New York Times, NBC and the Tribune Co. in Financial Trouble

Media conglomerate Tribune Co., smothered by $13 billion in debt and a drop-off in advertising, on Monday became the first major newspaper publisher to seek bankruptcy protection since the Internet sent the industry into a tailspin.

A terrible fall season at NBC is forcing the network to consider scaling back the number of hours it airs programming, Chief Executive Jeff Zucker told an investor conference Monday. - The Huffington Post

NVDL: I am sure that bloggers will be there to pick up the pieces, providing news and entertainment (and everything in-between), and doing so for free.

clipped from www.huffingtonpost.com The New York Times Company plans to borrow up to $225 million against its mid-Manhattan headquarters building, to ease a potential cash flow squeeze as the company grapples with tighter credit and shrinking profits. Tribune Company Files For Bankruptcy Protection clipped from www.huffingtonpost.com mollysgran See Profile I'm a Fan of mollysgran I lost interest in TV over 4 years ago, and only watch a few movies now and then. It is all a waste of time, and caters to dull minds. Books and the internet are the best way to stay informed. clipped from www.huffingtonpost.com roybattyjunior See Profile I'm a Fan of roybattyjunior Good. 30 years of unfettered corporatism is following its master, Milton Friedman, to the grave. A fitting quote for his toxic legacy: "O, what a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive!"

Oil Prices Send Stocks Down Sharply

The price of oil surged more than $6 a barrel Friday morning, the biggest gain in more than three months, sending the stock market into a nose-dive and reversing Thursday’s gains.
By ABHA BHATTARAI
Investors are worried that the rising price of oil, coupled with bleak unemployment data that was released Friday morning, will continue to hurt businesses and suppress consumer spending in an already-weak economy.

In addition, a report by Morgan Stanley on Friday said that oil prices could reach $150 a barrel by July 4 because of higher demand in Asia.

The Dow Jones industrials were down 234 points, or 1.85 percent in mid-morning trading, with financial stocks taking the biggest hit. The Dow was also dragged down by shares of American International Group, which stumbled after accusations that the company may have overstated the value of contracts tied to subprime mortgages. Shares of A.I.G. fell $2.43, or more than 6 percent, to $43.98.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 22.79 points, or 1.6 percent, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 37.76 points, or 1.5 percent.

Oil was up more than $6.10 a barrel, or about 5 percent, to $133.89 within the first hour and half of trading, hitting a new record high. The spike came despite no specific disruption in the oil market, suggesting that the move was based on speculation.

NVDL: Banks are taking a big hit. I hope, if you're reading this, you don't have money in bank stocks.

Blogging/Airing The Dirty Laundry

This week, the potential of the Internet to expose and disgrace when marriages fall apart came into stark relief as Tricia Walsh Smith, who is being divorced by Philip Smith, a theater executive, put a video on YouTube announcing that they never had sex, and yet she found him hoarding Viagra, pornography and condoms.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Smith’s lawyer, David Aronson, called the video “appalling” and said: “Mr. Smith is a very private person. This is obviously embarrassing.”

By LESLIE KAUFMAN
When the Ex Blogs, the Dirtiest Laundry Is Aired -a New York Times story.

NVDL: This quote from the article is interesting:
In separation, of course, one person’s truth can be another’s lie. Often the postings are furtive. But even when the ex-spouse is well aware that he or she is starring in a blog and sues to stop it, recent rulings in New York and Vermont have showed the courts reluctant to intervene.

When People Drink Themselves Silly, and Why

The urge to binge mindlessly, though it can strike at any time, seems to stir in the collective unconscious during the last weeks of winter. Maybe it’s the television images from places like Fort Lauderdale and Cabo San Lucas, of communications majors’ face planting outside bars or on beaches.

Or perhaps it’s a simple a case of seasonal affective disorder in reverse. Not SAD at all, but anticipation of warmth and eagerness for a little disorder.

Either way, researchers have had a hard time understanding binge behavior. Until recently, their definition of binge drinking — five drinks or more in 24 hours — was so loose that it invited debate and ridicule from some scholars. And investigators who ventured into the field, into the spray of warm backwash and press of wet T-shirts, often returned with findings like this one from a 2006 study: “Spring break trips are a risk factor for escalated alcohol use.”

Or this, from a 1998 analysis: “The men’s reported levels of alcohol consumption, binge drinking and intoxication were significantly higher than the women’s.”

...Western societies, and certainly the United States, send multiple signals on bingeing. At times, the signals cross, as when movies show spring-break binging as sunburned, sexy fun, while health pronouncements make it look like an orgy of near-criminal behavior...

By BENEDICT CAREY

More.

Markets Fall on Drumbeat of Grim Reports (NYT)

An outpouring of negative economic and financial reports soured the mood on Wall
Street Friday as banks and other lenders further tightened credit in their
struggle to contain damage from losses on mortgages, business loans and related
debt.

Shares sank, and investors fled to the
safety of Treasuries as the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 2.71
percent and the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 315.79 points, or 2.51
percent, to 12,266.39. Both indexes capped their worst four months since 2002.

More.

NVDL: The world is changing for the long term and it will affect YOU.

‘No Country for Old Men’ Wins Oscar Tug of War (+SLIDESHOW)

HOLLYWOOD — “No Country for Old Men,” Joel and Ethan Coen’s chilling confrontation of a desperate man with a relentless killer, won the Academy Award for best picture on Sunday night, providing a more-than-satisfying ending for the makers of a film that many believed lacked one.

