Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Is oil's real value $7 or $70?

SHOOT: This guy makes the case that lots of money can be made because oil prices are so overvalued. Really? I guess he forgot to factor in higher extraction and refining costs. I believe the real value of the black stuff is around $200-$250, but corruption, and greasing hands is keeping prices artificially low [which benefits the east and enriches only the elites in the Middle East].
But according to a recent Wall Street Journal article, oil production from Cantarell peaked in 2005 and has fallen 75% since then. The golden goose is a dead duck... and its decline cost the government $14 billion this year.
The same thing is happening in Indonesia, Iran, and Venezuela. Indonesia went from a proud member of OPEC to a net oil importer. Venezuelan production peaked in 1997 and is down 27% since then. Iran's production peaked in 2005, but has only fallen 2% so far... The worst is yet to come there.
Right now is a terrific time to buy these kinds of oil plays. On average, the market values oil companies at about $14 per barrel of reserves. But you can buy EOR companies for half that – about $7 per barrel of reserves.
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