Sunday, October 04, 2009

KRUGMAN: Enthusiasm about the recovery has blown way past the reality

SHOOT: I'd differ with the admins projections. In 2010 unemployment will be slightly higher than the average for 2009. Same goes for 2011, unless some magic elixir, some fundamental shift takes place in our economics, in the multiplicity of all our arrangements. I don't see that happening. Instead I see us doing what most people who are addicted do. They stop at the overdose point. In other words, when the system crashes. It may be the only way to stop it. The addiction in plain language is GREED.
clipped from finance.yahoo.com

Paul Krugman observes what the market noticed yesterday, which is that enthusiasm about the recovery has blown way past the reality.

Specifically, he's worried about unemployment:

[T]he administration’s own economic projection -- a projection that takes into account the extra jobs the administration says its policies will create -- is that the unemployment rate, which was below 5 percent just two years ago, will average 9.8 percent in 2010, 8.6 percent in 2011, and 7.7 percent in 2012.

This should not be considered an acceptable outlook. For one thing, it implies an enormous amount of suffering over the next few years. Moreover, unemployment that remains that high, that long, will cast long shadows over America’s future.


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