SHOOT: Important to read this.
This is really important to understand. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a stock market crash. The odds of a crash based upon the history since 1985 is 27.0 percent. That means the odds we will not have a crash are quite high, at 73.0 percent. However, since a stock market crash is akin to economic death in many circles, you can look at the situation like this. If you were hearing from your doctor that the surgury you are contemplating stands a 27.0 percent of you dying, that becomes a very high percentage probability – one you likely do not want to take if the surgury is not absolutely necessary. A 27.0 percent probability of a stock market crash is extremely high when you consider that there have been only seven over the past twenty-two years, and the normal odds of a crash happening randomly are only about one-tenth of one percent. |
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