Panarchy Theory - The more connected a system, the more prone it is for collapse to be transmitted through the entire syste m

The "truly catastrophic" occurs when many or all these cycles happen to synchronize at the end of their growth phases.

SHOOT: This was always the risk implicit in globalising our commerce and banking. Europe is discovering this by connecting their politics and other leadership structures. It can be a recipe for incredible tension.

clipped from www.canada.com As the forest ecosystem evolves and matures, its "connectedness" also increases -- the degree to which species become more and more linked and interdependent. In this late part of the growth phase, "the mechanisms of self regulation become highly diverse and finely tuned. Species and organisms are progressively more specialized and efficient in using the energy and nutrients available in their niche" (Ibid.). According to panarchy theory, the forest ecosystem begins to rigidify and may even lose diversity as each component becomes locked into its particular role in the functioning forest. The result is a reduction in the forest's capacity to respond to the impact of a shock. And the forest's high interconnectedness "helps any shock travel faster across the ecosystem" (Ibid.). In Holling's words, as the forest loses its resilience, it becomes "an accident waiting to happen" (Ibid.).