Zimbabwe Prepares For 2nd Election

"The MDC ... will contest the run-off. I am ready, and the people are ready for the final round," Tsvangirai said at a press conference in Pretoria. But Tsvangirai has set conditions for his participation in the election. He has demanded that the media and other international observers be granted full access to ensure a fair ballot. He also requested the SADC to send peacekeepers to verify the credibility of the election.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) a government run body will decide the date for the 2nd election. Legally parties have 3 weeks grace until a second round election is held, but the ZEC also has the power to postpone dates as it sees fit. While the opposition leader’s demands might have an impact on when the election takes place, given Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa noncommittal response to Tsvangirai’s conditions, it seems unlikely.

The background to the extended electionioneering has been President Mugade biding his time, patiently delaying and putting off announcements, while a shipment of weapons has been steadily seeking to dock at various points on the subcontinent in order to make delivery. Currently the An Yue Jiang is cruising off Africa’s West Coast, along the Congolese Coast, after authorities spotted the ship on April 25 attempting to dock at the Angolan port city of Luanda.

The same ship previously attempted to offload its weapons (including Ak-47 rifles and 3 million rounds of ammunition) at the South African port of Durban, but was refused. At the time, inexplicably, South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki offered no resistance, indicating instead that the transaction was between China and Zimbabwe and South Africa would not interfere. Dock workers in Durban refused to co-operate, and the ship set sail, apparently for China, but later appeared on the opposite side of the subcontinent.

During the period subsequent to the first election, Mugabe has bought himself time to establish additional controls over the beleaguered electorate in Zimbabwe. On a daily basis reports filter in of MDC activists that have been murdered. It is difficult to predict which result will spill the least blood: a Mugabe victory or Tsvangirai winning. With Mugabe holding all the keys and cards, and imminently capable of re-arming his militia’s (like the war-veterans), a Tsvangirai win will in all likelihood be either foiled through hokey administration, or squashed militarily. It has been pbvious thus far that Robert Mugabe does not intend to lose or give up his strangehold.

More troubling is that Tsvangirai, who has been beaten before by Mugabe’s cronies, faces a return to his homeland with Mugabe still shaking a big stick, and having communicated information regarding the recruiting of snipers. As such the opposition leader faces a real risk of assassination following his return to Zimbabwe to contest a second election.