Mexico, the US #2 crude supplier, sees production fall from 2.8 mbpd to 2.5 mbpd

SHOOT: It's 4.9% drop, which see going on for the next 3 years. I believe the estimate is conservative. I've seen numbers like 6% and 34% not in terms of projections, but based on past production. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=aQF381AACFAI

clipped from www.bloomberg.com Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s oil production may fall 4.9 percent next year as the nation faces the greatest “fiscal shock” in 30 years, Finance Minister Agustin Carstens told a Senate committee today. Lower output is costing the nation as much as 300 billion pesos ($23.05 billion) in lost sales annually and may create a deficit in the federal budget next year, Carstens said. Oil revenue funded 38 percent of the government’s budget last year. Mexico’s economy, the second-largest in Latin America, may have shrunk as much as 10.4 percent in the second quarter as remittances, foreign direct investment and exports fell, according to a government report last month. Standard & Poor’s in May placed Mexico’s credit rating on negative outlook as the government struggles to narrow its fiscal deficit. Output is slumping as production at Cantarell, the company’s largest field, drops at a rate twice as fast as forecast by Pemex. Last year, production slumped at the fastest rate since 1942.