clipped from finance.yahoo.com
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Monday, October 19, 2009
As economy 'recovers', oil jumps above $79
SHOOT: I don't believe there is a popular consensus that it was energy prices that causes the crash and recession. The average person will say it was the subprime crisis, or that it was derivative trading and speculation that drove energy prices up. There's some merit in these arguments, but I suspect not much. What we're seeing is fairly high energy prices [$70] during very weak economic activity. $70 is high. Airlines are generally considered to not be viable above $80. So you see marginal improvements in the economy, and the energy prices immediately react. What does that tell you? Inflation is a certainty going forward. And if we want to grow, and be profitably, we'll cut the only other thing left to cut - which is staffing. What do you get then? Stagflation.
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