NVDL: This is a fascinating read. It shows us how our lives - the poor and middle class - have basically been put in the service of making the few, the rich, even richer. This was done by providing us with cheap debt (credit cards, mortgages, etc.) and effectively - via a Debt Bubble - allowing us to borrow against our own futures, thus impoverishing us, and securing and perpetuating the futures of rich financiers.
Jerome a Paris: In a nutshell, the debt bubble hid the class warfare waged by the rich against everybody else, conveniently trapping those that could not or would not live within their means in the system, by making their livelihood increasingly dependent on not rocking the boat.
But the debt bubble was (duh) a debt bubble, and it is now bursting, as it inevitably would. What matters is how the pain is shared, and, right now, it does not look as it will be shared the same way the loot was on the way up. The whole cycle was just a way to permanently transfer wealth from the many to the few. It was wilfully created by the combination of ultra low interest rates as set by the Fed (thus my moniker of "Bubbles" Greenspan), tax cuts for the rich (Bush's helpful but hardly invisible hand) and the permanent propaganda for liberalisation, deregulation, "reform" and "freedom."
In today's economy, the cannibalistic sector is not oil&gas, but finance. Bankers, through debt, have the ability to convert future cash-flows into immediate profits. Such immediate returns attract more capital, talent and resources (which cannot go to other sectors) and impose an iron discipline on the rest of the economy: those that provide the debt want to ensure that the future cash-flows will indeed materialize, and move in to ensure a relentless focus, in the underlying activities, on profitability at the expense of all other criteria. The immediate contribution of the financial world to measured GDP and growth makes it a popular industry, thus reinforcing its influence - and spreading out its way of thinking, focused on monetary gains and financial "efficiency." So not only the rest of the economy gets squeezed for any extra drop of profitability, but the language of financial analysts becomes the dominant one of not only economic discourse but also political discourse;
One of the more attractive features of the financial world, for its promoters, is its ability to concentrate huge fortunes in a small number of hands, and promote this as a good thing (these people are said to be creating wealth, rather than capturing it). Making money, lots of it, is the ultimate arbiter of not just success, but also morality;
Of course, the reality is that such wealth concentration is created by squeezing the rest, as is obvious in the stagnation of incomes for most in the middle and lower rungs of society. This is not so much wealth creation as wealth redistribution, from the many to the few. But what has made this unequality (the fundamental feature of the Anglo Disease) tolerable is that the financial world itself was able to provide a convenient smokescreen, in the form of cheap debt, provided in abundance to all. The wealthy used it to grab real assets in funny money, and the rest were kindly allowed to keep on spending by tapping their future income rather than their insufficient current one;
Paradoxically, the oil price increases provided an additional boost to the debt bubble: while they started biting into consumer spending, they also generated a new round of cheap liquidity, as oil producing countries suddenly found themselves with huge amounts of money, in dollars, which they could not, or chose not to, spend right away - presto, these were invested into Treasurys, ie loaned to the US. This provided the liquidity to finance consumer spending in the US (including for gas) and kept the interest rates on long term debt very low (demand for bonds pushes the price for bonds up, and thus brings the yield, is the interest rate, down). This happened at a time when the Fed had finally decided to increase its short term rates as it could no longer justify the extravagantly low rates of 2001-2004 and created what Greenspan called his "conundrum" - that apparent disconnect between short term and long term interest rates. It was just the bubble going on afterburner, thanks to oil prices.
Effectively, the liquidity created by high oil prices hid for two years the fact that the bubble was bursting.
But now, everything is aligned - in the wrong direction:
* the debt bubble is bursting, as long announced by observers not blinded by greed or ideology, with all the expected pain: the real estate crash, the banking crisis, the foreclosures, and the coming inevitable recession;
* the income capture mechanisms set up during the bubble have not been reversed, so the pain is falling disproportionately on the poorest, and the finance world (ie the rich) is being bailed out. The rescue of Bear Stearns may have inflicted pain on shareholders, but it saved bondholders, which is unprecedented and ominous. Public discourse is still largely about "reform", tax cuts and "letting the market" solve things;
More here.
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Saturday, June 07, 2008
KOREA/IT: Wired for wealth [FINANCIAL MAIL]
By Nick van der Leek
South Korea is one-tenth the size of SA, far removed from the largest markets and, until a couple of decades ago, was ensconced in an agricultural economy.
Yet the country is part of the trillion-dollar club and one of the world's 15 largest economies. It is projected to be the second-wealthiest economy per capita by 2050.
Korea - All connected
How is all this possible for a small peninsula that has as many citizens as SA?
The key factor underpinning South Korea's meteoric rise is that the country has over the past decade emerged as the most wired nation in the world, and is now the global leader in broadband Internet penetration.
The Internet story starts with telephone penetration, which at a teledensity of 48,8 is three times the world average.
Almost 80% of households have mobile phones, (compared with SA's estimated 50% mobile phone penetration, and exceeding the US's estimated 75%).
As recently as 13 years ago, Korea's Internet penetration levels were less than one per 100 inhabitants. In 2001 Korea emerged as the world's fifth-largest Internet market with 26m users, and today it is the world leader in broadband Internet access. Less than 10% of Americans have high-bandwidth connections, compared with more than 50% of Korean households.
Korea is piloting and deploying connections at 1 000 Mbit/s (the UK average is 4,6 Mbit/s). Koreans have the highest speeds and pay the least for broadband connections, capable of downloading movies in minutes.
How to explain Korea's exceptional Internet penetration, when these seemingly don't correlate with the country's income levels? In fact, it works the other way round: the high levels of IT access have stimulated Korea's income capacity.
Local experts list a number of reasons:
* Koreans have their own language, so there is very little "recycling" and "lifting" of content from outside sources.
* Koreans love to read newspapers, despite the increase in online news sites.
[This has been edited and doesn't quite reflect my meaning. The point is Koreans are voracious readers. Thus books, newspapersand online all do well. Part of the reason for this is a very strong focus on both education and work ethic.]
* Koreans are hard working students. Tertiary-level enrolment is almost 70%.
* Population density helps: 70% of Koreans live in the seven largest cities.
Korea's connectivity has had a huge impact on the economy, which until a decade ago rested on its chaebols, a few large family-controlled conglomerates.
Research firm Connected Nation estimates a 7% broadband adoption, such as Korea achieves in a year, would mean a US$134bn boost to the US economy.
In Korea it has allowed the corporate sector to expand globally at a faster pace than would otherwise have happened.
South Korea's largest conglomerate, Samsung, with 2006 revenues of almost $159bn, is the global market leader in more than 60 products. Samsung and other Korean groups are leaders in building electronic devices ranging from semiconductors to blu-ray players and from home cinema systems to mobile phones. And there is a whole range of traditional white goods, such as microwaves and washing machines, in which these companies first made their names and which still contribute a large portion of profits.
They are forced to adopt new technologies because their domestic market changes so rapidly and consumers adopt new technologies so quickly. Koreans replace their cellphone handsets more often than US consumers do.
Korean companies invest billions of dollars in research and development. Their home market becomes their testing ground before they expand these products to the world market.
Korea is a country of early adopters because its citizens have such a high degree of access to Internet technologies. Its companies are always the first to develop a slew of homegrown gadgets to sell to domestic consumers - via the Internet, of course.
E-commerce in Korea is already 20% of the economy, worth about $200bn.
Korea's "hit" products are identified, deployed and modified for world markets. By the time they reach the globe they have been tried and tested, and have gathered huge consumer momentum.
Korea's success holds numerous lessons for SA.
Firstly, Korea relies heavily on local content. All the top 10 websites accessed by Korean users are Korean. Local content differentiates and links local communities. Home-based portals like Korea's Daum portal, for example (a local version of Google or Yahoo), attracts 450m page impressions [per month] and is a world leader in pages per user and session time.
Daum is able to earn money because it holds a captive market that is Korean, and does not risk "diluting" its content from outside sources.
The Korean websites also keep it local by offering a wide range of services - everything from dating to chatting and gaming - which prevents users from using overseas sites like Google.
In SA, more home-grown Web portals like 24.com will attract a greater number of users to the Internet.
Secondly, a vast investment in SA's urban IT infrastructure is required. Korea's Internet resembles one gigantic Intranet (or local area network), where most users access only local sites.
