The fact is, tonight's oil price is not the last, not for a while.
The fact is, crime is spreading to areas that have been relatively safe in the past.
The logic is that this making it harder for vast swathes of this country's population to simply survive.
The logic is that higher prices encourage and increase criminal behaviours.
We will probably see these hikes go on for the next 6 months, and if oil prices at Christmas haven't smashed through $150, we might experience a reprieve (meaning, a period where prices don't go up). Personally I think $150 by Christmas is a tame road for oil prices, and $200 is a matter of when, not if.
The implications are ominous. Even the current squeeze has not been completely absorbed into either the SA economy or the global economy. And there's the rub - it's happening simultaneously everywhere infecting everything. When I say everything I mean entire industries: like the entire airline industry, entire auto industry, entire agri--industry, supplyu chain based supermarkets and warehousing, courier services, tourism, banks, property markets. That's what I mean by everything. And everything aggreagtes into the economies of entire countries, and spreads around the world, which is why I say everywhere. Everything everywhere is affected by energy prices that are no longer cheap. It's the beginning of trouble and disorder locally and internationally. Did I say this is just the beginning? I think I did. I'll say it again: all this is just the beginning, Chapter One, of The Long Emergency.
[What is The Long Emergency? Read the article in Rolling Stone.]
Meanwhile car makers like Chrysler (the link represents a 2005 response to high fuel prices, but a similar response has been implemented in 2008 too, with immediate effect) and BMW - are offering 'fuel free driving deals' (for a full year of driving without paying to fill up) to postpone the impact of this assault on disposable income. This is absolute insanity of course, but junky consumers don't care...and of course, it will all end in tears.
GM touches near 54-year low
Ford US Sales Slid 28% In June; SUV Sales Plunge 55%
The critical impact of these price increases (for fuel and thus transport and food, even basic foodstuffs, electricity, and unaffordable cost of debt) is crime. I am not surprised to hear that crime in SA is up year on year, but I am surprised - and you will be too - when you see the extent of crime right now.
Pretoria one of SA's most dangerous
- KwaZulu-Natal recorded a 92,9 percent increase in business robberies (robberies increased from 997 to 1 923 in KwaZulu-Natal)
- Free State, Limpopo and the Northern, Western and Eastern Cape, although having relatively few attacks, recorded dramatic increases of 380,6 percent (62 to 298), 278,3 percent (83 to 314), 237,5 percent (16 to 54), 222,3 percent (197 to 635) and 102,5 percent (241 to 488) respectively
Car hijackings: 13 599; 14 201
House robberies: 12 761; 14 481 (up 13.5%)
Business robberies: 6 689; 9 862 (up 47.4%)
Bank robberies: 129; 144
4 children are murdered every day in SA, a 22.4% increase, and a 13.7% increase in the attempted murder of children.
In itself, the statistics for crimes against children ought to be ominous (and illuminating), because it is the youth that will inherit this country, and as such, will be a criminalised, abused, bruised and dysfunctional population - more than the current one anyway. The fact that children are being murdered shows the extent to which South Africans have lost their own humanity, humanity to their own blood (forget racism!)
And who were the common perpetrators behind the 'Xenophobic' attacks? That's right, teenagers, and in many cases, probably orphaned youngsters. It is with grim conviction then that I make the following prediction for the next six months to twenty-four months in South Africa:
- a resurgence in 'xenophobic/mob' violence, which will escalate over time, and spread to middle class (that is to say also white) neighborhoods.
In euphemistic speech, the impact of the high oil prices, bad weather and food crisis will come knocking on our doors, we will see it [them] standing on our driveways. This trend will intensify in lockstep with energy's drag effect on our economy. High fuel prices = higher likelihoods of being attacked in your own home. The real gloomy news is the energy spiral is permanent. This evening on the news I heard an analyst saying it's cyclical. Depressions, stuff like this, aren't cyclical in the sense that we ought to expect these conditions to be over in 5 or 10 years, perhaps even 20 years. Imagine a world with depleted energy. With the lights not working? How do you develop anything when you can't turn on the TV, or fire up your computer? It's a scenario that's increasingly likely because it's turning out that despite the obvious signals the media and the masses still haven't snapped to attention and altered working, living and consumption patterns. Governments are still making up their minds what the 'cause' is.
