Thursday, November 26, 2009

Attention Economists: Not so bad news is not the same as good news

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 hit new highs for the year again, based on initial jobless claims, which showed the number of people signing on last week dropped below the important 500,000 level. The better news on the labour market and new home sales trumped a worse-than-expected reading on US durable goods orders.

SHOOT: You still have unemployment numbers in the hundreds of thousands. These aren't the same people signing up month on month, but new people. In other words, the economy is growing not when fewer people sign up for unemployment, but when more people are becoming employed. There is a difference. Fromthe same article, the peak price of gold, and the dollar's 15 month low should indicate how fantasy based the S&P 500 actually is. A new high for the year? Based on what?

The S&P 500 closed up 0.5 per cent at 1,110.6. Its previous 2009 closing high, reached just over a week ago, was 1,110.3.
clipped from www.ft.com

21:40 GMT. Gold leapt to another high on Wednesday as the dollar tumbled below significant support levels to hit 15-month lows.

After trading within a tight range for nearly three weeks, the greenback suddenly lurched lower, breaching 74.50 on a trade-weighted basis and decisively cutting through the $1.51 mark versus the euro.

“It would be no surprise to see a panic acceleration lifting the euro by a further two or more cents while Americans feast on Thanksgiving Day turkey,” said Andrew Wilkinson senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers.

The dollar’s weakness provided further fuel to the gold price, pushing bullion to a new peak. By the time the closing bell chimed in New York, the spot gold price was up 1.8 per cent at $1,190.27. If these levels are maintained then the precious metal will be on track in November to enjoy its best monthly gains in a decade, an increase of more than 13 per cent, according to Reuters data.

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