I previously wrote that each day Israel occupies Gaza, they run the risk of the war escalating. The Middle East players know that the West is weak and would be more unwilling than ever to commit more forces (the US is mulling troop cuts from Iraq). And the death toll caused by the Israeli army hasn't earned them any more friends, but simply steeled the resolve of their surrounding neighbours.
I do believe the Mid-East players want to draw Israel out, and tactically it would make sense to hit them from various angles simultaneously. Iran, of course is waiting in the wings.
I said it was a very dangerous gambit to respond to a few missile lobs (killing less than 10 people) by launching a fullscale invasion simply because this invites an escalation.
The other aspect is the global scenario - Europe is facing an energy supply crunch, Russia is in dire financial straits, Pakistan is militating against India, the US is facing frinancial collapse, and many poorer countries are facing food shortages and riots. The temptation to wage war to escalate a war already started has never been higher. As such, Israel's gambit was ill-conceived (whatever their election goals).
JERUSALEM – Lebanese militants fired at least three rockets into northern Israel early Thursday, threatening to open a second front for the Jewish state as it pushed forward with its offensive in the Gaza Strip. Gaza militants fired a rocket barrage into southern Israel almost simultaneously.
There were no serious injuries in either attack. But the rockets on Israel's north raised the specter of renewed hostilities with Hezbollah, just 2 1/2 years after Israel battled the guerrilla group to a 34-day stalemate. Hezbollah started the 2006 war as Israel was battling Palestinian militants in Gaza.
Israel has repeatedly said it was prepared for a possible attack on the north since it launched its bruising campaign against Hamas militants in Gaza on Dec. 27. Israel has mobilized thousands of reserve troops for such a scenario, and leaders have warned Hezbollah of dire consequences if it enters the fighting.
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