especially celebratory: people have campfires and sing songs, and everybody wants to give interviews and denounce Mubarak.
The people I talked to mostly insisted that the army would never open fire on civilians. I hope they’re right. To me, the scene here is eerily like that of Tiananmen Square in the first week or so after martial law was declared on May 20, 1989, when soldiers and citizens cooperated closely. But then the Chinese government issued live ammunition and ordered troops to open fire, and on the night of June 3 to 4, they did – and the result was a massacre.
In the past, the army famously refused President Sadat’s order to crack down on bread riots, and maybe they won’t crack down this time. But I’ve seen this kind of scenario unfolding before in Indonesia, South Korea, Mongolia, Thailand, Taiwan and China, and the truth is that sometimes troops open fire and sometimes they don’t. As far as I can see, Mubarak’s only chance to stay in power is a violent crackdown – otherwise, he has zero chance of remaining president. And he’s a stubborn old guy: he may well choose to crack heads; of course, whether the army would follow orders to do so is very uncertain. The army is one of the few highly regarded institutions in Egyptian society, and massacres would end that forever.
One troubling sign is that the government isn’t showing signs of backing down. It used fighter planes to buzz Tahrir, in what surely seems an effort to intimidate protesters. It moved the curfew even earlier today, to 3 pm. It has sent the police back into some areas. The Internet remains shut off. And the state media continue to be full of lies. None of that sounds like a government preparing to bow to the power of the people.
So, stay tuned. The hard part for me as a journalist is getting the word out. My mobile phones are working, but the Internet is down. So I have been going somewhere where I can get access to a (very slow!) satellite phone. But, especially after dark and after curfew, you think twice about making the journey. When I do get access, I tweet at http://www.twitter.com/nickkristof and post at http://www.facebook.com/kristof. So join me and let’s watch history unfold here in Cairo.
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