Catalyst for a profound change in the global economy: decisions taken in the next two or three years will shape the next two or three decades

Andrew Simms, head of policy at the New Economics Foundation thinktank, says: "One major thing that will describe the landscape in 2029 is that we will be beyond the point of peak oil. That will be the trigger for so many dominoes to fall." Decisions made in the next few years, he adds, will be critical. "There is the risk of enormous knock-on effects on trade and food supply, with the food price volatility of the last year looking like a vicar's tea party."

He believes food security will replace gross domestic product as the yardstick of success, and there will be an emphasis on the new "three Rs" – reduce, repair, recycle.

SHOOT: Unfortunately we seem not to be making any of those hard decisions. The major decision is the obvious one. Fewer cars on the road, living arrangements designed to be more walkable, more multi-disciplinary. Do you see these conversations anywhere in the media? No.. We're only starting to consider that climate change might be a reality. Two or three years from now we will more in a response and a reactionary mode, and I predict we'll remain on the backfoot for a long, long time. We're out of money, out of options, with too many needy people out there. Some anticipated this, but nobody listened because nobody wanted to...

clipped from www.guardian.co.uk The wrenching financial crisis of the past two years will provide the catalyst for a profound change in the global economy – which, according to the man running the World Bank, will see China and India become established centres of power, the dollar eclipsed as the sole reserve currency, and Latin America, south-east Asia and Africa emerge as new sources of growth. But as he surveys the wreckage caused by what the bank and its sister organisation, the International Monetary Fund, agree is the most severe crisis since the devastation caused by the second world war, Robert Zoellick is surprisingly upbeat about the future. Asked by the Observer how he envisages the global economy in 20 years' time, Zoellick says: "There will certainly be a larger role for the emerging powers, there will be multipolar sources of growth, there will be more south-south trade between developing countries. "There is an inevitability about this [shift in power to Asia]," says Hawksworth.