The Coens, who live in New York and remain aloof from the Hollywood establishment, also shared the directing and adapted screenplay awards. Joel Coen thanked the academy members for “letting us continue to play in our corner of the sandbox.”

No film ran away with the night, however, as the 80th annual Academy Awards gave a bruised movie industry a chance to refocus its ever-inward gaze on laurels instead of labor strife.

Daniel Day-Lewis won best actor for his portrayal of a ruthless oil tycoon’s rise from the sweat and sludge of wildcatting to wealth, power and madness in “There Will Be Blood.”

Tilda Swinton took best supporting actress for playing a nervous wreck of a corporate lawyer who throws morality under the bus of her ambition in “Michael Clayton.”

The indie delight “Juno,” about a pregnant teenager with a mouth on her, won for best original screenplay, by Diablo Cody, who once worked as a stripper. She tearfully thanked her family for “loving me for who I am.”

More.

Click here to view slideshow.

NVDL: I watched 'Michael Clayton' over the weekend. George Clooney is a bozo; Tilda Swinton put in a perfect performance, but then she was made for this role. Later I will post an article titled: Is George Looney? He is currently featured in TIME magazine - including on the cover - but I believe he is one of the most overrated actors in movie history. And that's all he knows: how to be a movie star (and apparently all he wants).

Top National treasure in South Korea destroyed in Fire

SEOUL, South Korea — The destruction in a fire of the 600-year-old southern gate to what was once the walled city of Seoul, a landmark that survived foreign invasions and wars to be designated South Korea’s top national treasure, has shocked the nation.

A 69-year-old man suspected of setting the fire was arrested Monday night on Kanghwa Island, west of Seoul, The Associated Press reported the police as saying. The man was identified only by his family name, Chae.

The suspect “has confessed his crime,” said Kim Young-soo, chief at a police station handling the case in Seoul, The Associated Press said. The police have a letter from the suspect complaining about a land dispute with a development company, Mr. Kim was quoted as saying, adding that the suspect maintains he did not get enough compensation from the developer for his land in Kyonggi Province near Seoul.

Mr. Kim said the man had been charged in 2006 with setting fire to the Changgyeong Palace in Seoul, which caused $4,230 in damage.

“The Republic of Korea could not even defend its national treasure No. 1!” one front-page newspaper headline lamented, using South Korea’s formal name.

The fire destroyed Sungnyemun, better known to Koreans and foreign tourists as Namdaemun, or Great South Gate. “With this fire, our national pride was burned down as well,” said Lee Kyung-sook, top aide to President-elect Lee Myung-bak, who rushed to the scene of the blaze on Monday.

Namdaemun, made of wood and stone with a two-tiered, pagoda-shaped tiled roof, was completed in 1398 and served as the main southern entrance to Seoul, which was then a walled city. It was the oldest wooden structure in the country, an iconic reminder of old Korea in this modern Asian city, the capital of South Korea, and a major tourist attraction. The site is surrounded by a bustling commercial district. Lately, homeless people had sought shelter there.
By CHOE SANG-HUN
More.

NVDL: This is quite tragic. Many berautiful temples were burned to a crisp by the japanese, so every original wood structure they have is precious. Some walls and buildings in this country are not just hundreds of years old, but sometimes 1000 or over 2000 years old. It's a fascinating country for the reason that it had numerous kingdoms and dynasties, and is probably one of the longest remaining cohesive cultures in the world. The Chinese is another.

HarperCollins Will Post Free Books on the Web

In an attempt to increase book sales, HarperCollins Publishers will begin offering free electronic editions of some of its books on its Web site, including a novel by Paulo Coelho and a cookbook by the Food Network star Robert Irvine.

The idea is to give readers the opportunity to sample the books online in the same way that prospective buyers can flip through books in a bookstore.

“It’s like taking the shrink wrap off a book,” said Jane Friedman, chief executive of HarperCollins Publishers Worldwide. “The best way to sell books is to have the consumer be able to read some of that content.”

More.

NVDL: Agg...I did that ages ago ;-). Click on the tag HOLIDAY (below).

First Job Losses in 4 Years Raise Recession Fears

The nation’s employers eliminated 17,000 jobs in January, the government reported Friday, the first decline in the work force in more than four years, and the strongest signal yet that the United States may be in the early stages of a recession.

Politically, the job figures were particularly troubling for the Republican Party and President Bush, who had just this week responded to doubts about the economy by noting in his State of the Union address a 52-month streak of uninterrupted job growth. That streak ended last month.

The broad weakness in the job market, which affected many sectors, shows how the collapse of the housing bubble is rippling through the rest of the economy and suggests the likelihood of more pain for millions of American families in the months ahead from job losses, lower real wages and fewer working hours.

Citing the new jobs report, Mr. Bush — who was in Kansas City, Mo., on the third day of a trip that also took him to California, Nevada and Colorado — acknowledged that it provided “some troubling signs” that the economy was weakening.

By LOUIS UCHITELLE and MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
More.

Web Playgrounds of the Very Young

LOS ANGELES — Forget Second Life. The real virtual world gold rush centers on the grammar-school set.

“Pirates of the Caribbean” is one of Disney’s virtual worlds.
Trying to duplicate the success of blockbuster Web sites like Club Penguin and Webkinz, children’s entertainment companies are greatly accelerating efforts to build virtual worlds for children. Media conglomerates in particular think these sites — part online role-playing game and part social scene — can deliver quick growth, help keep movie franchises alive and instill brand loyalty in a generation of new customers.

