IEA inquiry into whether oil supplies will run dry by 2012

SIMON BAIN

May 26 2008

The International Energy Agency has ordered an inquiry into whether the world could run out of oil in four years' time, it was reported yesterday.

The IEA has concerns about what might happen in 2012, when demand for oil, boosted by the rapid growth of the Chinese and Indian economies, is expected to have reached 95 million barrels a day. Global supply at that point is projected at only 96 million barrels a day. Such a thin margin would be vulnerable to any sudden supply crisis in volatile countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela or Iraq, now estimated to have overtaken Saudi Arabia as the biggest oil nation.

The IEA said its inquiries would form part of short and long-term forecasts to be published in July and again in November. Its energy research chief, Lawrence Eagles, said: "Up to now we have believed that supply can cope with demand. One caveat is that we don't know for certain whether estimates of reserves in countries such as Saudi Arabia are entirely accurate.

NVDL: Weren't they saying like a minute ago that we were fine until 2040 or 2070? Now suddenly it's 2012. Errr...I'm looking at my watch. That's 4 years from now...not 40...4.

By the way, we will never make 90mbpd, we peaked at about 87.5 mbpd, [In 2006, the world oil production took a downturn from 84.631 to 84.597 million barrels per day] and we've fallen off since. 87 is the most we'd ever produce, and anything above that is an interesting if pointless fantasy. People are also saying that a US and UK recession will bring oil prices down. I'm no so sure its true. When you starve a drug addict of a fix, do they want it more or less? So now, oil will start galloping soon. It's stuff too precious to be driving out to the movies, or the mall. This stuff is used to grow food, to fight the insects that eat crops, and we drive it out on happy holidays and to get take-out. Very silly humans!