"When we do kick those crutches out from under the housing market, will it be able to stand on its own?" said Mark Fleming, chief economist with real estate information company First American CoreLogic. "It's really hard to tell."
SHOOT: No, it's not. There won't be a recovery because everything to far has been smoke and mirrors, and hot air. Fundamentally nothing has changed, which is what happens when you bail out companies they ought to have gone bankrupt because they weren't working.
The recovery in the housing market is being driven by reduced prices, combined with federal programs to lower mortgage rates and bring more buyers into the market. The median sales price was $173,100. That's down 7 percent from a year earlier and off roughly 2 percent from September.
Many experts, though, predict prices will hit a new low next spring, perhaps falling another 5 to 10 percent, as more foreclosures get pushed onto the market. The government has tried to counter that trend by offering a tax incentive for first-time buyers and by keeping mortgage rates around 5 percent since the spring.
"The only reason we're seeing good numbers is because of government policies that are propping the market up," said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight. "Housing is still fundamentally weak."
The biggest contribution the housing industry makes to economic growth is from home building. |
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