The 35 percent attack rate used in the report is based on the 1968 flu pandemic, which was considered mild. It assumes an outbreak would last around eight weeks.
Levi said the number was consistent with World Health Organization statements predicting that up to a third of the world's population will become sick with the new H1N1 virus that was declared a pandemic in June.
SHOOT: I think in South Africa there is a sense that it is over, it was overblown etc. Not too many people are aware of the continuity of a new virus. It doesn't just disappear, in fact, if anything, it reassorts, and gets better at what it does, and the concern must be, once it is widespread enough, it develops increased virulence. It's logical to expect that in time, it must evolve into something different, and quite possibly, present greater problems to infected human beings.
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Fifteen states could run out of hospital beds and 12 more could fill 75 percent of their beds with swine flu sufferers if 35 percent of Americans catch the virus in coming weeks, a report released Thursday said.
The study, based on estimates from a computer model developed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, shows the strain hospitals and health departments could face as a second wave of swine flu surges.
"Our point in doing this is not to cry Chicken Little but really to point out the potential even a mild pandemic can have and how readily that can overwhelm the healthcare delivery system," Jeffrey Levi, director of Trust for America's Health, which sponsored the report, said in a telephone briefing.
According to the report, the number of people hospitalized could range from 168,025 in California to 2,485 in Wyoming, and many states may face shortages of beds.
"These systems are untested, and glitches are sure to arise along the way," Levi said.
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clipped from www.reuters.com
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