Jeremy Wakeford: David Rutledge, a Professor at the California Institute of Technology, has used the ‘Hubbert linearization’ method to estimate that there could be as little as 10 billion tonnes (Gt) of recoverable coal reserves remaining in Africa (most of which is in South Africa). If true, current production could be sustained for only about 40 years.
South Africa’s energy economy is overwhelmingly dependent on coal. The fossil fuel provides nearly three quarters of total primary energy, supports almost 90 per cent of electricity generation, and provides feedstock for close to a third of the country’s liquid fuels via Sasol’s coal-to-liquids process. Coal is also used directly as a fuel by certain industries (e.g. steel production), and indirectly as feedstock for Sasol’s petrochemical products. In addition, roughly a third of the nation’s annual coal output is exported, generating an important source of foreign exchange earnings.
There are two major risks inherent in this heavy dependence on coal: one is the finite nature of its supply, and the other is its contribution to global warming. |
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