SHOOT: This was clear early on when human to human transmission was quite obvious in Mexico. The WHO ought to declare this a PHASE 6 emergency before that's a foregone conclusion. |One cannot be too vigilant or too cautious when it comes to pathogens of this sort, that human beings have no immunity against.
Swine flu is likely to spread around the world in the next few months and infect one-third of the global population, according to the first detailed analysis of the spread of the virus published by British scientists.
The study by researchers at London's Imperial College, published in the journal Science, found that swine flu has "full pandemic potential", spreading easily from person to person and infecting around one in three of those who come into contact with it.
But the research's author, Professor Neil Ferguson, said it was too early to say whether the virus will cause deaths on a massive scale, or prove little more lethal than normal seasonal flu.
He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: "This virus really does have full pandemic potential. It is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world's population.
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