It is also crucial that SA develops an Internet culture similar to Korea's, which has more than 26 000 Internet cafés and a lively gaming industry (65% of visitors to Internet cafés are gamers).
Almost half - 43% - of South Korea's population have blogs, and almost every Korean twentysomething uses a social network on a daily basis. It's an Internet culture that is inculcated at school, at home and at business level.
And it isn't limited to business and education. Housewives generate 45% of domestic traffic doing shopping, buying and selling shares, taking classes and just surfing. Online banking, and the adoption of other forms of technology, are well ahead of those in SA.
Also read: SA'S RESPONSE TO SOARING GLOBAL OIL PRICES
Oil prices break record; surge to $139 a barrel
"If Iran continues its nuclear weapons program, we will attack it"
Shaul Mofaz
Israeli transport minister
Israeli transport minister
NEW YORK: Oil prices have shot up more than $11 to a new record above $139 after Morgan Stanley predicted prices would hit $150 by July 4.
Oil's meteoric surge, which pushed prices more than 8 per cent higher in a single day, added to a huge increase on Thursday to cap oil's biggest two-day gain in the history of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The burst higher - which also came on rising Middle East tensions - also raised the prospect of accelerating inflation by adding to already strained transportation costs.
That gloomy outlook sent stocks tumbling, taking the Dow Jones industrials nearly 400 points.
More.
Japanese Trade Minister Akira Amari said on Saturday that current "abnormal" oil prices above $130 a barrel posed a big risk to the global economy and to energy security.
Analyst sees $150 oil within a month
NVDL: I am not sure whether these prices are abnormal. Our living arrangements are, and we are going to experience massive change now. All bets are off - except that oil prices will continue to climb. Now the naysayers [Why oil prices will tank] face obsolesence.
Reflexivity and Revolution, and why Soros isn't on the ball
NVDL: Ja, I'm going to make a bold statement. One of the wealthiest men in the world, and one of the savviest investors has got it wrong with his assessment of the oil bubble. He has also got a bit too close to the financial figures, and is himself a victim of wish fulfillment. Reality and what we want to happen (and hope) aren't the same thing. In fact we are about to pay a heavy price for our misplaced perception that oil - which underpins everything, and to a large extent our daily economic stasis, is now under threat. As such, it is almost impossible to place a dollar value on the stuff. Which means the price of oil is theoretically limitless once one begins to appreciate its real value. In short - Mr Soros, the oil price is not a bubble. It will not pop after $150, or $200 or $250.
A recession in US may allow for some sustained stability, but not for long. Oil will break our financial system, and it will break world civilisation as we know it. And we're right there, right now. Most people have not been willing to face this 'negative and pessimistic' news. Well, if you have cancer you can also choose not to face it. But the cancer still remains. And then we have to wonder how smart the psychology of ignorance in favor of positivity really is.
The example I often give is this. No one places any value on air or water. And when it's abundant it is vital, but worthless. But when it is no longer abundant, it's value increases rapidly. Since oil also underpins our ability to survive (to eat, to move, to warm our homes), it has inestimable value. Furthermore, our large scale addiction to the stuff as an integral part of daily activity means we now face fundamental and revolutionary change on a planet wide scale. Yes, now.
I found this quote: "The situations that men define as true, become true for them." Sociologist William Thomas, 1928 and a fascinating in-depth look at this topic here.
Soros: "So we can observe three very different conditions in history: the “normal,” in which the participants’ views and the actual state of affairs tend to converge; and two far-from- equilibrium conditions, one of apparent changelessness, in which thinking and reality are very far apart and show no tendency to converge, and one of revolutionary change in which the actual situation is so novel and unexpected and changing so rapidly that the participants’ views cannot keep up with it."I can pontificate about my thoughts when I studied economics at university (that people's affinity and knowledge of brands and other associated information would also be an artificial impact on the prices of things beyond their real value.) Essentially I felt that the insider trading laws were absurd, because reflexivity [what I call trading on sentiment, perceptions of conventional financial wisdom] is happening in various shades of gray anyway. Seems like I was onto Soros thinking without knowing it. Difference is, he made money out of it, I didn't.
Nate Hagens:
In financial markets (which include oil futures), reflexivity occurs when prices themselves influence the fundamentals and that this newly-influenced set of fundamentals then changes expectations, thus influencing prices. This process then continues in a self-reinforcing pattern until it has overshot equilibrium. Because the pattern is self-perpetuating, markets tend towards disequilibrium- where every outcome is uniquely different from the past. (This of course flies in the face of most everything I was taught at the University of Chicago Business School)
People like James Kunstler have also spoken for years now about how delusional the markets are, expressed in the stock exchange index figures, where speculators have increasingly put themselves in a win/win situation. That's not how markets work. You can't profit realistically from a change in two opposing industries and still have the aggregate market increase. Not sure if that makes sense. I mean if oil prices go up, property markets ought to drop... stock markets ought to drop, because it makes it more difficult (costly) for markets to operate. But what happens is speculators buy oil and the whole market lifts, then when oil drops, they buy something else, perhaps financials, and the whole market lifts. It doesn't make sense. Oil up = market down, oil down = market up. That's a rational psychology, and it is not nearly reflected in the daily machinations of the market.
Here's an awesome analysis by Nate Hagens from Theoildrum.com:
Imagine that there were no Ken Deffeyes, Matt Simmons or Colin Campbell. Imagine that M. King Hubbert spent his retirement playing Parchesi with his wife and not modeling future oil depletion. Imagine that when the UK hit is second (and final) peak in 1999 that no one noticed, and that market participants didn't pay attention to the subsequent 12 fold increase in oil prices. Imagine we didn't know that the energy return on crude oil had declined from over 100:1, to 30:1 to around 10:1. Imagine that Nigerian rebels and Iraqi freedom fighters couldn't cause daily spikes in crude prices by their actions due to the fragility of supply and demand. Imagine that bandits weren't stealing scarce diesel fuel at night in California. And, imagine if places like theoildrum, or ASPO or energybulletin [or NVDL] didn't continually posit data and questions that pushed the envelope of conventional energy wisdom. Consider then only geology. That we use horizontal drilling and nitrogen and water injection, that we are drilling more and more wells all around the world using the latest seismic technology, etc. That the EIA continues to model supply forecasts with demand forecasts, because supply has never really been a constraint in the past....Would oil prices be approaching $130? Would T Boone Pickens be interviewed with a mixture of awe and fear on CNBC? Would there be major military presence in what was formerly the fertile crescent? Probably not. Yesterdays 'facts' are influencing today's perceptions which are influencing tomorrows realities.
$100+ oil DOES change consumption habits, but it also changes humans built in beliefs towards their futures, both individually and as nations. Earlier this week the CEO of TOTAL, one of the worlds largest oil companies, stated that new forms of energy would not be able to compensate for the coming oil and gas depletion. He also stated that new oil reserves cost $80 to procure so $80 would become the new price floor for oil going forward. We don't know that this is a fact - but is the opinion of an expert in a position to know more than the average participant. Monsieur de Margerie, via his perceived authority and public pronouncements is therby affecting the fundamentals of the oil industry. Each incremental admission, whether from the IEA, from TOTAL, or from theoildrum.com, shifts the mindsets of participants at the margin, which subsequently changes behaviours.
In 1999 with oil below $10 per barrel, the stock market at all time highs, and resource limit concerns restricted to a handful of cranky environmentalists and Hubbert acolytes, were we at 'equilibrium'? In 2001 with oil at $20? In 2005 with oil at $50? The point is that for a very long time we were not in equilibrium - the pendulum was pulled way to the left and finally let fly in 2000 - the question is, has it now past equilibrium in the other direction? Or have we moved into the third stage, where human collective awareness is accelerating knowledge about and action in the oil sector? More knowledge about finite flow limits changes professionals opinions about the future, which changes investment into refineries, changes long term contracts with exporting nations, changes military strategies, changes hoarding strategies, all of which are reflected in the price moonshot. Soros theory, which I happen to subscribe to, implies we will overshoot in both directions, because gravity and momementum will combine to send the pendulum backwards once market participants have not only caught up, but exceeded the reality of the situation. But Soros (to my knowledge) generally applied this principle to finance, and admitted to Congress he is not an expert in things energy. [Amen brother]. Reflexivity could of course have larger societal implications beyond investment booms and busts.