Second Life and other virtual worlds for grown-ups have enjoyed intense media attention in the last year but fallen far short of breathless expectations. The children’s versions are proving much more popular, to the dismay of some parents and child advocacy groups. Now the likes of the Walt Disney Company, which owns Club Penguin, are working at warp speed to pump out sister sites.

“Get ready for total inundation,” said Debra Aho Williamson, an analyst at the research firm eMarketer, who estimates that 20 million children will be members of a virtual world by 2011, up from 8.2 million today.

Worlds like Webkinz, where children care for stuffed animals that come to life, have become some of the Web’s fastest-growing businesses. More than six million unique visitors logged on to Webkinz in November, up 342 percent from November 2006, according to ComScore Media Metrix, a research firm.

Club Penguin, where members pay $5.95 a month to dress and groom penguin characters and play games with them, attracts seven times more traffic than Second Life. In one sign of the times, Electric Sheep, a software developer that helps companies market their brands in virtual worlds like Second Life and There.com, last week laid off 22 people, about a third of its staff.

By contrast, Disney last month introduced a “Pirates of the Caribbean” world aimed at children 10 and older, and it has worlds on the way for “Cars” and Tinker Bell, among others. Nickelodeon, already home to Neopets, is spending $100 million to develop a string of worlds. Coming soon from Warner Brothers Entertainment, part of Time Warner: a cluster of worlds based on its Looney Tunes, Hanna-Barbera and D. C. comics properties.

Add to the mix similar offerings from toy manufacturers like Lego and Mattel. Upstart technology companies, particularly from overseas, are also elbowing for market share. Mind Candy, a British company that last month introduced a world called Moshi Monsters, and Stardoll, a site from Sweden, sign up thousands of members in the United States each day.

“There is a massive opportunity here,” said Steve Wadsworth, president of the Walt Disney Internet Group, in an interview last week.

Behind the virtual world gravy train are fraying traditional business models. As growth engines like television syndication and movie DVD sales sputter or plateau — and the Internet disrupts entertainment distribution in general — Disney, Warner Brothers and Viacom see online games and social networking as a way to keep profits growing.

But more is at stake than cultivating new revenue streams. For nearly 50 years, since the start of Saturday morning cartoons, the television set has served as the front door to the children’s entertainment business. A child encounters Mickey Mouse on the Disney Channel or Buzz Lightyear on a DVD and before long seeks out related merchandise and yearns to visit Walt Disney World.

Now the proliferation of broadband Internet access is forcing players to rethink the ways they reach young people. “Kids are starting to go to the Internet first,” Mr. Wadsworth said.

Disney’s biggest online world is Club Penguin, which it bought in August from three Canadians in a deal worth $700 million. At the time, more than 700,000 members paid fees of $5.95 a month, delivering annual revenue of almost $50 million.

Still, one world, even a very successful one, does not alter the financial landscape at a $35.5 billion company like Disney. So Disney is pursuing a portfolio approach, investing $5 million to $10 million per world to develop a string of as many as 10 virtual properties, people familiar with Disney’s plans said.

Tinker Bell’s world, called Pixie Hollow, illustrates the company’s game plan. Disney is developing the site internally — creative executives who help design new theme park attractions are working on it — and will introduce it this summer to help build buzz for “Tinker Bell,” a big-budget feature film set for a fall 2008 release.

Visitors to a rudimentary version of Pixie Hollow, reachable through Disney.com, have already created four million fairy avatars, or online alter egos, according to Disney. The site will ultimately allow users to play games (“help create the seasons”) and interact with other “fairies.” When avatars move across the screen, they leave a sparkling trail of pixie dust, a carefully designed part of the experience.

“We wanted to come up with a way to make flying around the site feel really good,” said Paul Yanover, executive vice president and managing director of Disney Online.

Disney’s goal is to develop a network of worlds that appeal to various age groups, much like the company’s model. Preschool children might start with Pixie Hollow or Toon Town, another of Disney’s worlds, grow into Club Penguin and the one for “Cars” and graduate to “Pirates of the Caribbean” and beyond, perhaps to fantasy football at ESPN.com.

“All the stars are aligning for virtual worlds to become a mass-market form of entertainment, especially for kids and families,” Mr. Yanover said.

If virtual worlds for adults are about escaping from run-of-the-mill lives, sites for children tap into the desire to escape from the confines of reality as run by mom and dad. “I get to decide everything on Club Penguin,” said Nathaniel Wartzman, age 9, of Los Angeles, who also has a membership to a world called RuneScape.

But shopping is a powerful draw, too; most sites let children accumulate virtual points or spend their allowance money to buy digital loot. “It’s really fun to buy whatever you want inside the game,” Nathaniel said in a telephone interview. For his penguin, “like for Christmas I bought a fireplace, a flat-screen TV and a Christmas tree,” he said.

Online worlds, which typically have low overhead and fat profit margins once they are up and running, charge a monthly fee of $5 to $15 and require the adoption of an avatar. Some sites are free and rely on advertising to make money; others are advertising and subscription hybrids. Webkinz relies on the sale of stuffed animals, which come with tags that unlock digital content.

