It still surprises me how reluctant people are to think or talk about this. But then people are very comfortable. We are. We like to employ almost no effort to get the things we want - everything is push button convenience. The idea of this lifestyle being threatened frightens us.
I've recently finished an article I've called Donkey Carts, Bicycles and Scooters, which is an attempt to paint the Oil Dilemma in a few broad strokes to a South African audience, for Heartland magazine. I really believe this message needs to be heard, so I am thrilled it's going into mainstream media. Well, Heartland isn't mainstream, but it's certainly more mainstream than this blog.
I'm even considering writing a book on this subject, and maybe doing a fialry informal tour, of school's and campuses to promote readiness and develop strategies and alternatives among our countries developing youth.
Here's why it's important to try to do something:
Trouble in the World's Largest Oil Field-Ghawar
by Glenn Morton
Copyright 2004 G.R. Morton. This can be freely distributed so long as no changes are made and no charges are made.
There are four oil fields in the world which produce over one million barrels per day. Ghawar, which produces 4.5 million barrels per day, Cantarell in Mexico, which produces nearly 2 million barrels per day, Burgan in Kuwait which produces 1 million barrels per day and Da Qing in China which produces 1 million barrels per day. Ghawar is, therefore, extremely important to the world's economy and well being. Today the world produces 82.5 million barrels per day which means that Ghawar produces 5.5 percent of the world's daily production. Should it decline, there would be major problems. As Ghawar goes, so goes Saudi Arabia.
The field was brought on line in 1951. By 1981 it was producing 5.7 million barrels per day. Its production was restricted during the 1980s but by 1996 with the addition of two other areas in the southern area of Ghawar brought on production, Hawiyah and Haradh, the production went back up above 5 million per day. In 2001 it was producing around 4.5 million barrels per day. There have been 3400 wells drilled into this reservoir
I have noted elsewhere that the data I am being told by engineers who have actually worked on Ghawar, that this decade will see it's peak. (Morton, 2004 PSCF in press). Others have noted how the percentage of water brought up with the oil has been growing on Ghawar. There are published reports that Ghawar has from 30-55% water cut. This means that about half the fluids brought up the well are water. Today the decline rate is 8%. Thousands of barrels per day of production must be added each year.
"The big risk in Saudi Arabia is that Ghawar's rate of decline increases to an alarming point," said Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior official with the National Iranian Oil Company. "That will set bells ringing all over the oil world because Ghawar underpins Saudi output and Saudi undergirds worldwide production." JEFF GERTH, "Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields," February 24, 2004 New York Times, Late Edition - Final , Section A , Page 1 , Column 3 www.peakoil.net/Newspapers/20040224NYTTiredSaudiFields.doc
Unfortunately for the world, few know the actual state of Ghawar. Cumulative production from the field is 55 billion barrels. In 1975 Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco estimated that the ultimate recovery from the field would be 60 billion barrels. Without a doubt, new technologies have moved EURs from that which was possible in the mid 1970s. But the Saudis claim that the field can recover another 125 billion barrels.(this info come from www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/IEA-SOM.pdf slide 25 accessed 7-5-04) For someone like me who has spent a lifetime in the oil industry trebling the recovery factor is a fantasy we all wish we could do. But no one has ever figured out how. Thus, I doubt very much their claims, especially in light of the maps shown below.
But this is what is happening
"Saudi oilmen are usually a taciturn bunch, guarding their data like state secrets. But this was post September 11 and Riyadh was wooing western journalists and trying to restore the Saudis' image as dependable, long-term suppliers of energy--not suicidal fanatics nor terrorist financiers. And it was working.
"Then the illusion slipped. On a whim I asked my hosts about another, older oilfield called Ghawar. It is the largest field ever discovered, its deep sandstone reservoir at one time had held perhaps one-seventh of the world's known oil reserves, and its well produced roughly one of every 12 barrels of crude consumed on earth. In the iconography of oi, Ghawar is the mythical giant that makes most other fields look puny and mortal. . . .
"At Ghawar,' he said, 'they have to inject water into the field to force the oil out,' by contrast, he continued, Shayba's oil contained only trace amounts of water. At Ghawar, the engineer said, the 'water cut' was 30%."
"The hairs on the back of my neck stood up. Ghawar's water injections were hardly news, but a 30% water cut, if true, was startling. Most new oilfields produce almost pure oil or oil mixed with natural gas--with little water. Over time, however, as the oil is drawn out, operators must replace it with water to keep te oil flowing --until eventually what flows is almost pure water and the field is no longer worth operating."
"Ghawar will not run dry overnight, but the beginning of the end of its oil is in sight." Paul Roberts, "New Tyrants for Old as the Oil Starts to Run Out, " Sunday Times (News Review), May 16, 2004, p. 8
If I pick up a sign and walk the streets with The End Is Nigh, do you think people will laugh at me? Will you?
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