The October Octopus

So it's the first day of October, and I forecast that this will be a grim month.

Oil should take centre stage, with the effects starting to gnaw and bite from Johannesburg to Jakarta. That's another way of saying, everywhere.

Johannesburg - South Africa's retail petrol price for all grades of petrol will increase by 12c a litre (c/l) from October 5 after a 29c/l rise on September 7, the department of minerals and energy (DME) announced on Friday.

The latest increases bring the retail price of a litre of 93 octane petrol in Gauteng to a record 603c/l. The coastal retail price increases to 590c/l from 578c/l.

JAKARTA, Indonesia - Riot police fired tear gas Friday at about 100 rock-throwing students who were among thousands demonstrating on the eve of drastic fuel price increases, which Indonesia's president defended as the only way to stave off an economic crisis.

Next, the elections in Iraq are scheduled for October 15. This month is likely to be bloody.

Already, in Bali, two blasts have occurred close to the bombings of 2002. This may be part of "The Great Ramadan Offensive." A September report warned that Bin Laden and his top lieutenant Ayman al-Zawahiri may be planning a series of attacks in October.

Finally, as autumn gives way to winter, Americans will feel the pinch of spectacularly high natural gas prices. Some in the northwest will find that they aren't able to afford to keep their homes warm.

At the same time In Asia bird flocks will continue to move where they will, but this time there'll be changing temperatures driving these movements as well. We may begin to see a manfestation of the pandemic panic, in places like Jakarta, spreading as far afield as Johannesburg. If it is simply a matter of one case of bird flu operating in a person who simultaneously has another flu (though more transmissable) I would expect H5N1 to begin to spread from person to person this winter. We'd be very lucky if it didn't.

And then we still have 60 more days of Hurricane season. If the trend is anything to go by, there should be plenty of time for one more monster. Let's hope not.

Whether or not there is another major Hurricane, flights are already being cancelled, and flying is becoming more and more expensive. Expect a flurry of bankrupcies to be declared in the coming weeks, from Johannesburg to Jakarta.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American Airlines plans to cancel 15 daily round-trip domestic flights from its two largest hub airports because of the skyrocketing price of jet fuel, the No. 1 U.S. air carrier said on Friday.

Surging fuel prices helped push Delta and Northwest Airlines Corp. into bankruptcy earlier this month, briefly leaving American and Continental as the only solvent U.S. "legacy" carriers.

Many pipelines that carry jet fuel and other petroleum products from the U.S. Gulf to other regions are closed or running below full capacity because of power outages or other storm-related problems.

This means that tanker trucks will have to be used to carry the product into airports, adding to the cost.

"If airlines aren't feeling the pinch now, they will be," said one Gulf Coast jet trader, who said airlines will take on fuel wherever they can get it.

In October we'll see the giant octopus, with not one tentacle but eight, slithering through the door. We'll want to pinch ourselves to wake up, but the octopus will still be there.