The power of the virtual worlds business was shown recently when Vivendi announced a plan to buy Activision, a publisher of video games for consoles like the Sony PlayStation 3. Vivendi owns World of Warcraft, a virtual world for adults with more than nine million members and revenue of more than $1 billion.

Still, the long-term appetite for the youth-oriented sites is unclear. Fads have always whipsawed the children’s toy market, and Web sites are no different, analysts warn. Parents could tire of paying the fees, while intense competition threatens to undercut the novelty. There are now at least 10 virtual worlds that involve caring for virtual pets.

Privacy and safety are a growing concern, particularly as companies aim at younger children. Some virtual worlds are now meant to appeal to preschoolers, using pictures to control actions so that reading is not required.

And critics are sharpening their knives. “We cannot allow the media and marketing industries to construct a childhood that is all screens, all the time,” said Susan Linn, a Boston psychologist and the director of the Campaign for a Commercial-Free Childhood, a nonprofit group that has complained of ads for movies on Webkinz.com.

Operators shrug off worries about fads and competition. “Are features like creating an avatar a long-term advantage for anyone? Probably not,” Mr. Yanover said. “The viability and sustainability of this business comes from the shifting behavior of kids and how they spend their leisure time.”

As for privacy and safety, companies point to a grid of controls. For instance, Neopets restricts children under 13 from certain areas unless their parents give permission in a fax. Several Neopets employees patrol the site around the clock, and messaging features are limited to approved words and phrases.

“Parents know they can trust our brand to protect kids,” said Steve Youngwood, executive vice president for digital media at Nickelodeon. “We see that as a competitive advantage.”

by Brook Barnes for The New York Times.

NVDL: The major difference between the Great Depression of 1927 and the Superhumongous Depression of 2008 will be this: In 1927 a lot of people found work working on farms. I'd predict that the internet will be a major employer of our time and interest, and people will invest muchy greater amounts of time, interest and intellectual capacity into the internet than ever before - at least, while the lights stay on.

This would be an area I'd love to work in. I would be concerned that it stimulates delusion, or escapism at the expense of the present. I've rethought that though. For human beings, stories are just as important as reality, and thus as a storyteller or 'world-imaginer', storytellers can have an important influence either way. Thus it seems to make sense to get involved.

My Game worlds would include:
The Castle
Space Ants
and for adults: Hot Plate

More on those later... ;-)

Iran Receives Nuclear Fuel in Blow to U.S.

WASHINGTON — The United States lost a long battle when Russia, as it announced on Monday, delivered nuclear fuel to an Iranian power plant that is at the center of an international dispute over its nuclear program. Iran, for its part, confirmed on Monday plans to build a second such plant.
By HELENE COOPER
More.

The 53 Places to Go in 2008

1 LAOS

Vietnam and Cambodia are so 2007. Now, Laos is shaping up to be Indochina's next hot spot. Ancient sites like the Wat Phou temple complex and the capital city of Vientiane are drawing culture seekers. Luxury teak houseboats are cruising down the Mekong. And global nomads are heading to Luang Prabang to sample the Laotian tasting menu at 3 Nagas (http://www.3nagas.com/) or hang out by the infinity pool at the seriously upscale Résidence Phou Vao (http://www.residencephouvao.com/).

2 LISBON

Bargain-seeking tourists have long flocked to Lisbon, typically among the most affordable of European cities. But now the Portuguese capital is also emerging as a cultural force. The new Berardo Collection Museum (http://www.berardocollection.com/), in the historic Belem district, boasts a major trove of modern and contemporary art. Designer hotels like Fontana Park (http://www.fontanaparkhotel.com/) and Jerónimos 8 (http://www.almeidahotels.com/) are attracting style-savvy travelers. And the Design and Fashion Museum, scheduled to open in late 2008, will go a long way toward cementing the city's avant-garde status.

3 TUNISIA

Tunisia is undergoing a Morocco-like luxury makeover. A new wave of stylish boutique hotels, often in historic town houses, has cropped up alongside this North African country's white-sand beaches and age-old medinas, drawing increasing numbers of well-heeled travelers. The Villa Didon (http://www.villadidon.com/) in Carthage, for one, has a restaurant originally run by Alain Ducasse. Indeed, TripAdvisor ranks Jerba, a resort island off Tunisia's southern coast, as the No. 1 emerging spot in 2008.

4. MAURITIUS

Flying to the sugar-white shores of Mauritius is about to get easier. Virgin Atlantic just began nonstop flights from London to this tiny coral-ringed island off the coast of Madagascar, and it also recently became a hub port for Indian Ocean excursions by the Italy-based Costa Cruises. Meanwhile, new hotels are opening up, including a Four Seasons resort, Anahita Mauritius (http://www.anahitamauritius.com/), that features four restaurants, three beaches and an ayurveda spa.

5. MID-BEACH, MIAMI

Move over South Beach. The iconic Eden Roc Resort (http://www.edenrocresort.com/) and Fontainebleau Miami Beach (http://www.fontainebleau.com/) — faded glitterati hangouts designed by Morris Lapidus — will reopen in 2008 after multimillion-dollar renovations, returning Mid-Beach to its former glory. Future neighbors include Gansevoort South, a W Hotel and a Mid-Beach outpost of the members-only Soho House.

