Thursday, October 30, 2008

Financial Crisis - it's peaked, it's over, the worst is behind us (right?)

NVDL: I'll be writing on this topic later this week. But here's a hint. While 'experts' trumpet the dive in oil prices, today they are back up to $69 (and rising). There's no doubt that this is a reprieve. The next cycle will be worse than the one passing now. I will explain why in an upcoming piece.

“The inflation beast is seemingly exhausted. The worst part of inflation has passed,” said Standard Bank economist Danelee van Dyk. “Standard Bank expects interest rates to fall in April next year, followed by three consecutive cuts of 50 basis points each.”

“Inflation finally appears to have peaked and is expected to trend downwards. Although the weaker rand is a concern, it is unlikely to fundamentally alter the outlook,” said Nedbank economist Carmen Altenkirch.

Plummeting prices for oil — the other big inflation culprit — will also help. Prices for crude are off their lows, but at $65 a barrel are still less than half of record peaks at $145 in July.

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Think I am going to save these quotes - thought only politicians were bamboozlers.
Anyway, would be interesting to know on what evidence these statements are based.