Mbeki - in my opinion

What do South Africans think of Thabo Mbeki's departure? How do they feel about their president of 15 years making a sudden and not very dignified exit? I don't think too many South Africans will miss him. There aren't likely to be too many people talking of Mbeki's legacy (what's that) either. This after all is a man who spent R90 million constructing a wall around his house. Taxpayers money, for a wall. There is a tremendous metaphor in that. Mbeki was all about walls, and aloof, and being coldly disconnected from a population that was and remains desperately in need of compassion.

The Weekender's Brent Meersman elucidates a disturbing level of violence which one feels, as an academic, Mbeki became somewhat habituated to...and in this respect, perhaps Mbeki mirrors the numb the jaded South Africans who fail to see the crime, the AIDS, the destitution for what it really is. Meersman writes:

When the death sentence hung over his father, although mounting a march to 10 Downing Street to highlight his plight, Mbeki stated coolly that the “revolution produces new leaders all the time”.

Mbeki’s brother, Jama, was murdered, but Mbeki has not prosecuted the matter for political reasons. Jama’s widow sadly observes: “In the Mbeki family there is no (such) family value. They believe in politics (more) than real life.”

Perhaps the most moving accounts are about his only child Kwanda, conceived when Mbeki was 16, which came to light in testimony given by the mother, Olive Mpahlwa, at the Truth and Reconciliation Commission . Kwanda disappeared in 1981 and evidence suggests a violent death.

One wonders whether the death - a hit style killing - of one of Mbeki's closest bodyguards suggests a 'warning message' from the powers that be. The message would be obvious: "We've killed your bodyguard. We're asking you to resign? Do you think you have a choice?"

People who may sympathise with Mbeki having to quit under these conditions ought to remember that Mbeki's arch-rival, Chris Hani, was assassinated, paving the way for Mbeki to become President. There is also the Selebi case, where the police commissioner himself was protected by Mbeki despite alleged links to gangster/drug dealer, Glen Aggliotti (implicated in the Kebble murder - a hit that has still not been resolved).

There is also the fact that Mbeki is pals with one of Africa's most loathed dictators, Robert Mugabe. The deal brokered by Mbeki suggests less that Mbeki orchestrated a landmark agreement, than that Mugabe and Mbeki colluded successfully against opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. In fact Mbeki's 'quiet diplomacy' in Zimbabwe exposed most of all Mbeki's indecisiveness.

While many may be quick to judge Mbeki on an apparent lack of resolve, what is not known is to what extent Mbeki was boxed in by loyalties and allegiances which, if he stepped over these, might have - or Mbeki might at least have suspected at much - that failure to tow the line might have led to diabolical plots against him.

Mbeki was educated in London, and had military training in Moscow. His parents were members of the Communist Party. Mbeki shared the views of the Christian OR Tambo, and was also a member of the SACP - although comparing the Communist party to its cousin in Moscow has always been misleading.

There is also Mbeki's strange inability to see a relationship between HIV and AIDS - an unfortunate view which has not benefited the over 5 million AIDS sufferers - reflecting, unsurprisingly, the highest infection rate in the world.

While Mbeki was fortunate to enjoy what can be considered benign economic conditions, these arguably had very little to do with him. In fact, it has been postulated that if anything Mbeki had a ruinous impact on the South Africa economy via his involvement in the Arms Deal. An investigation found that the national defence force needed R8 billion to upgrade all military equipment. Franny Rabkin, also from the The Weekender, writes:

Feinstein said the ANC entered government in 1994 with a commitment to cut arms expenditure and focus on social expenditure.

He said a comprehensive defence review was conducted, leading to the conclusion that the defence force needed R8bn to modernise its equipment for what was required of it: to defend SA against threats and to be capable of peace-keeping initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa.

But now, Feinstein said, “I estimate that 10 days ago, the arms deal was probably costing SA up to about R65bn. And it is quite likely that by 2018 the ultimate cost will exceed R100bn.”

Which raises the following question. What did Mbeki deliver in terms of social expenditure? How many houses were built under his governance (compared to the self declared targets).

...Premier Sello Moloto noted that formal dwellings had increased from 72% in 2001 to 83.2% in 2007, while informal dwellings like shacks had decreased from 7.1% in 2002 to 5.5% in 2007.

"Traditional dwellings have also decreased from 20.2% in 2001 to 9% in 2007," Moloto said.

He said the percentage of households using electricity for lighting rose from 62.9% in 2001 to 81% in 2007, while the percentage of households who had access to piped water increased from 78.1% in 2001 to 83.6% in 2007.

"This is the kind of progress we need in order to move closer to meeting the targets we have set for ourselves," he said.

It is interesting to note that over the last 5 year period, the number of informal dwellings of shacks decreased by a mere 1.6%.

Then there is also the electricity crisis that hit South Africa (and remains a problem) - something that occurred entirely during Mbeki's watch.

So Mbeki's reign is a mixed bag of mostly rotten apples. The question is, will the next President do any better? This is in fact a very worrying prospect given the ease with which Zimbabwe's leaders have had the license and non-interference to run the country into the ground (a handful of politicians enriching themselves while their miserable countrymen starve). On the one hand, Zuma does offer a more connected, more compassionate person to the country. On the other, their are serious doubts about his trustworthiness and even worse, about whether an uneducated man in the 21st century ought to be allowed to govern. Zuma has been educated to Standard 3 level (Grade 5).

A weak comparison can be made in that Trevor Manuel - who has done a sterling and commendable job as finance minister - only had a semester of economics to work with. It has to be borne in mind though, that Manuel nevertheless had tertiary education (including law and engineering), whereas Zuma is almost entirely a political animal. Given Africa's legacy, and Zuma's history thus far, it is not hard to imagine that after Mbeki, things may go from bad to worse. Zuma after all has pursued the media (eager to sue numerous newspapers, including the columnist David Bullard).

While South Africans eagerly bid Mbeki farewell, it is not inconceivable that in a few short years from now, South Africans will rue the day that Mbeki left.