Iran: Here We Go Again

story by Nick van der Leek

Iraq is a dress rehearsal for Iran and the threatres beyond

Last week President Bush once again unveiled his National Security Strategy – and there were no surprises. He described the report as a Wartime Strategy. Once again he made the case for the war on terror. Pointing the finger sharply at Iran, Bush said America has no greater enemy, than Iran, with its ideology of hate and murder, that Iran is freedom’s enemy, and a supporter of terror. He warned that if negotiations fail, there will be a confrontation, because, he reminded us, America maintains its right to preemptive attack as a means of defending the safety of the United States. Sound familiar?

Meanwhile, foreign investors are getting itchy about America, at a time when America can least afford it.

Once more, people who have the time to think about what they’re reading in the newspapers might stumble on the question: “Is Bush stupid?” He may be, but it’s doubtful (though possible) that the entire administration is. So what are they thinking? I thought I’d try a stab at it.

Firstly, we’re told that we’re in a war. A war on terror. Sorry to waste the time of people who often discuss these points, but for those who don’t, a war on disease (take AIDS or H5N1), or a war on poverty, might yield better results, and actually save lives and do humanity (that means all human beings) a tremendous service. The nice thing about calling it a war on terror, as opposed to say a war on a particularly country, is that it can possibly include everyone, or anyone, whenever you want it to.

You can make candid arguments for why you feel threatened by any region that might have a weapon, and a weapon that might be used against you. So the nomenclature ‘War on Terror’ is nice, if you’re a warmonger. Bush is, and the Christian fundamentalists that back him, are too, though they might not know it, or admit it.

Of course, if you or I walked around with that attitude on the street, saying, ‘I’m an individual combatant of terror’, and imbued with a license to kill, exercised our option to preemptively attack people based on private judgments about how threatening we thought they were, well, you or I would quickly be removed from public contact and isolated in some way, probably jailed. The world at the mercy of the greatest superpower ever, bristling with nuclear weapons and antagonistic policy turns precariously on its axis each day. With American policy, such as it is, it is a far more dangerous planet than the one 66 years ago, when Germany started looking around its borders in 1939.

A simple test whether American Imperialism towards Iran makes any sense, is to apply all their rhetoric to North Korea. North Korea has nuclear weapons. They brag about this fact. North Korea has a cruel dictator. North Korea poses a threat to South Korea, principally Seoul, and also to Japan. America isn’t interested in North Korea. America would like to ignore the North Koreans, if they’d just be quiet and play hide-away hermits, America can go on with its business elsewhere.

Let’s quickly recap what happened in Iraq, so we know what the sequence of events will be for Iran. We’ll be informed of plenty of discussions and negotiations, and the UN will make an appearance, and perhaps they will make some or other statement. This is to get the tacit or implied support of the people. The president and government is powerful, but it needs the okay from its citizens (that’s us – it’s us who really hold the power) to do what it wants to do. Via a flood of messages carefully orchestrated through the media we’ll be reminded time and time again of brutal dictatorships, individual acts of terror and nastiness and the imminent threat of nuclear weapons from Iraq (Iran).

The UN will be cited often and possibly some resolution will be passed. Their involvement simply makes it look as though some genuine efforts at diplomacy are on the table. America will demand results, will set deadlines, will set terms and Iraq (Iran) will ‘violate’ these. All malevolent responses Iraq (Iran) makes will be broadcast and recycled loudly and clearly so that Americans will feel as threatened and as unsafe as possible. Finally, a deadline will expire and America, without any choice, acting to defend itself, will attack Iraq (Iran).

While this happens, the American public (and world opinion) will have the opportunity to stand up as a nation (as nations) and say, “Stop this madness. We don’t want a war with Iran.” But will they? Will we?

Meanwhile, people will forget that America is the country attacking another, much smaller, much weaker country, outside of their own territory, with far greater firepower and weaponry than that country. Effectively, we’re talking about a slaughter. Another name for slaughter is terror, but no one in Texas or Kansas ever thinks of American soldiers as terrorists– those are just Jihadists and Muslim Fanatics. No Christian thinks of themselves as authorizing brutal murder based on apocalyptic rationales – they simply think of themselves as ‘us’ (US) and the threat, as ‘them’, the enemy.

Now for a few insights. America doesn’t really care about democracy in Iraq or anywhere else in the world. But using the words ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ have been useful excuses to invade countries, pretending to want to democratize the locals, and set them free. Of course, if Iraq manages to set up a successful democracy, America will take credit for it. They’d like stability in Iraq, and Iran, but what’s really happening is America is waving a red blanket at the world and its competitors (Iraq and Iran are not truly enemies of America as much as an elephant and a bird and a tortoise are enemies), meanwhile, beyond that diversion the US is really trying to secure access to oil. It’s the oil stupid, and Bush knows how crucial it is to maintaining the American way of life.

America is the world’s largest consumer of energy, and largest polluter, and it’s decided, now that these resources are less plentiful, the US is going to make sure the US gets all the US needs. They’re there to do the job of securing the oil supplies for American and, so far, the world’s interest. At this point, they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t, but they obviously believe, more damned if they don’t.

America has decided that war is worth it. They’ve decided that they’re strong enough to get what they want, and they aim to keep it that way. It makes a little bit of sense. Except that the odds are, when you wage war constantly, where your weapons are not only missiles deployed on foreign people, but deceit sowed amongst your own constituents, then you run the risk, over the longer term, of reaping the whirlwind. America needs Osama bin Laden out there, alive, so ordinary American citizens will let them pursue what they really want to pursue.

In time, the pretense of a war on terror (terrorism – unhappy groups causing violence against an associated regime, is like prostitution, it will always be part of society) and the crying wolf over nuclear weapons will manifest more and more, as disenfranchised people all over the world grow increasingly resistant to the American menace.

When Iraq invaded Kuwait, it was actually because Kuwait was stealing Iraqi oil. How? By drilling horizontal wells into Iraqi oil fields. Iraq’s response provided America with an excuse – a fairly decent one – to get involved in the region. Then, after 9/11, when mostly Saudi hijackers flew jets into New York and Washington, Bush thought he had another reason. Turned out he didn’t, but he manufactured a license, and now that the war is there, Americans are sort of going along with it. They’ll go along with the foray into Iran, if they’re able to watch enough TV and manage to go to bed each night, without waking up.

The reason the rest of the world goes along with America (and by rest I mean Britain, Europe, Australia and the West) is because America’s involvement in the Middle East keeps the price of oil cheap. Russia and China are letting the big dog eat its bone, but they’re getting hungry too.

America is, up until now, just a ferocious Guard Dog. They’re not stealing oil, just policing our access to it. It’s possible that many people all over the world would endorse this aggression, this blood for oil, so that they can pick up the kids from school and eat a caesar salad without paying more than they want to. I wonder, are you one of them, and if you knew you were, would you change your mind?