- There will be no demand destruction. The world will go to war over oil, and will remain at war probably beyond this generation. That war has already started, and a US foray in Iran is between 6-12 months away. We will certainly experience a nuclear exchange in our lifetimes.
As such:
- I have communicated with James Kunstler about what the best places may be to survive The Long Emergency. He feels the prospects in America, even though it is by far the world's thirstiest economy, are way better than South Africa. It has taken me a while to accept his view, and reading WORLD MADE BY HAND has helped. It is now abundantly clear that South Africa will probably provide the western world with an example of how a democracy caves in on itself when the economic strain reaches a critical point. I believe we are already at that point, the effect is still being absorbed through the strata of society, like steam under the lid of volcano.
- There have many many many signals that South Africa's miracle democracy is a sham. That may seem a very stern view. I think South Africa might have pulled it (democracy) off if we had had a longer period of economic growth. I'm saying we had a chance, maybe a 20-30% chance...but you know, even at our best, when we grew at 5%, unemployment remained at 40-50%, and it has worsened since. The other thing is the situation in Zimbabwe now makes it obvious that our leadership silently endorses land invasions, corruption, violent militarism and dictatorial power grabbing. It is obvious from the slurs ('We will kill for Zuma') that murderous plots (en masse) have been hatched behind closed doors.
- What has been unacceptable in South Africa is that both wealthy whites and blacks have tolerated the presence of their poor and suffering brothers and neighbours for a long period, and not bothered to engage with them (in a meaningful way). South Africa will continue to pay the heaviest price for this lack of engagement. It is what we deserve - how many South Africans unaffected by AIDS ever did anything about it? Over 5 million people in this country will die of this disease. That's the entire population of Cape Town. We operate - citizens and politicians - as though it is all in a day's work, no big deal. It ought to be number one on our agenda, every day, beating those stats down, taking these people by the hand and helping them.
It is difficult right now to overemphasise the tinderbox situation South Africa is in. We are not far from a violent revolution in many respects - in terms of crime, in terms of politics wrestling with justice, in terms of disease (and its impacts) wrecking the entire social fabric, and widespread economic destruction wiping out suburbia and cities.
- We will see, in the coming months, a crime wave, violence, mayhem and slaughter the likes of which we have never seen, sweep across this country. All that rainbow nation wishwash is going to regurgitate sickly in our mouths as bitter and hatefilled citizens (many who have recently lost their jobs) let go of their inner demons. South Africans will associate in groups based on race, and to some extent religion, and one group will attack another with impunity. This is not a uniquely South African thing. Tribalism will spread around the world, the the new God will be called BLAME. Oil companies, the government, the rich, will all be targeted, and of course no amount of fighting will make life any easier or any better, in fact it will exacerbate an already desperate situation.
- The government (ours and others) will unsuccessfully attempt to crush these uprisings, and the end result will be massive loss of life, and protracted austerity. I predict that South Africa will lead the world into the Long Emergency, but the good news is it may well emerge from this dismal period first. If some of our infrastructure remains intact (municipal services, SASOL), we may do okay at the end of it all.
- Oh and one more thing, no 2010 Fifa World Cup. That much should be obvious for a whole bunch of reasons, starting with an defunct airline industry, and including incredible scenes of mass violence and criminality (looting, burning, massacres etc).
My landlady confessed to me that a few months ago my utterances on oil left her with the impression I am a nutter. Tonight she said, "It turns out you're pretty perceptive." I hope, once again, that I am wrong in the assessment I've made here. But I said the same thing when I predicted the interminable rise in energy prices in 2005/6. It's not an unlikely assessment simply because fundamentally, what's obvious, is that we're facing chronic resource shortages, at a time when we're:
Too many men
Too many people
Making too many problems
And not much love to go round
Can't you see
This is a land of confusion.
So if you believe all this, what can we do about it?
Learn to lower your standard of living.
Make friends, improve relationships with family, visit a nearby church (whatever you believe), reach out and embrace your community - whether on facebook, next door, or from your phone. Be kind to the poor. Start to imagine life without your car. Invest in your health. Buy a bicycle. Read spiritually uplifting books, and start to wean yourself off junk food, movies and shopping. Try going vegetarian. Talk to people around you. Don't try to convince them you are right, simply say: "This is what I see, what do you see?" Be alert. Enjoy your life. And start building up the resolve to face the marathons to come.
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