WARNING: Irrational markets can rise, and in doing so attract more irrationality

Commodity prices have risen purely as a result of growth – but not growth within the U.S. Nearly 100% of world growth over the next 6-8 quarters will likely come from the emerging markets. And as the emerging markets become bigger and bigger players, their need for commodities will become even greater.

This is bad news for the U.S.

High commodity prices caused growth in the U.S. to be subdued during the 2000s. Now, with the emerging markets growing larger and driving commodity prices higher, U.S. growth will be even more restrained.

Of course, the danger is that you could turn out to be the greatest fool of all, and be left holding too many shares when the bubble pops.

We don't want you to be caught in that trap. We want you to look back on this period and be glad someone warned you in time.

Everything tells us that we are headed for major trouble in the stock market, and that our economy is far from being out of the woods. You are better off being selective and focusing very strongly in commodity and emerging market plays.

SHOOT: Useful article, but I don't believe this pop will be the last. We'll see a succession of step-down cycles, each crash preceded by high energy prices, which will defeat more and more companies and more and more conventional commerce.

clipped from seekingalpha.com Looking at stock market commentary, we continue to be amazed that no one mentions commodities. Bloomberg, Barron’s, and other major media invariably deal with commodities and stocks in separate columns and articles. Never do they discuss commodities and stocks together, in the context of their interrelationship. We think this is a serious mistake, for nothing matters more to the outlook for stock prices than commodities these days. And there's no asset group more important for you to own on a long-term basis than commodity plays. SLOW GROWTH AND HIGHER PRICES ARE IN STORE The 1970s were a notable time when we had soaring commodity prices which short-circuited GDP gains. We had a massive recession between 1973 and 1975 on the heels of OPEC's engineering a massive hike in oil prices. Our point is that the U.S. has become a non-player in the commodity dynamic. The real players are the emerging markets, which continue to grow like crazy.