Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Why the Sudden Run Up in Natural Gas Prices?

SHOOT: Some are saying NG is a substitute for [dirty] coal. Whatever the reason, this is interesting.
clipped from seekingalpha.com

A curiosity: Over the period from Friday, September 4, through Thursday, September 10, the price of UNG units in the market ran up from the close on September 3 of $9.01 to a close on the 10th (the Thursday of the weekly EIA NG reports) of $11.18, a 24.08% increase.

This was accompanied by a puzzling run-up in NG prices. (Click chart to enlarge.)

Natural Gas HH Continuus Contract 9/11/2009

The reason I say "puzzling" is that the weekly EIA summary report for the previous week, issued 9/3, indicated gas in storage still 18% above 5 year averages and reported a net injection of 65 Bcf, slightly higher than the 5 year average of 64 Bcf but below last year's 92 Bcf by 29%. The way net injections have trended over the last five or six weeks, I think there is absolutely nothing unexpected or unusual about this net injection. Storage was 17.8% above the 5 year average, a slight drop from the highs in the previous weeks. Still, nothing to cause one to turn hand-springs over.

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