6. SOUTH BEACH, MIAMI

Not to be outdone, South Beach will also welcome a red carpet of designer hotels: the Angler's Boutique Resort (http://www.theanglersresort.com/) by Gianni Versace's former decorator Wallace Tutt; the Tides South Beach (http://www.tidessouthbeach.com/), revamped by the design star Kelly Wearstler; and the Mondrian South Beach (http://www.mondriansouthbeach.com/) by the Dutch design superstar Marcel Wanders. Meanwhile, Nicky Hilton's much-hyped dreams of running a hotel has ended up in bankruptcy court — and the auction block.

7. MALDIVES

The 2004 tsunami, a fragile ecology and a recent bombing have done little to dampen a hotel boom in this island-nation of about 1,192 coral islets in the Indian Ocean. Among the high-end hotels expected to open next year is a Regent Hotels & Resorts (http://www.regenthotels.com/) with 50 villas, many set over the water, allowing guests to observe the rich marine life while still lying in bed.

8. DEATH VALLEY

It's too early to predict, but recent heavy rains have some flower bloggers already speculating about a dazzling spring bloom in Death Valley next year. Death Valley is home to more than 1,000 species of wildflower, and in that special spring after a wet fall and winter, the brown desert landscape is carpeted with Technicolor fields of blossoms.

9. COURCHEVEL

The ultra-exclusive French skiing village of Courchevel may be overrun by Russian billionaires these days, but that has only fueled the resort's consumption of Cristal jeroboams and high-ticket hotels. The sumptuous Hotel de Charme Les Airelles (http://www.airelles.fr/) reopens this month following a $31 million renovation, and, late next year, Le Padisha ups the ante with rustic-chic apartments starting at 1.3 million euros, or $1.95 million at $1.50 to the euro.
10 - 53.

Compiled by DENNY LEE for the New York Times

NVDL: Note that Namibia, Mozambique, Iran, and Libya are mentioned but not our murderously beautiful enclave.

Oil-Rich Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports

Luis J. Jimenez for The New York Times

The economies of many big oil-exporting countries are growing so fast that their need for energy within their borders is crimping how much they can sell abroad, adding new strains to the global oil market.

Experts say the sharp growth, if it continues, means several of the world’s most important suppliers may need to start importing oil within a decade to power all the new cars, houses and businesses they are buying and creating with their oil wealth.

Indonesia has already made this flip. By some projections, the same thing could happen within five years to Mexico, the No. 2 source of foreign oil for the United States, and soon after that to Iran, the world’s fourth-largest exporter. In some cases, the governments of these countries subsidize gasoline heavily for their citizens, selling it for as little as 7 cents a gallon, a practice that industry experts say fosters wasteful habits.

“It is a very serious threat that a lot of major exporters that we count on today for international oil supply are no longer going to be net exporters any more in 5 to 10 years,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil analyst at Rice
University. By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
More.

Intercepting Iran’s Take on America

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

There are two intelligence analyses that are relevant to the balance of power between the U.S. and Iran — one is the latest U.S. assessment of Iran, which certainly gave a much more complex view of what is happening there. The other is the Iranian National Intelligence Estimate of America, which — my guess — would read something like this:

To: President Ahmadinejad

From: The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence

Subject: America

As you’ll recall, in the wake of 9/11, we were extremely concerned that the U.S. would develop a covert program to end its addiction to oil, which would be the greatest threat to Iranian national security. In fact, after Bush’s 2006 State of the Union, in which he decried America’s oil addiction, we had “high confidence” that a comprehensive U.S. clean energy policy would emerge. We were wrong.

Our fears that the U.S. was engaged in a covert “Manhattan Project” to achieve energy independence have been “assuaged.” America’s Manhattan Project turns out to be largely confined to the production of corn ethanol in Iowa, which, our analysts have confirmed from cellphone intercepts between lobbyists and Congressmen, is nothing more than a multibillion-dollar payoff to big Iowa farmers and agro-businesses.

True, thanks to Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. Congress decided to increase the miles per gallon required of U.S. car fleets by the year 2020 — which took us by surprise — but we nevertheless “strongly believe” this will not lead to any definitive breaking of America’s oil addiction, since none of the leading presidential candidates has offered an energy policy that would include a tax on oil or carbon that could trigger a truly transformational shift in America away from fossil fuels.

Therefore, it is “very likely” that Iran’s current level of high oil revenues will last for decades and insulate our regime from any decisive pressures from abroad or from our own people.

We have to note that obtaining open-source intelligence in America has become more difficult, because traditional news shows have become more comedic and more comedic news shows more authoritative.

For instance, CNN’s nightly business report is hosted by a man named “Dobbs.” Real journalists come on his show and present transparently propagandistic stories about immigration and trade and then he fulminates about them, much the way our ayatollahs used to do about “Satanic Americans” on late-night Iranian TV. So viewers have no real idea what’s happening in the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, at 11 p.m., something called “The Daily Show,” which appears on Comedy Central, has fake journalists presenting what turns out to be the real news.

Yes, our last I.N.I.E. in 1990 concluded that after the collapse of communism, America was on track to become the world’s sole superpower and most compelling role model for Muslim youth — including our own. We were wrong. We now have “high confidence” that America is on a path of self-destruction, for three reasons:

First, 9/11 has made America afraid and therefore stupid. The “war on terrorism” is now so deeply imbedded in America’s psyche that we think it is “highly likely” that America will continue to export more fear than hope and will continue to defend things like torture and Guantánamo Bay prison and to favor politicians like Mr. Giuliani, who alienates the rest of the world.

