Energy prices - which way are they going to go?

How sudden the shortage occurs may have a big effect on price evolution. If supply shortages occur suddenly then the subsequent price spike will be followed by a price collapse. If supply shortages occur more gradually then price increases become more sticky.- Buster Cagney

SHOOT: Up and down, quite chaotically, but on average - UP.

clipped from www.theoildrum.com We cannot know precisely what path oil prices will take in the future, but one past example that is somewhat similar showed widely fluctuating prices. When whale oil (used for lamps) became scarce at the end of the 19th century, its prices fluctuated widely. The average price was higher than prior to the peak in production, but there was considerable variation: