Although a few people with no other health problems have died of H1N1 flu, the death toll consists mainly of patients with underlying disease or factors that weaken their immune system, including obesity and pregnancy.
But it is clear that however unpredictable flu may be – and whatever the severity of this pandemic – the number of victims over the next few months will be proportionally far higher among the world’s poor than the rich.
SHOOT: The poor, those stressed and under strain aremost at risk. That number is increasing.
From the moment last spring when swine flu swept out of Mexico and triggered the world’s first pandemic for 40 years, medical experts have emphasised the unpredictability of the influenza virus. Their refrain has been: “Expect the unexpected.”
So far, however, the new strain of H1N1 has more or less followed the script that epidemiologists wrote for it three months ago. The virus has stuck to the normal seasonal pattern of flu, so current outbreaks are more intense in the southern hemisphere where it is winter.
While flu may have a capacity to surprise, they would be astounded if there were no seasonal surge in cases in the northern hemisphere this autumn, after everyone is back at school or work and the weather has cooled.
Whether the virus will become more virulent is less certain. There is a widespread belief that severe pandemics are preceded by a milder “herald” wave of disease. If so, the outlook is bleak.
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