Friday, May 15, 2009

Mainstream suffering from Vanilla Reality [Sunny-side up]

SHOOT: In kindergarten terms, what causes someone to become very very overweight, to lose all their money, to get themselves full of mud? Well, a failure to anticipate. We have an erudite sense of reality that has nothing to do with simple reality. And sure enough, it seems that's the sickness we're suffering from. Distractions. Reality is not computer games, TV shows, a chemical romance or the movies. Reality is you sitting where you are, looking for answers when you already know what they. Look up at the ceiling. Do it. That's you, sitting in your building. That's reality.

What could happen?
Property crime will explode as citizens bitter over their own shattered dreams attempt to comfort themselves by taking what is not theirs. Mutinies and desertions will proliferate in an increasingly demoralized, over-stretched military, especially when states can no longer provide the educational and other benefits promised to their National Guard troops.
clipped from seekingalpha.com
Since the economy began sliding downhill in late 2007, mainstream economic and market experts have consistently erred on the sunny side.
As late as June 2008, mainstream consensus held that the U.S. was heading for a “soft landing” and would avoid recession. Several months later, the slump was acknowledged to have started in January 2008, but we were supposed to see renewed growth by mid-2009, with unemployment peaking in the eight-to-nine percent range. A quick “shovel-ready” stimulus bag was supposed to set us back on the road to prosperity.
In January, recovery projections were pushed forward to late 2009. Today, the consensus is for a mid-2010 recovery, with unemployment peaking at just over 10 percent. Clearly, the mainstream has struggled to catch up to reality for well over one year. What are the chances that they finally have it right this time?
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