Just as the energy debate in Washington is focusing in on the question of our addiction and dependence, the world's scientific community is making sure we don't forget what some, like Tony Blair's science advisor, consider to be a bigger threat than terrorism: global warming.
A BBC article published today reports that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will announce that global warming is unequivocally driven by athropogenic greenhouse gas emissions; in other words, by human activity. Gone is the carefully hedged possibility that there may be natural factors at play, like changes in solar intensity or cyclical terrestrial processes. This problem is home-made. Here's a snip:
The BBC has learnt the report will state that greenhouse gas emissions are the only explanation for changing patterns of weather across the globe.
It will say rising concentrations of gases such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere must be the cause of simultaneous freak patterns in sea ice, glaciers, droughts, floods, ecosystems, ocean acidification and wildlife migrations.
Since the question for the scientific community is not whether, but how fast, man-made climate change is occurring, the question before politicians must be not whether, but how, to adapt the world's interconnected economies. Skipping ahead a few steps, leaders are about to realize that global warming has become a major geo-political issue. The big question will be: How do the big economies, the U.S., Europe, Japan and China adapt in concert?
Adaptation, adaptation, adaptation. Whether our goal is to forstall or to mitigate catastrophic warming, this is now an issue of national security. Diane Sawyer, commenting on her own network's reporting of the likelihood that the Greenland ice sheet will melt and raise the world's sea levels, summarized the threat well: "21 feet." In addition, a Pentagon-sponsored study showed that should such a melting come to pass, international energy, food, and freshwater supplies would be so disrupted as to cause major regional wars and large-scale population migrations away from the coasts here in the U.S.
This time, however, the tools for securing our nation will be economic and they will be domestic. American leadership in adapting--at home first--to the global warming threat can turn the tide in this battle. And the military will have to take a back seat. Done right, adaptation, with its necessary focus on renewable energy and sustainable development, will also undermine the appeal of Islamic extremism and strategic competition with China.
The timing is actually quite propitious. George Bush is daily demonstrating the impossibility of defending our current economic engine, designed in the late 1940s and the 1950s, from the massive changes in the global economy and now, the global ecosystem. It is time for a fulsome re-think about how we can shape a sustainable market economy and integrating the real and growing threat of climate change into our planning is essential.
With two-thirds of Americans wanting a new national direction, the political incentive is there. In fact, there is the chance for a new grand bargain among the majority in America that listen to scientists seriously, those who would rather invest in long-term sustainable prosperity over short-sighted profits, and those who want good jobs, safe communities, and a secure future.
What is missing so far is the leadership to get us there.
--Patrick Doherty | Wednesday, March 1, 2006 10:39 AM
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