Second, at a time when America’s bridges, roads, airports and Internet bandwidth have fallen behind other industrial powers, including China, we believe that the U.S. opposition to higher taxes — and the fact that the primary campaigns have focused largely on gay marriage, flag-burning and whether the Christian Bible is the literal truth — means it is “highly unlikely” that America will arrest its decline.

Third, all the U.S. presidential candidates are distancing themselves from the core values that made America such a great power and so different from us — in particular America’s long commitment to free trade, open immigration and a reverence for scientific enquiry wherever it leads. Our intel analysts are baffled that the leading Democrat, Mrs. Clinton, no longer believes in globalization and the leading Republican, Mr. Huckabee, never believed in evolution.

U.S. politicians seem determined to appeal either to the most nativist extremes in their respective parties — or to tell voters that something Americans call “the tooth fairy” will make their energy, budget, educational and Social Security deficits painlessly disappear.

Therefore, we conclude with “high confidence” that there is little likelihood that post-9/11 America will, as they say, “get its groove back” anytime soon.

Who needs nukes when you have this kind of America?

God is Great. Long Live the Iranian Revolution.

NVDL: I am not sure Iran is more dangerous than America. America has proved it is capable of being the most warmongering nation and destructive nation since the end of the 2nd World War. On the positive side, a Superpower does bring stability to the world, whereas no Superpower presents an unstable vacuum. I guess someone has to do it. So far, America remains the nation that has lobbed the most nuclear weapons at another foreign power (+2).

Best Books of 2007

Fiction
MAN GONE DOWN
By Michael Thomas. Black Cat/Grove/Atlantic, paper, $14.

OUT STEALING HORSES
By Per Petterson. Translated by Anne Born. Graywolf Press, $22.

THE SAVAGE DETECTIVES
By Roberto Bolaño. Translated by Natasha Wimmer. Farrar, Straus & Giroux, $27.

HOLIDAY
By Nick van der Leek. Bloomsbury, $31.

THEN WE CAME TO THE END
By Joshua Ferris. Little, Brown & Company, $23.99.

TREE OF SMOKE
By Denis Johnson. Farrar, Straus & Giroux, $27.

Nonfiction
IMPERIAL LIFE IN THE EMERALD CITY: Inside Iraq's Green Zone.
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran. Alfred A. Knopf, $25.95; Vintage, paper, $14.95.

LITTLE HEATHENS: Hard Times and High Spirits on an Iowa Farm During the Great Depression.By Mildred Armstrong Kalish. Bantam Books, $22.

THE NINE: Inside the Secret World of the Supreme Court.
By Jeffrey Toobin. Doubleday, $27.95.

THE ORDEAL OF ELIZABETH MARSH: A Woman in World History.
By Linda Colley. Pantheon Books, $27.50.

THE REST IS NOISE: Listening to the Twentieth Century.
By Alex Ross. Farrar, Straus & Giroux, $30.

Denial Makes the World Go Round (NYT)

Varieties of denial include inattention, passive acknowledgment, reframing and willful blindness.

For years she hid the credit card bills from her husband: The $2,500 embroidered coat from Neiman Marcus. The $900 beaded scarf from Blake in Chicago. A $600 pair of Dries van Noten boots. All beautiful items, and all perfectly affordable if she had been a hedge fund manager or a Google executive.

Friends at first dropped hints to go easy or rechannel her creative instincts. Her mother grew concerned enough to ask pointed questions. But sales clerks kept calling with early tips on the coming season’s fashions, and the seasons kept changing.

“It got so bad I would sit up suddenly at night and wonder if I was going to slip up and this whole thing would explode,” said the secretive shopper, Katharine Farrington, 46, a freelance film writer living in Washington, who is now free of debt. “I don’t know how I could have been in denial about it for so long. I guess I was optimistic I could pay, and that I wasn’t hurting anyone.
“Well, of course that wasn’t true.”

Everyone is in denial about something; just try denying it and watch friends make a list. For Freud, denial was a defense against external realities that threaten the ego, and many psychologists today would argue that it can be a protective defense in the face of unbearable news, like a cancer diagnosis.

In the modern vernacular, to say someone is “in denial” is to deliver a savage combination punch: one shot to the belly for the cheating or drinking or bad behavior, and another slap to the head for the cowardly self-deception of pretending it’s not a problem.

Denial Good For Relationships

Yet recent studies from fields as diverse as psychology and anthropology suggest that the ability to look the other way, while potentially destructive, is also critically important to forming and nourishing close relationships. The psychological tricks that people use to ignore a festering problem in their own households are the same ones that they need to live with everyday human dishonesty and betrayal, their own and others’. And it is these highly evolved abilities, research suggests, that provide the foundation for that most disarming of all human invitations, forgiveness.

In this emerging view, social scientists see denial on a broader spectrum — from benign inattention to passive acknowledgment to full-blown, willful blindness — on the part of couples, social groups and organizations, as well as individuals. Seeing denial in this way, some scientists argue, helps clarify when it is wise to manage a difficult person or personal situation, and when it threatens to become a kind of infectious silent trance that can make hypocrites of otherwise forthright people.

“The closer you look, the more clearly you see that denial is part of the uneasy bargain we strike to be social creatures,” said Michael McCullough, a psychologist at the University of Miami and the author of the coming book “Beyond Revenge: The Evolution of the Forgiveness Instinct.” “We really do want to be moral people, but the fact is that we cut corners to get individual advantage, and we rely on the room that denial gives us to get by, to wiggle out of speeding tickets, and to forgive others for doing the same.”

The capacity for denial appears to have evolved in part to offset early humans’ hypersensitivity to violations of trust. In small kin groups, identifying liars and two-faced cheats was a matter of survival. A few bad rumors could mean a loss of status or even expulsion from the group, a death sentence.

In a series of recent studies, a team of researchers led by Peter H. Kim of the University of Southern California and Donald L. Ferrin of the University of Buffalo, now at Singapore Management University, had groups of business students rate the trustworthiness of a job applicant after learning that the person had committed an infraction at a previous job. Participants watched a film of a job interview in which the applicant was confronted with the problem and either denied or apologized for it.

If the infraction was described as a mistake and the applicant apologized, viewers gave him the benefit of the doubt and said they would trust him with job responsibilities. But if the infraction was described as fraud and the person apologized, viewers’ trust evaporated — and even having evidence that he had been cleared of misconduct did not entirely restore that trust.

“We concluded there is this skewed incentive system,” Dr. Kim said. “If you are guilty of an integrity-based violation and you apologize, that hurts you more than if you are dishonest and deny it.”

The system is skewed precisely because the people we rely on and value are imperfect, like everyone else, and not nearly as moral or trustworthy as they expect others to be. If evidence of this weren’t abundant enough in everyday life, it came through sharply in a recent study led by Dan Ariely, a behavioral economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Dr. Ariely and two colleagues, Nina Mazar and On Amir, had 326 students take a multiple-choice general knowledge test, promising them payment for every correct answer. The students were instructed to transfer their answers, for the official tally, onto a form with color-in bubbles for each numbered question. But some of the students had the opportunity to cheat: they received bubble sheets with the correct answers seemingly inadvertently shaded in gray. Compared with the others, they changed about 20 percent of their answers, and a follow-up study demonstrated that they were unaware of the magnitude of their dishonesty.

By BENEDICT CAREY
For the next page of this New York Times article, go here.

NVDL: This why our chronic denial of the Peak Oil issue is in essence related to our ego's. Think of automobile advertising. Your car says a lot about you. Your car is an extension of your image, and by far the most powerful. Our car's give us an identity, they enable us to get ahead, they place us in or out of a particular status quo. And we do tend to deny whatever deflates our ego's. Sometimes that denial is also called lying. But your mother probably told you: lying is bad, but lying to yourself is just plain frickin' dumb! Human beings are in denial about a fuckload of things. South Africans and Americans probably lead the pack.

South Africans are in denial about the following:
- being the world leader for those suffering from a terminal disease called AIDS (people should be walking around with certificates stating whether they are HIV positive or not, to hand out to prospective lovers, but more importantly, for their own perusal. Over 5 million people are presently infected. Meanwhile South Africa is no different from any other sex-crazed, apparently sex starved country.
- being the world leader with regard to crime, and in particular, violent crime. But do our communities get involved, hold Town Hall meetings? Do neighbours even talk to each other about what to do, who to call, how to help if one of them gets attacked?
- being la di dah, blah di blah about environmental issues. South Africa is one of the world's worst polluters per capita. This is thanks to our mining activities, and also our golden saviour: SASOL
- we're in denail about the electricity problem (which will get worse over at least a 7 year period)
- we're in denial about the rest of Africa, particularly Zimbabwe
- we're in denial about our political leaders
- we're in denial about our own inner corruption
- we're in denial about our diets, about exercise, about who we are.
Fundamentally, we're fucked.

Does Death Penalty Save Lives? A New Debate

“Capital punishment may well save lives,” the two professors continued. “Those who object to capital punishment, and who do so in the name of protecting life, must come to terms with the possibility that the failure to inflict capital punishment will fail to protect life.”

For the first time in a generation, the question of whether the death penalty deters murders has captured the attention of scholars in law and economics, setting off an intense new debate about one of the central justifications for capital punishment.
By ADAM LIPTAK

According to roughly a dozen recent studies, executions save lives. For each inmate put to death, the studies say, 3 to 18 murders are prevented.
The effect is most pronounced, according to some studies, in Texas and other states that execute condemned inmates relatively often and relatively quickly.

The studies, performed by economists in the past decade, compare the number of executions in different jurisdictions with homicide rates over time — while trying to eliminate the effects of crime rates, conviction rates and other factors — and say that murder rates tend to fall as executions rise. One influential study looked at 3,054 counties over two decades.

“I personally am opposed to the death penalty,” said H. Naci Mocan, an economist at Louisiana State University and an author of a study finding that each execution saves five lives. “But my research shows that there is a deterrent effect.”

For more go here.

NVDL: I've often heard experts and leaders saying that research shows the death penalty doesn't work. I never believed them. In a perfect society you wouldn't need an imperfect solution like this. We're far from an ideal world, and we're incredibly stupid if we think - in South Africa especially - that we live in one. It's an obscene irony that in our idealised effort to protect human rights, we allow 40 murders to be perpetrated each day.

If you had a child, and every day he killed a different neighbours dog, but all you did was send him to his room, surely as some point you would think of giving (yes, even your own child) a damn good hiding. It's not nice, but it's also not nice for the 14 600 dead people (that's half a stadium or 14 schools).

From Ants to People, an Instinct to Swarm (NYT)

Christian Ziegler/Agentur Focus
If you have ever observed ants marching in and out of a nest, you might have been reminded of a highway buzzing with traffic. To Iain D. Couzin, such a comparison is a cruel insult — to the ants.

