Friday, September 26, 2008

'Analysts' say Inflation may have peaked. Yeah right

NVDL: These 'analysts' and 'experts' arethe same gurus who have been telling us about oil bubbles and that the housing thing was no big deal. Inflation has a long way to go, because oil prices have a long way to go. If oil prices come down it will be because the entire economy folds, but in real economic terms - if you have a job oil will be expensive (relative to that) and if you don't, oil might be cheaper, but relative to an unemployed person trying to survive arecession - still pretty expensive.

When I see articles like this I wonder whether government has asked that someone write something to 'inspire confidence' irrespective of the the facts, or whether a journalist decided to get someone's attention (by writing what he thinks everyone wants to hear).
SA’S producer price inflation accelerated slightly less than expected last month, and analysts said this key measure of pipeline inflation pressures might now have peaked. Producer prices rose 19,1% last month from a year earlier, its highest since a change in the basket in January, Statistics SA said today. That compared with a consensus forecast of 19,2% and July’s 18,9%.

“We should see a gradual improvement, not much initially, but it will gather momentum as we go into 2009,” he said.

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