Nearly two years ago, in this post about the Amaranth blow up, I suggested that price floors and position limits would eventually become a reality because of the sheer size of dollars vs notional energy values. In A Closer Look at Futures, I commented:
I believe there are 3 different definitions of Peak Oil and they will come in succession.
- The point when we have used half of the oil that will ever be extracted.
- The point when we reach maximum sustained production (given that we use high technology like horizontal drilling and water and nitrogen injection, we are likely borrowing from the second half of what was normally a bell shaped curve so this point will come later).
- The point when the meme of finite energy resources takes hold in society.
Here is my 'participant' part of the equation of Peak Oil. These are not facts, but my opinions:
1)There will be extreme volatility in next 5 years in oil and gas prices. Not only day to day, but year to year. Awareness of possible flow constraints is now upon us, rightly or wrongly. This combined with the tiny size of energy commodity markets compared to investable dollars will engender large position sizes that inevitably will fall victim to the fear/greed/leverage trifecta. Attention to the oil sector guarantees increased volatility. Accelerating oil depletion of older wells and skyrocketing reserve replacement costs guarantees higher highs and higher lows...
2)The Peak Oil community (e.g. those who generally understand that oil production is either peaking now or will peak soon) will begin to bifurcate into two relatively disparate camps - a)the supply-side camp that understands the urgency but will try and address energy and resource shortage via technology, more drilling and alternatives and b)the demand-side camp [That's NVDL] who will see that no matter what the energy source, a new paradigm of how we live our lives will be the only satisfactory answer to the twin problems of peak fossil fuels and a growing population. Conversations between these two camps will become increasingly disparate and tense. [Personally I believe we need to focus and emphasise the demand side, but obviously a fraction of attention needs to be applied to technologies that might alleviate our situation. Of course, currently, the focus is on supply side to an order of 90% if not more, with far too little focus on our rapacious and pernicious habits.]
3)There will be an eventual slowing and ultimately a cessation of speculation in energy markets by non-producers. This is tantamount to a change in capitalism so I don't say it lightly, but already only 6% of world oil reserves are owned by public companies - the amount of dollars NOW dwarfs the amount of notional physical resources - if printing presses are turned on while resources deplete this disparity will continue to grow. At some point people like you and I won't be allowed to buy oil futures, which is only a short step away from nationalization of the energy industry (which is the case in most countries already).
Conversations and thoughts like these are meant to raise the bar of discourse on energy topics so when real policy discussions take place, either locally or regionally, people will speak a common language. There is a fine line in peak oil outreach - more awareness is needed to accelerate renewable infrastructure and kick-start efficiency and conservation measures - yet too much awareness might cause supply disruptions (hoarding) and make it difficult for oil companies to extend the time horizon that we have access to a large baseline of production, etc.
As an editor on this site, I hope we are efforting positive change, but realize many of our readers are likely tuning in to know the latest details in order to improve their own situation, financial or otherwise. One of my concerns is when the pendulum swings back the other direction, and we head towards one of those 'higher lows', that the urgency of both supply and demand response will be lost. These are high stakes.
[I think the pendulum has a lot of sway left...beyond $200 right now may cause it to swing back to $150 or so. I believe oil prices are still cheap. They don't reflect our dependence.]
Oil Prices Send Stocks Down Sharply
The price of oil surged more than $6 a barrel Friday morning, the biggest gain in more than three months, sending the stock market into a nose-dive and reversing Thursday’s gains.
By ABHA BHATTARAI
Investors are worried that the rising price of oil, coupled with bleak unemployment data that was released Friday morning, will continue to hurt businesses and suppress consumer spending in an already-weak economy.
In addition, a report by Morgan Stanley on Friday said that oil prices could reach $150 a barrel by July 4 because of higher demand in Asia.
The Dow Jones industrials were down 234 points, or 1.85 percent in mid-morning trading, with financial stocks taking the biggest hit. The Dow was also dragged down by shares of American International Group, which stumbled after accusations that the company may have overstated the value of contracts tied to subprime mortgages. Shares of A.I.G. fell $2.43, or more than 6 percent, to $43.98.
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 22.79 points, or 1.6 percent, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 37.76 points, or 1.5 percent.
Oil was up more than $6.10 a barrel, or about 5 percent, to $133.89 within the first hour and half of trading, hitting a new record high. The spike came despite no specific disruption in the oil market, suggesting that the move was based on speculation.
NVDL: Banks are taking a big hit. I hope, if you're reading this, you don't have money in bank stocks.
By ABHA BHATTARAI
Investors are worried that the rising price of oil, coupled with bleak unemployment data that was released Friday morning, will continue to hurt businesses and suppress consumer spending in an already-weak economy.
In addition, a report by Morgan Stanley on Friday said that oil prices could reach $150 a barrel by July 4 because of higher demand in Asia.
The Dow Jones industrials were down 234 points, or 1.85 percent in mid-morning trading, with financial stocks taking the biggest hit. The Dow was also dragged down by shares of American International Group, which stumbled after accusations that the company may have overstated the value of contracts tied to subprime mortgages. Shares of A.I.G. fell $2.43, or more than 6 percent, to $43.98.
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 22.79 points, or 1.6 percent, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 37.76 points, or 1.5 percent.
Oil was up more than $6.10 a barrel, or about 5 percent, to $133.89 within the first hour and half of trading, hitting a new record high. The spike came despite no specific disruption in the oil market, suggesting that the move was based on speculation.
NVDL: Banks are taking a big hit. I hope, if you're reading this, you don't have money in bank stocks.
OMG: Oil now $134.68 dollars per barrel - up $12 in 24 hours
LONDON (AFP) — Oil prices were catapulted close to record levels near 135 dollars per barrel as traders reacted to fresh weakness in the US currency after negative data on the American economy.
New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for July delivery, surged as high as 134.68 dollars per barrel, close to its historic peak of 135.09 hit on May 22.
The contract later stood at 134.40 dollars, up 6.61 dollars from the close on Thursday.
Brent North Sea crude for July gained 5.55 dollars to 133.09 dollars a barrel, which was some way off the record 135.14 struck on May 22.
The US economy shed 49,000 (0.5%) jobs in May, almost twice the number the prior month, to mark the fifth monthly drop in a row.
More.
Global demand sees oil on fire
Friday, June 06, 2008
Oil above $128 after record surge on weak dollar
Some analysts say subsidy cuts in Asia will not be enough to slow oil use.
"World oil demand growth is still accounted mostly by China, the Middle East and Latin America -- and through the summer, there is no reason to expect a material slowdown in demand growth in these areas," said Harry Tchilinguirian, oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London.
Ahead of a weekend meeting of G8 energy ministers plus their peers from China, India and South Korea, to try and agree on the role of consumer nations in stemming oil's five-year price rally, the IEA warned that oil demand would rise by 70 percent if governments continued with current policies.
It also urged world governments to start a $45 trillion dollar "energy technology revolution" or risk a 130 percent surge in carbon emissions by 2050. [ID:nSP116202] (Reporting by Santosh Menon in LOndon and Maryelle Demongeot in Singapore; editing by James Jukwey)
More.
"World oil demand growth is still accounted mostly by China, the Middle East and Latin America -- and through the summer, there is no reason to expect a material slowdown in demand growth in these areas," said Harry Tchilinguirian, oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London.
Ahead of a weekend meeting of G8 energy ministers plus their peers from China, India and South Korea, to try and agree on the role of consumer nations in stemming oil's five-year price rally, the IEA warned that oil demand would rise by 70 percent if governments continued with current policies.
It also urged world governments to start a $45 trillion dollar "energy technology revolution" or risk a 130 percent surge in carbon emissions by 2050. [ID:nSP116202] (Reporting by Santosh Menon in LOndon and Maryelle Demongeot in Singapore; editing by James Jukwey)
More.
Tornadoes Raking Great Plains
Tornadoes dropped onto the Great Plains on Thursday after forecasters warned of a potentially historic outbreak.
Computer forecasting models for Thursday resembled those on June 8, 1974, when 39 tornadoes raked the southern Plains and killed 22 people. The National Weather Service on Tuesday took the unusual step of giving advance warning of a possible tornado outbreak based on the conditions.
It's Tour De France Time...well, almost
This morning was very cold. My HRM shows a minimum of 1, and an average of 3 degrees Celcius. It took my toes a long time to thaw after I got back. But it's been a good week. I've trained every day except Wednesday. Monday a gym cycle session, Tuesday the Sylvia's Pass route, Thursday gym + cycle, and today around Emmerentia. Question is, do i take it to the max and ride tomorrow too?
David Millar gets in gear for Tour de France bid
David Millar gets in gear for Tour de France bid
Oil rises $5 overnight, Rand weakens
Brent Crude is trading at over $128 now, and the Rand is now 7.80 to the $. At these prices we can anticipate 3 or 4 more months of successive fuel price hikes,with petrol prices breaching R12 a litre by the end of this year.
Every time we have a downward shift, the market forgets what pushed the market up,and when it's up, the market calls it a bubble, blames speculators, or the $ - in short the market looks everywhere except at real fundamental forces.
FT.com:
India, which imports 70 percent of its oil needs to feed its fast-growing economy, on Wednesday raised petrol prices by 11 percent and diesel by 9.4 percent based on pump prices in New Delhi.
Malaysia raised petrol prices 41 percent in a bid to curb its massive subsidies bill, following a similar move in Indonesia where fuel prices jumped by almost 30 percent.
High fuel prices have also hit global airlines. US carrier Continental Airlines said Thursday it will cut 3,000 jobs and pull 67 ageing planes in a massive retrenchment because of rising fuel prices. Two other big US carriers, American and United Airlines, have made similar moves.
More: Improving Mileage: "Hypermiling"
Me the Media
Today I have this story appearing on the main page of Ohmynews, a photograph of electricity pylons under a rainbow, published in The Times, my WIRED FOR WEALTH article appears today in the Financial Mail, and I have a photograph in the current issue of True Love magazine (Women in Action series).
I also have stories awaiting approval at GQ magazine, and Sunday Times Lifestyle and Sunday Times magazine. I have sweated blood on the last couple of stories. One is titled WHY THE WORLD NEEDS BATMAN. I have a few other stories in the works, but need some down time, just a day or two, to allow the saw to sharpen again. Another piece I'm quite excited about is called BIG BLOGGER IS WATCHING YOU, and has some very interesting information on how the internet is changing us - how we work, how we think, how we operate, how we consume and use media, how we give away our privacy and are unaware of boundary violations.
Despite these modest successes, my foot is starting to hurt from the number of shots fired at it.
I also have stories awaiting approval at GQ magazine, and Sunday Times Lifestyle and Sunday Times magazine. I have sweated blood on the last couple of stories. One is titled WHY THE WORLD NEEDS BATMAN. I have a few other stories in the works, but need some down time, just a day or two, to allow the saw to sharpen again. Another piece I'm quite excited about is called BIG BLOGGER IS WATCHING YOU, and has some very interesting information on how the internet is changing us - how we work, how we think, how we operate, how we consume and use media, how we give away our privacy and are unaware of boundary violations.
Despite these modest successes, my foot is starting to hurt from the number of shots fired at it.
3 News Habits - join me
So things are a-changing. Are we a-changing? I've identified 3 habits I'd like to address right now.
1) Cell phones. I've read a number of articles that posit a worrying possibility of brain tumors associated with putting a cellphone against your ear. There appears to be a correlation between these tumors and the side of the head used to answer the phone. Everyone knows that cellphone companies make massive amounts of money. And the tech is still so new, new stuff is rolling out all the time. How long have they tested the technology? Basically, we are the test. And my logic tells me, if a computer screen can frazzle up when an sms goes thru, just think how those microwaves are cooking your brain? You don't have to think, you can feel the heat.
What to do? Use the phone less, and when you do use it, use ear phones that connect to the phone.
2) Coke and bottled water. I am one of the biggest culprits here. Coke is just such a bad idea if you want to lose weight or maintain a stable mindset (or mood). Bottled water isn't very healthy, and you actually pay for the nergy it takes to make the bottle, and transport the water to you. In its place, drink squeezed orange juice, and if you consume water, buy an aluminum flask and use filtration/purification systems if you don't trust the water in your area. Water - clean and fresh - is likely to become a bigger and bigger problem.
3) Finally, exercise. My ideal body weight - I measured it, is 66.8kg. I weight about 15kg more than that. That's a lot of fat to be lugging around. And the world could seriously do with people that are less fat, less vulgar in their consumption. So I'm going to literally tighten my belt. Exercise more, eat less, be less of an ogre to the planet.
I hope you will join me.
1) Cell phones. I've read a number of articles that posit a worrying possibility of brain tumors associated with putting a cellphone against your ear. There appears to be a correlation between these tumors and the side of the head used to answer the phone. Everyone knows that cellphone companies make massive amounts of money. And the tech is still so new, new stuff is rolling out all the time. How long have they tested the technology? Basically, we are the test. And my logic tells me, if a computer screen can frazzle up when an sms goes thru, just think how those microwaves are cooking your brain? You don't have to think, you can feel the heat.
What to do? Use the phone less, and when you do use it, use ear phones that connect to the phone.
2) Coke and bottled water. I am one of the biggest culprits here. Coke is just such a bad idea if you want to lose weight or maintain a stable mindset (or mood). Bottled water isn't very healthy, and you actually pay for the nergy it takes to make the bottle, and transport the water to you. In its place, drink squeezed orange juice, and if you consume water, buy an aluminum flask and use filtration/purification systems if you don't trust the water in your area. Water - clean and fresh - is likely to become a bigger and bigger problem.
3) Finally, exercise. My ideal body weight - I measured it, is 66.8kg. I weight about 15kg more than that. That's a lot of fat to be lugging around. And the world could seriously do with people that are less fat, less vulgar in their consumption. So I'm going to literally tighten my belt. Exercise more, eat less, be less of an ogre to the planet.
I hope you will join me.
Thursday, June 05, 2008
The Cult of Fantasy (QUOTES OF THE DAY)
What does it mean to be Human (question posed on Wired.com):
NVDL: How we intuit the answer is what it means to you to be human. What does it mean to me. Wonderful and terrible possibilities. I agree that abstraction makes us different, but I prefer to see how human beings are part of Nature, rather than find ways to separate us from the world based on how 'special' we think we are. Our imagination may well be what saves us from our depraved thoughts and shallow beahviours.
In the end, the meaning of being human is found in each person and adds up to an aggregate score. As such we share responsibility for everthing that we do, including what is done by 'others'.
On The Media Reinforcing Negative Stereotypes.Stimulating Xenophobia:
Whether media are feeding stereotypes or whether actual events reinforce them is an interesting avenue for research. A self-fulfilling prophecy might be in operation: reportage on actual events gives rise to stereotypes, which are then reinforced by further coverage in the media. Whatever the case may be, media are in a better position than other centres of power in society to combat stereotypes (or enforce them), and therefore carry a grave responsibility. On this note it is rather ironic that Brazilians were never linked to crime, even when one major cocaine route runs between the airports of Sao Paulo and Johannesburg. Despite the fact that Brazil is one of South Africa's strongest economic and political BRIC partners, 63% of coverage on Brazilians as foreign nationals was directly linked to Carlos Parreira.
KunstlerCast:
Duncan Crary: Well, I want to talk to you about this. In The Long Emergency you go through a number of different alternative fuel sources, and you basically say they’re all fantasy. I know that people can drive a car across the country on used French fry oil, but as you said, you can’t power the American automobile fleet on this stuff.
James Howard Kunstler: Well, it’s a matter of scale. They don’t scale. They don’t scale up. Yeah, you can do all of these things on the science project basis, and you can do some of them even on a somewhat larger basis. But can you do it on the basis of powering the whole society on this? And the answer is, “No.”
We’re already beginning to see all kinds of unanticipated consequences from this ethanol program that we put in place about two years ago. And it’s reverberating in parts of the system, really quickly, that people never expected, that are leading down the path of hunger and famine because gas tanks and hungry bellies are now competing for the grain supply.
Does Vodacom Think We're Dumb - and smart ways to save money on your next cellphone contract
So Vodacom has just released its June/July catalogue. Not bad, but no iPhone in sight. Sorry.
Before we look at it in finer detail, here's a primer. In their most recent televised ads Vodacom show a silly, bald white man who doesn't make much sense ("trees grow on money" etc), and then a hip young black chap who is wise to all the latest tech-know-how. The young guy humors the bald dope, patiently, and in good humor, showing him how things work. And at the end, the white guy imparts his 'wisdom' clumsily to an attractive brunette (also white), who walks away with thinly bridled contempt. Moral of the story: old white guys are stupid. Young black guys are where its at. Whether you want to take this with a pinch of salt or not, this is the psychology Vodacom is peddling right now.
Having been involved in advertising, my gut feel is that this patronising ad (it's patronising to the black diamonds they're so desperate to build market share with) was conceived by white okes. The wordplay is very white. Do young black men need to be played up against stupid white farts to prove they're smart? I don't think so. I think there's another way to be funny, and clever. Couldn't we see young black actors playing the part of spies (carrying their web-enabled phones) and basically kicking butt in a future-paradigm - in other words, no racial undertones, just a rendering of web/mobile savviness that is leveraged by a super-sleuth type persona. I don't know about you, but I'm guessing we're grown up enough and sophisticated enough to enjoy that over Vodacom's current toilet humor silliness.
That said, my Vodacom contract is coming up for renewal/termination. I'm renewing, but I'm going to make the decision to save as much as possible on the package that is going to take me up to 2010. My expenses each month are, in order of bank break ability:
1) rent
2) communication (mobile + internet)
3) Food
4) Transport
5) Entertainment
4 and 5 possibly trade places, but I'm guessing 4 is going to be chugging up to rival the number 2 expenditure pretty soon.
So having looked at their bundles, here are a few pointers, do's and don'ts.
1) FREE* isn't free. The * refers to terms and conditions, and that shiny new handset is paid for, each and every penny, in your subscription fee over 24 months.
2) Look carefully at your subscription. Anything over R200 is going to hurt you over the next to years (if you're middle income like me, at any rate).
3) If you like to talk a lot, think of a Business package, that allows a cheapish rate 7 days a week, and at any hour of the day.
4) Don't be tempted by Wii players, Camcorders and all the rest. They may seem like a steal, but you're paying much more for these extras than you would if you just went to the store and bought the damn things in a one of purchase. Vodacom are cleverly offering nice Mac-books at "incredible" prices under R1000 a month. Here's the catch - for 36 months. I'm not sure how much Mac-books cost, but hazarding a guess it's got to be a lot less than R36 000. And anyway, I wouldn't be interested if it was more than a third of that price at this point. Yes, you can get good new computers for around R12 000. Be smart.
5) If you have the internet at home, and can access Facebook at home (and at work), don't bother with Facebook enbaled phones. Also watch those upfront fees. Thing about what you really need, not what you want.
My cellphone bill has fluctuated from R900 to almost R2000. I need to get it in the R500 - R750 ballpark. If I continue with a subscription of over R400, that's not going to work. Remember, your subscription is important to lower your overall costs, but the proportion of your subscription can also raise the overall costs, so be careful with your sums. I am going for a lower subscription, probably R185. Business Talk. I like Samsung, so I might get the Samsung i560 or the GPS enabled Samsung i780 (pay in R900) - for geo-blogging, or the Sony Erickson K850i. I have an idea it's between the two Samsung's, and probably not the i780. I've already indicated that I want to blog less than I am. I also want to call less than I do.
It is when these sort of contracts expire that we have a choice: repeat our mistakes, or continue to buy more things we don't need? I'm going to err on the side of less is more, because we know to expect less and less, and by exercising a choice to cut back, I think we have a better sense that we can handle the increasingly tough times ahead. I hope more will do the same. It's the logical way to live.
Here's a final quote to send you on your way - from the seminal Jim Kunstler:
The trouble in the United States is we’re driving incessantly. We’re driving every kind of car there is, incessantly. And we’ve got to find a way out of the incessant motoring and a way to live without it, and a happy way to live without it—not a punishment way to live without it, but a way to be happy and do it. And it means, really, a completely different paradigm for everyday life.
I can hear you saying: 'what does that have to do with buying a mobile phone?' Everything. Energy prices have everything to do with everything, and we can start changing everything we do, by examining everything we do. I sincerely hope that if you read this, you will begin to respond, by critically looking at what you consume, and internally accepting that we need to consume less. Then, when it comes time to exercise your needs and want, perhaps you (and I) will choose to exercise our demands a little less.
Excellent Insights Into You and Your Partner - Relational Psychology Test
Read the following questions, imagining the scenes in your mind, and write down the FIRST thing that you visualize. Do not think about the questions excessively. Write down what pops into your mind in the first instance. Remember, your minds imagination is completely free……
1. You are walking in the woods. You are walking with someone. Who are you walking with?
2. Around the corner behind a tree you hear rustling. You see an animal of sorts. What kind of animal is it?
3. Some or No interaction takes place between you and this animal. Describe what takes place?
4. You walk deeper into the woods....You enter a clearing and before you is your dream house. Describe it briefly.
5. Is this house surrounded by a fence or a wall, or is there none?
6. You enter the house. You walk to the dining room area and you see your dining room table. Describe what you see on and around the table.
7. You exit the house through the back door. Lying in the grass is a cup of sorts. Describe what it looks like, and what its made of.
8. After looking at the cup, what do you do with the cup if anything ?
9. You walk to the edge of the property, where there is a clearing. You come across water. What type of a body of water is it (a reservoir, creek, river, ocean, waterfall, pond, bog, storm-runoff…..remember to follow your first thoughts )
10. Presuming you have reached a large body of water that you need to get across, lets say a river, how do you do this?
This has been a relational psychology test. I hope you've actually done this test, because if you read the analysis below you lose the opportunity to learn and gain valuable insights about yourself. Take a moment, right now, to spend a few minutes using your imagination, to answer the above questions. Done? Now see what those thoughts mean.
The answers given to the questions have been shown to have a relevance to values and ideals that we hold in our personal lives. The analysis follows.
1. The person who you are walking with is the most important person in your life at this specific time.
2. The size of the animal is representative of your 'perception' of the size of your problems.
3. The severity of the interaction you have with the animal is representative of how you deal with your problems (passive, aggressive, not at all etc).
4. The size of your dream home is representative of the size of your ambition to resolve your problems.
5. No fence is indicative of an open personality. People are welcome at all times. The presence of a fence is more indicative of a closed personality, a private person.
6. If your answer did not include food, people, or flowers then your are generally unhappy.
7. The durability of the material with which the cup is made is representative of the perceived durability of your relationship with the person from number 1. For example, styrofoam, plastic, and paper are disposable; Styrofoam and paper, are not durable; glass, ceramics and crystal are fragile; and metal, wood, rock, plastic are permanent.
8. Your disposition of the cup is representative of your attitude toward the person in number 1.
9. The size of the body of water is representative of the size of your sexual desire, or sex drive.
10. How wet you get in crossing the water is indicative of the relative importance of your sex life.
NVDL: Tomorrow I will share some of the insights I've learned about myself, which in some cases fascinated, and in others, disturbed me.
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
The Slippery Slope: Life just got a lot more expensive
So tonight the price of petrol in South Africa goes up 50 cents. Let's put just tonight's price rise into perspective. For every 2 litres of petrol you put into your tank, you pay an extra R1. So if you put 50 litres of petrol in your car, you've basically bought an extra movie ticket, or a hamburger, with the extra cash - except of course you never get to watch the movie, or eat the hamburger. And this happens every time you fill up from tonight onwards.
On SABC TV news the fuel price hike was the top story. There is a lot of concern about the impact, with economists citing long haul trucking companies and bus companies starting to struggle. Plenty more is on the cards - airlines for one, supermarkets for another. Then, 10 minutes later into the bulletin, car makers start whining about declining production. The stats show year on year figures declining from 50 000 units a month, to 30-something thousand. However, they say, export volumes are still growing, and are now at 23 000 units a month? Errrrr...I wonder how many people have any idea how incredibly stupid the psychology is here. We don't like the fuel prices going up, and now we're not happy because we can't make more cars. Can anyone be any more cluelessand disconnected to reality?
The fuel price is going up - oh no, why, anger. Then - production in car volumes is going up - oh no, why, anger. I'd really like to know - if SA produces 50 000 units - that's cars that drink petrol - a month, how many units (that's cars that drink petrol) do other economies make, like South Korea, and Japan, and Germany, and the USA and China, and India. Every new vehicle is a new user. That's not just demand continuing as it is now, but growing demand for that new vehicle for the rest of its productive life. And of course the last thing anyone is thinking is - is it such a great idea to continue on the way we are going? I mean, are things ever likely to improve if we just continue building cars? Shall I answer the question for you? No.
I've also seen apparently intelligent journalists, economists - experts - saying that 'we can't do anything about high fuel prices'. Ordinary people say this a lot too. Bullshit. Actually, we can do a lot. Price is about supply and demand. Supply is struggling. Yet no one is starting conversations about changing our demand. Changing what you do every single day. From the ordinary things - like how far you drive to work, to car pooling, efficient driving habits (reduce speed, pump your cars tyres, take out stuff that doesn't need to be in your car) to the more extreme, such as cancelling NASCAR and Formula 1, restructuring our living arrangements (where w elive, how we live), investing in rail. You just don't hear that because everyone assumes - incorrectly - that this can somehow carry on and on. It's called wishful thinking. It's fantasy. It comes from watching too many movies and TV. It comes from a public used to getting what it wants, used to convenience, and utterly unused being told to change, being told to do something about an obvious problem.
The fact that obesity now is one of the world's chronic problems, while people are starving to death in other parts of the world, tells you how shizophrenic and sick our thinking is. It's not a normal world.
While everyone hopes that prices will magically come down, and the Antartic will start spewing oil, people just don't get that that's not going to happen. We are experiencing a major, and fundamental shift. We can adapt, or have those changes forced upon us. The question is, when do we wake up to reality?
When I drove back to Johannesburg on Sunday, at night, I got a gut feel sense about what impact oil actually has. I saw a faraway flame turning a large amount of sky around a Sasolburg chimney into sulphurous yellow daylight. The plant is designed to refine fossil fuels into stuff we can put in our cars, and burn, stuff that goes into our homes to light up our TV's and lights. It occurred to me, driving over the dark highway, that every light on every car, even the lights that show us our speed, whether we are braking, the galaxy of city lights making the sky glow a dull moony white above the city - every single light burns thanks to oil and coal pumped out of the ground, sucked and dredged out of the Earth and burned. And once it is gone, it's gone. We're burning vast amounts every day now, and every day, more and more machines line up to be marched into service.
On the highway I felt I couldn't imagine the huge cityscape of Johannesburg's lights, the long ruby snakes and glittering rows of diamonds burning this bright for much longer. And that gut feel happens to be on the money. Eskom has just announced a new load shedding schedule. And I predict that this year we will experience fuel shortages. That means the equivalent of power cuts, except we won't be able to power (run) our cars. For a few days at a time. And then a week. And then longer. It will happen this year, and if I am wrong, then I'll be glad. But it will happen eventually, and probably sooner than we think. Already experts are citing 'surprise'. The surprises have just started.
On SABC TV news the fuel price hike was the top story. There is a lot of concern about the impact, with economists citing long haul trucking companies and bus companies starting to struggle. Plenty more is on the cards - airlines for one, supermarkets for another. Then, 10 minutes later into the bulletin, car makers start whining about declining production. The stats show year on year figures declining from 50 000 units a month, to 30-something thousand. However, they say, export volumes are still growing, and are now at 23 000 units a month? Errrrr...I wonder how many people have any idea how incredibly stupid the psychology is here. We don't like the fuel prices going up, and now we're not happy because we can't make more cars. Can anyone be any more cluelessand disconnected to reality?
The fuel price is going up - oh no, why, anger. Then - production in car volumes is going up - oh no, why, anger. I'd really like to know - if SA produces 50 000 units - that's cars that drink petrol - a month, how many units (that's cars that drink petrol) do other economies make, like South Korea, and Japan, and Germany, and the USA and China, and India. Every new vehicle is a new user. That's not just demand continuing as it is now, but growing demand for that new vehicle for the rest of its productive life. And of course the last thing anyone is thinking is - is it such a great idea to continue on the way we are going? I mean, are things ever likely to improve if we just continue building cars? Shall I answer the question for you? No.
I've also seen apparently intelligent journalists, economists - experts - saying that 'we can't do anything about high fuel prices'. Ordinary people say this a lot too. Bullshit. Actually, we can do a lot. Price is about supply and demand. Supply is struggling. Yet no one is starting conversations about changing our demand. Changing what you do every single day. From the ordinary things - like how far you drive to work, to car pooling, efficient driving habits (reduce speed, pump your cars tyres, take out stuff that doesn't need to be in your car) to the more extreme, such as cancelling NASCAR and Formula 1, restructuring our living arrangements (where w elive, how we live), investing in rail. You just don't hear that because everyone assumes - incorrectly - that this can somehow carry on and on. It's called wishful thinking. It's fantasy. It comes from watching too many movies and TV. It comes from a public used to getting what it wants, used to convenience, and utterly unused being told to change, being told to do something about an obvious problem.
The fact that obesity now is one of the world's chronic problems, while people are starving to death in other parts of the world, tells you how shizophrenic and sick our thinking is. It's not a normal world.
While everyone hopes that prices will magically come down, and the Antartic will start spewing oil, people just don't get that that's not going to happen. We are experiencing a major, and fundamental shift. We can adapt, or have those changes forced upon us. The question is, when do we wake up to reality?
When I drove back to Johannesburg on Sunday, at night, I got a gut feel sense about what impact oil actually has. I saw a faraway flame turning a large amount of sky around a Sasolburg chimney into sulphurous yellow daylight. The plant is designed to refine fossil fuels into stuff we can put in our cars, and burn, stuff that goes into our homes to light up our TV's and lights. It occurred to me, driving over the dark highway, that every light on every car, even the lights that show us our speed, whether we are braking, the galaxy of city lights making the sky glow a dull moony white above the city - every single light burns thanks to oil and coal pumped out of the ground, sucked and dredged out of the Earth and burned. And once it is gone, it's gone. We're burning vast amounts every day now, and every day, more and more machines line up to be marched into service.
On the highway I felt I couldn't imagine the huge cityscape of Johannesburg's lights, the long ruby snakes and glittering rows of diamonds burning this bright for much longer. And that gut feel happens to be on the money. Eskom has just announced a new load shedding schedule. And I predict that this year we will experience fuel shortages. That means the equivalent of power cuts, except we won't be able to power (run) our cars. For a few days at a time. And then a week. And then longer. It will happen this year, and if I am wrong, then I'll be glad. But it will happen eventually, and probably sooner than we think. Already experts are citing 'surprise'. The surprises have just started.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
The Bogeyman: The Sickest Person In Human History
Albert Hamilton Fish (May 19, 1870 – January 16, 1936) was an American sado-masochistic pedophile, torture murderer, serial killer and cannibal. He was also known as the Gray Man, the Werewolf of Wysteria, the Brooklyn Vampire, and The Bogeyman.He boasted that he had "had children in every state," putting the figure at around 100, although it is not clear whether he was talking about molestation or cannibalization, less still as to whether it was true or not.
He was a suspect in at least five killings in his lifetime. Fish confessed to three murders that police were able to trace to a known homicide, and confessed to stabbing at least two other people. He was put on trial for the kidnap and murder of Grace Budd, and was convicted and executed via electric chair.
His letter to Mrs Budd:
Dear Mrs. Budd. In 1894 a friend of mine shipped as a deck hand on the Steamer Tacoma, Capt. John Davis. They sailed from San Francisco for Hong Kong, China. On arriving there he and two others went ashore and got drunk. When they returned the boat was gone. At that time there was famine in China. Meat of any kind was from $1-3 per pound. So great was the suffering among the very poor that all children under 12 were sold for food in order to keep others from starving. A boy or girl under 14 was not safe in the street. You could go in any shop and ask for steak—chops—or stew meat. Part of the naked body of a boy or girl would be brought out and just what you wanted cut from it. A boy or girl's behind which is the sweetest part of the body and sold as veal cutlet brought the highest price. John staid [sic] there so long he acquired a taste for human flesh. On his return to N.Y. he stole two boys, one 7 and one 11. Took them to his home stripped them naked tied them in a closet. Then burned everything they had on. Several times every day and night he spanked them – tortured them – to make their meat good and tender. First he killed the 11 year old boy, because he had the fattest ass and of course the most meat on it. Every part of his body was cooked and eaten except the head—bones and guts. He was roasted in the oven (all of his ass), boiled, broiled, fried and stewed. The little boy was next, went the same way. At that time, I was living at 409 E 100 St. near—right side. He told me so often how good human flesh was I made up my mind to taste it. On Sunday June the 3, 1928 I called on you at 406 W 15 St. Brought you pot cheese—strawberries. We had lunch. Grace sat in my lap and kissed me. I made up my mind to eat her. On the pretense of taking her to a party. You said yes she could go. I took her to an empty house in Westchester I had already picked out. When we got there, I told her to remain outside. She picked wildflowers. I went upstairs and stripped all my clothes off. I knew if I did not I would get her blood on them. When all was ready I went to the window and called her. Then I hid in a closet until she was in the room. When she saw me all naked she began to cry and tried to run down the stairs. I grabbed her and she said she would tell her mamma. First I stripped her naked. How she did kick – bite and scratch. I choked her to death, then cut her in small pieces so I could take my meat to my rooms. Cook and eat it. How sweet and tender her little ass was roasted in the oven. It took me 9 days to eat her entire body. I did not fuck her tho I could of had I wished. She died a virgin.[4]
More here.
NVDL: Anybody who can read this and still believe the death penalty is uncivilised and verboten ought to re-evaluate the human condition.
2 Views Worth Reading
World at 'alarming juncture' as leaders gather for FAO summit
This is the most intelligent coverage I've found so far on the topic (besides what I've written he he):
XENOPHOBIA: What lies beneath
This is the most intelligent coverage I've found so far on the topic (besides what I've written he he):
XENOPHOBIA: What lies beneath
Kunstler: Feeling Good Are Ya?
...all the backward-looking crybaby complaints that "we were lied to" still does not answer the basic question: what should have been the appropriate response to the extreme injury of 9/11? A diplomatic protest? An investigation by the UN? The surreptitious assassination of Arab troublemakers all around the world? I don't think the "we were lied to" contingent has a credible answer to this question.
There's another hugely important realm of inquiry that the "we were lied to" folks have never addressed: who lied to us about the way we live in this country? About the amount of oil we consume in the service of all our comforts and conveniences? About our extreme car dependence and what is required in our relations with the rest of the world to sustain it. All these years, Frank Rich and all his whining colleagues at the New York Times barely acknowledged the domestic fiasco of the suburban sprawl economy that placed us in such jeopardy to begin with. Even now, with the airlines disintegrating and gasoline over $4 (diesel over $5) I haven't heard any of these crybabies even raise the issue of restoring the US railroad system. How many of these crybabies live suburban lives themselves, in places like Louden County, Virginia, or Westchester, or Long Island, or the San Fernando Valley? Who lied to us about that?
For my money, the "we were lied to" chorus only represents the obdurately self-righteous cluelessness in every band of the American political spectrum. We lied to ourselves. We continue to lie to ourselves every day. The US public barely understands the first thing about the energy predicament we're in, and what it means for how we live in this country -- or how we get along with the rest of the world -- and the news media tragically reflects that ignorance. We fantasize about being "energy independent" and still being able to drive to the mall three times a day to eat caesar salads grown on the other side of North America. Get this: we deserve what is exactly happening to us. We might as well keep on lying to ourselves to pretend that we are not descending into a dark time. After all, the true basis of American life these days is to feel good about yourself no matter what you do.
There's another hugely important realm of inquiry that the "we were lied to" folks have never addressed: who lied to us about the way we live in this country? About the amount of oil we consume in the service of all our comforts and conveniences? About our extreme car dependence and what is required in our relations with the rest of the world to sustain it. All these years, Frank Rich and all his whining colleagues at the New York Times barely acknowledged the domestic fiasco of the suburban sprawl economy that placed us in such jeopardy to begin with. Even now, with the airlines disintegrating and gasoline over $4 (diesel over $5) I haven't heard any of these crybabies even raise the issue of restoring the US railroad system. How many of these crybabies live suburban lives themselves, in places like Louden County, Virginia, or Westchester, or Long Island, or the San Fernando Valley? Who lied to us about that?
For my money, the "we were lied to" chorus only represents the obdurately self-righteous cluelessness in every band of the American political spectrum. We lied to ourselves. We continue to lie to ourselves every day. The US public barely understands the first thing about the energy predicament we're in, and what it means for how we live in this country -- or how we get along with the rest of the world -- and the news media tragically reflects that ignorance. We fantasize about being "energy independent" and still being able to drive to the mall three times a day to eat caesar salads grown on the other side of North America. Get this: we deserve what is exactly happening to us. We might as well keep on lying to ourselves to pretend that we are not descending into a dark time. After all, the true basis of American life these days is to feel good about yourself no matter what you do.
Monday, June 02, 2008
Why Blog?
Like David Bullard, I've come to the realisation that I can't afford to blog. My life is severely out of whack, not necessarily because of blogging, but blogging certainly hasn't helped. So I've done some thinking on the highway - not the information highway - the highway highway, and I'm pretty clear on a few changes I'd like to make.
This weekend quite a few people commented on the fact that I've lost weight and am looking good, and you know, that gives me a much greater kick than I get from blogging. I would much rather see my weight go down to 80kg than see my blogs hits break 100 000, or make the top 10 on some blog ranking. Honestly. I started blogging actually simply to record, share and inspire (myself and others) about my progress in triathlon, and specifically Ironman. Blogging has since served other functions, namely to promote my writing and photography, and to communicate some of my concerns regarding the conundrums our world faces. It is a place those who know me come to see what I've been doing, what's happening in South Africa and in my world, but to the extent that it's just been reflecting news, it's been squeezing out some of the original ethos.
Realistically, I'm not sure if I have managed to convert many people to care about what is happening and where we're headed - those who visit my blog regularly were converted long ago. And it's tiresome preaching to the converted. I would rather make this space about what we can do, who we can be, than endlessly addressing concerns to a world out there that's still not ready to listen (this may change when that changes.) An awesome blog that addresses Peak Oil issues, is here. I'm going to rededicate this blog to showcasing some of the writing and photography projects I'm busy with. Right now there are a few exciting ones, and some I can't talk about right now, but there are some big projects hanging in the balance, including TV, including some big names. So potentially very exciting.
N is for Nature. Not news. I've also grown tired critiquing the media, and want to now move away from that entirely. This blog was never started as a news and politics blog, and I've never wanted it to be that either. That doesn't mean I am gagging myself, it simply means I'm going to pay less attention to it. The news media as far as I'm concerned, is like the Joker, in Batman. It's witty, it's entertaining, sometimes fresh and interesting, sometimes it shows a bit of pazzazz, even muscle, but essentially we don't need to consume nearly as much as we are - it's a distraction from what we ought to be doing. It is also seldom what it was designed to be: a public service.
News now is entirely what the reader chooses to focus on. You can Google your way to the sort of news you want, irrespective of whether it reflects astute reporting or not. I discovered that even when I started reading the so-called best journalism, from the likes of the Guardian and Financial Times, the news didn't really give me anything to work with. Even the 'best' news, is still really a particular view from within a particular context. A lot of it is flawed, and patently unsophisticated. The majority of news doesn't offer any coherent insights, it simply tells us what is happening, and we hear the same thing repeated on TV, radio, online and in the newspaper. It's not very meaningful or useful. We never hear the answer to: why? We simply get fed what on and on and on.
This weekend for example, I didn't read either a Saturday paper or a Sunday paper, and I am beginning to feel that it's healthier to limit the amount of information - especially what is labelled 'news' - that we allow into our heads. How much is really relevant to our lives? And what do we learn from the stuff that is?
Also, I used to think that blogs can provide an important function to build networks and communities. Sure, they can. They seldom do, and when they do, it's seldom meaningful. That I predict will change, and quite soon. I hope so. I think I have met one person through my blog. We are far better served to get up from our computers and go to the gym, and work on our bodies, our health, our relationships with others, than to surf around 'cyberspace' any more than we really have to. Clicking a mouse pad does little to change the world, or our own circumstances.
What does this mean? Less blogging. I might skip two or three days in a week (hopefully more). I'm going to be focusing more of my time on being in the gym, and out on the bike. I weigh 83kg now and I want to get that number under 80kg. Blogging tends to eat into time I might otherwise be dedicating to sweating, to moving, to FUN! I will be doing a weekly column in the style of James Kunstler's Clusterfuck Chronicles every Monday, called The View From My Bicycle. It's not necessarily about cycling either. I also intend to dedicate at least one day a week to discussing either Nature, Virtue, Discipline or Logic. There will also be more personal material, but obviously not to the extent that it violates anyone's privacy (including my own).
My original idea was to ease down on blogging once I reached 100 000, but I'd like to moderate my effort from now on instead. For those who visit my blog regularly, I'd also like to encourage you to get out into the sunshine, move your body, and enjoy the gift of living. I saw an animal today with the lower half of his body paralysed, and really, facing the creep of death. We have much to be grateful for, and I don't believe the internet is the place to celebrate that.
The View From My Bicycle (Column from my Daily Planet, introduced 2008, updated Mondays)
The Bicycling Profession (this is something I originally wrote for Bicycling Magazine, and the editor said he fond it sort've a fable, sort've hard reporting and so needed to sniff at it some more).
Our lives have become fiercely competitive and fiercely co-operative, but bicycling helps us find balance and connection
Perhaps the most vital attribute a cyclist needs to have is – wait-for-it – slimness. At a time when energy costs especially are forcing companies and individuals to be as efficient as they can be, carrying unnecessary fat and burning unnecessary fuel is a big no-no. Slimness allows for efficiency and important, quick adaptation, flexibility and rapid response to a changing scenario. In car terms it’s a Yaris and a Hummer racing one another for the nearest petrol station in peak hour traffic. Being lightweight allows for easier movement, better overall health and a reduced risk of injury notwithstanding the effects of gravity and entropy.
Coherent, Cohesive Intelligence
But one of the biggest sins in cycling (beyond obesity) is being a hothead that sprints foolishly ahead of the bunch; wasting precious endowments of glucose and getting nowhere. In this sense, tact and intelligence are vital. Pure strength, technology on its own, lightness, all the ingredients on their own are not enough to guarantee a good ride. They must be integrated into a coherent system, a program (both in terms of training and how these sessions are employed towards effective racing performances).
All By Myself
Naturally of course there are riders who rebel against the herd instinct. They don’t want to conform, they want to rebel. Every rider feels this at some stage. There is a compulsion be an individual, to indulge in what one wants when one wants it. It’s the consumer-mindset. The heaviest rider in a bunch will shoot ahead of the pack on a downhill…why not allow himself to get ahead, and build momentum for the next uphill? A light rider might find the pace up the steepest section far too slow. Sooner or later those initial gains are countered by working alone against the wind. An alliance with other individuals sometimes (rarely) pays off. The place for individual effort is just before the finish line. So cycling involves the strategic use of a collective co-operative effort. In the working world and even at home, teamwork and co-operation will benefit both the individual and community.
Specialized
Our highly specialized vocations allow us to do one thing, while someone else does something else important, and so almost no time is needed to put food on the table – this is a modern co-operative innovation that took agrarian societies millennia to realize. Living in villages connected to other villages by roads is another trick unique to modern society that we take for granted, yet without the company of others the sukkel for food and basic necessities would dominate our days. In cycling, staying in the group has profound benefits. Ask anyone who has labored alone on the long road against the wind, having to deal with cramps, punctures and other mishaps all by himself.
To see the co-operation of cyclists in action is to see something beautiful. On the first loop of the OFM (on the Thaba Nchu road) colorful flotillas of synchronicity SSSSHHHHHHIISSHHH by one another on opposite sides of the highway. Each large group is essentially its own organism, a cyclopede of wheels and legs. The message is obvious: if consumers and surburbanites realize they are part of a larger organism, like cyclists in a peloton, the entire system becomes more functionally efficient.
While even the everyday rider will experience fierce competitiveness of other riders, for the bulk of a race the imperative to co-operate is even fiercer. Riders will often book a place in a line and curse and spit, prod and push when their ‘spot’ is taken by someone else. Riders who have never seen each other before suddenly work together, talking to each other, shouting and swearing if co-operation isn’t adequately rendered. It’s essentially a short-term scenario of close co-operation for an anonymous crowd of individuals. All they have in common is a common destination and whirring wheels between their hamstrings. But once again the benefits in terms of energy saving are real.
Perhaps cycling’s greatest lesson is that it instills a very real sense of community amongst its members. The rider needs to depend and be very aware of those around him or her, and must also realize others are depending on there being a co-operative effort too. If a surbanite builds high walls and instills the best alarm system, but a neighbor does not, the surbanite is just as vulnerable as the neighbor. To apply a cyclist’s co-operative strategy to this case: a neighborhood watch paid for by the community it protects benefits everyone. The wealthy helping out the poor benefit the entire community. Cycling uniquely places the teenager, the strong 20-something, and the old Oom in the same group, and allows them the opportunity to challenge, co-operate and compete.
The basics of cycling involve ups and downs, inevitably punctures and breakdowns – and how to get over these with minimum strain and maximum enjoyment. How to fly without falling? Isn’t this what life is all about? Cycling well means balancing a host of important psychological skills: anticipation, using and conserving momentum, executing strategy and most important – developing a thriving economy, whatever the energy constraints may be.
The Road to Verkeerdevlei (PHOTOGRAPHY)
I've done the JHB to BFN commute in 3h15, and that included limping through the last 60km at around 100km behind a traffic jam of trucks. Since few people are more aware than I am about the Peak Oil problem, I determined to drive slower on Saturday - with a few to saving fuel. Think about it. If you drive from A-B, the faster you go, the more fuel you consume extra over what it would have taken to get there anyway. Some experts have advised an international speed limit of 90km/h.
When I got to the last tollgate at Verkeerdevlei I thought I'd skip it and head off to Brandfort. Immediately the road turned to gravel, and the 20km stretch through muddy ditches and dirt dongas sucked up a lot of time. But it was also a piece of road I had never been on before, and I found the ordinary and otherwise unseen Free State scenery quite bewitching. I stopped for a few photos of sunflowers that were desiccated and seemingly fossilised against the Free State's ageless blue sky. In the end I did the trip in about 4h45.
On the way back - leaving at around 6pm - I was less altruistic. I ended up cruising at 140km/h most of the way, and in the last 20km a speed camera lense singed my number plate into memory as my car's silver body sizzle by at 150km/h. I'm guessing that's a R500 fine.
It occurred to me that a 90km/h speed limit is a daydream. Even with higher fuel prices, people aren't really feeling it enough to change their driving habits. But we're getting there. In large landmass countries (the US, Oz and here), fuel is still pretty cheap. But a few years from now a drive to Bloem will be a major undertaking. It will be what flying used to be like, once upon a time. And flying, by the by, will be out, unless you're one of the president's men, or Nicky Oppenheimer.
Wouldn't it be nice if, in order to save fuel, they began NO DRIVE ZONES. So perhaps you may only drive from JHB to Kroonstad, and then from there you have to bicycle the rest of the way. What fun - entire highway sections devoted to cycling. Or NO DRIVE WEEKENDS - but cyclists are free to use the carriageways. Then, if you wanted to visit someone in Bloem and they wanted to visit you, you could meet halfway in Kroonstad. Now I know it sounds insane, but 200km on a bike is manageable if you have the whole day. You do 100km in the morning, 70 in the afternoon, and then 30km warm down. And let's face it, the road from JHB to BFN is flat as a pancake.
If prices break through the roof it might actually be quite fun...of course not including the poor out there whose survival is at stake. On the drive back I noticed with alarm the number of shacks that are literally an arm and leg away from the edge of the N1, and there is no fence. We have a long way to go before we become this daydream society singing 'The Hills Are Alive With The Sound Of Music', as we happily peddle our bicycles over free and thriving farmland. But it's fairytale worth keeping in the back of our minds I think.
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