By CARL ZIMMER

Americans spend a 3.7 billion hours a year in congested traffic. But you will never see ants stuck in gridlock.

Army ants, which Dr. Couzin has spent much time observing in Panama, are particularly good at moving in swarms. If they have to travel over a depression in the ground, they erect bridges so that they can proceed as quickly as possible.

“They build the bridges with their living bodies,” said Dr. Couzin, a mathematical biologist at Princeton University and the University of Oxford. “They build them up if they’re required, and they dissolve if they’re not being used.”

The reason may be that the ants have had a lot more time to adapt to living in big groups. “We haven’t evolved in the societies we currently live in,” Dr. Couzin said.

By studying army ants — as well as birds, fish, locusts and other swarming animals — Dr. Couzin and his colleagues are starting to discover simple rules that allow swarms to work so well. Those rules allow thousands of relatively simple animals to form a collective brain able to make decisions and move like a single organism.

Deciphering those rules is a big challenge, however, because the behavior of swarms emerges unpredictably from the actions of thousands or millions of individuals.
“No matter how much you look at an individual army ant,” Dr. Couzin said, “you will never get a sense that when you put 1.5 million of them together, they form these bridges and columns. You just cannot know that.”

To get a sense of swarms, Dr. Couzin builds computer models of virtual swarms. Each model contains thousands of individual agents, which he can program to follow a few simple rules. To decide what those rules ought to be, he and his colleagues head out to jungles, deserts or oceans to observe animals in action.

Daniel Grunbaum, a mathematical biologist at the University of Washington, said his field was suddenly making leaps forward, as math and observation of nature were joined in the work of Dr. Couzin and others. “In the next 10 years there’s going to be a lot of progress.”
He said Dr. Couzin has been important in fusing the different kinds of science required to understand animal group behavior. “He’s been a real leader in bringing a lot of ideas together,” Dr. Grunbaum said. “He has a larger vision. If it works, that’ll be a big advance.”

In the case of army ants, Dr. Couzin was intrigued by their highways. Army ants returning to their nest with food travel in a dense column. This incoming lane is flanked by two lanes of outgoing traffic. A three-lane highway of army ants can stretch for as far as 150 yards from the ant nest, comprising hundreds of thousands of insects.

What Dr. Couzin wanted to know was why army ants do not move to and from their colony in a mad, disorganized scramble. To find out, he built a computer model based on some basic ant biology. Each simulated ant laid down a chemical marker that attracted other ants while the marker was still fresh. Each ant could also sweep the air with its antennas; if it made contact with another ant, it turned away and slowed down to avoid a collision.

Dr. Couzin analyzed how the ants behaved when he tweaked their behavior. If the ants turned away too quickly from oncoming insects, they lost the scent of their trail. If they did not turn fast enough, they ground to a halt and forced ants behind them to slow down. Dr. Couzin found that a narrow range of behavior allowed ants to move as a group as quickly as possible.

It turned out that these optimal ants also spontaneously formed highways. If the ants going in one direction happened to become dense, their chemical trails attracted more ants headed the same way. This feedback caused the ants to form a single packed column. The ants going the other direction turned away from the oncoming traffic and formed flanking lanes.

For more, go here.

Also read my article:

Why Insects Can't Fly Straight at Night

NVDL: It would be good to take heed, since traffic congestion appears to be an awesome example of human shortsightedness and stupidity. It's called rush hour, and everyone is stuck, burning fuel, getting nowhere quickly.

TIME: It's official: Peak oil is here and "the long emergency" has begun

This is a few days old, but nonetheless very much worth sharing:

When historians glance back at 2007 through the haze of their coal-fired stoves, they will mark this year as the onset of the Long Emergency – or whatever they choose to call the unraveling of industrial economies and the complex systems that constituted them. And if they retain any sense of humor – which is very likely since, as wise Sam Beckett once averred, nothing is funnier than unhappiness – they will chuckle at the assumptions that drove the doings and mental operations of those in charge back then (i.e. now).

These are the words of Jim Kunstler--sometime Rolling Stone writer, suburbia-hater, peak oil hardliner and author of the doom-enthusiast's bible, The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century. His blog post goes on and on and on, but the gist of it is this: Peak oil is now clearly upon us, so let the collapse of Western society begin.

Now I'm still mighty dubious of the second part (although I reserve the right to chuckle at my current assumptions as I forage for grubs 20 years hence), but the man is onto something about peak oil. I've just been reading through the coverage of and some of the presentations from the annual Oil & Money conference held in London earlier this week, and it's hard to come away with anything but the impression that world oil production--currently about 73 million barrels a day--is never going to go much higher than that.

Much of the talk was couched in terms of shortages in production capacity, petroleum engineers, etc. That is, not the actual supply of oil under the ground. So maybe this would be more a plateau than a peak. But with oil consumption in the developing world going up at 3% a year (it's more or less flat in the wealthy countries), even a plateau would mean higher and higher prices over time. You ready for that?

NVDL: It's going to start happening...a car is going to seem very unsexy, as our addiction to oil propels us towards the equivalent of a car wreck. How sexy is that?

Rising Demand for Oil Provokes New Energy Crisis (NYT)

"God is too vague a concept to be meaningful"

'For if God’s greatness entails being invisible, intangible and inscrutable, then he can’t be disproved — but nor can he be proved.'

For the rest of this New York Times article, go here.