Tuesday, August 11, 2009

I think what were doing now will either fail, or it will result in unbelievably high inflation – and tragically, maybe both. That would mean a depression and explosive inflation, which is frightening - Julian Robertson

Seekingalpha.com: Analysts Karen Weaver and Ying Shen forecast that the percentage of US homeowners suffering from negative equity will almost double to 48% in 2011 from 26% as at the end of March. “We predict the next phase of the housing decline will have a far greater impact on prime borrowers.” Prime conforming loans make up two thirds of the mortgage market. “For many, the home has morphed from piggy bank to albatross.”

SHOOT: I am somewhat comforted to note that many of my bleak-realistic views about the economy are in the minority. It's reassuring at times to think that reality will only condescend on us when it is so self-evident that people begin to give themselves over to it. So I find articles like this, that completely and rationally echo my sentiments, quite horrifying. It shows not only how plausible some of the ideas on SHOOT are [about the future], but that they imminent.
clipped from seekingalpha.com
How much of the bailout money is actually supporting companies that provide jobs? That was the question asked by entrepreneur Luke Johnson in his regular and typically outspoken column for the Financial Times last week. He answered it anecdotally, with reference to a “chilling conversation” with a senior banker, in which it emerged that almost three-quarters of the taxpayer lifeline provided to support British banks has gone to property lending. As Johnson sharply observes:
A distorting addiction to real estate is part of why it all went wrong in the first place.
You can give a banker money, but you cannot make him lend. Or at least, not to those causes most worthy of the aim. Gillian Tett, writing for the FT on Friday, pointed out that when Japanese bankers, mired in their own credit crisis, were ordered to lend to small businesses, they ended up directing loans to subsidiaries of Toyota (TM) – not exactly what their governmental overlords intended.
blog it

No comments: