Oil rises $5 overnight, Rand weakens

Brent Crude is trading at over $128 now, and the Rand is now 7.80 to the $. At these prices we can anticipate 3 or 4 more months of successive fuel price hikes,with petrol prices breaching R12 a litre by the end of this year.

Every time we have a downward shift, the market forgets what pushed the market up,and when it's up, the market calls it a bubble, blames speculators, or the $ - in short the market looks everywhere except at real fundamental forces.

FT.com:
India, which imports 70 percent of its oil needs to feed its fast-growing economy, on Wednesday raised petrol prices by 11 percent and diesel by 9.4 percent based on pump prices in New Delhi.

Malaysia raised petrol prices 41 percent in a bid to curb its massive subsidies bill, following a similar move in Indonesia where fuel prices jumped by almost 30 percent.

High fuel prices have also hit global airlines. US carrier Continental Airlines said Thursday it will cut 3,000 jobs and pull 67 ageing planes in a massive retrenchment because of rising fuel prices. Two other big US carriers, American and United Airlines, have made similar moves.

More: Improving Mileage: "Hypermiling"

$1 = R7.6910 Now

Rand in a bear trap

THE rand remained caught in a bear trap today due to continuing global fears, with analysts saying the R7,80 level to the dollar could be tested today. - From Business Day.

More.

EINA! Rand at $6.99, Oil at $91

This combination is going to hurt South African consumers. It's not as big a setback if the oil price goes high and the Rand is at, say, R6.60 or R6.70, but the Rand has come all the way back, and now the full impact of those oil prices is going to sting.

The JSE is hovering around 28 400, licking its wounds after plenty of blood letting. The media are underplaying this of course, saying that the political background is not relevant (of course it is) and obvious there's also not a collective wince about oil (which effects food prices, and is the source of inflationary pressures).

Whether or not you go on holiday this December, the odds are next year this time your options will be even fewer. That's a pretty austere scenario, I know, but unfortunately, one I believe to be probable.

Shit Happens: Rand Now 7.0485 to Dollar, Oil Prices Unchanged

If you thought the oil price at $94 was no problemo (because the R/$ was strong), think again. The Rand has weakened against the dollar, and the oil price has not really shifted. Sorry, that means there is nowhere else to go except deeper into your own pockets. Is there any small change chinkling in there? There is? Not for much longer.

JSE ALL SHARE is taking a tumble: 29213.320 (DOWN) 0.80%.

For background, read this:
Rand regains some lost ground

Oil Marches Toward $100 (ECONOMIC ANALYSIS)

Right now, Brent Crude is:
Brent Crude Oil :91.46
Rand - US Dollar: 6.6100

Oil prices breached the $96 before retreating marginally. Analysts are now saying that $100 is an 'easy target'.

Meanwhile, from South Africa's point of view, the prices of Brent Crude are less of a concern given that the dollar has depreciated down to around 6.50. Had the dollar been at around 7.50, we'd have been in big trouble.

The question is, why has the Rand strengthened so much, and is it good for the country. The $5.5 billion deal - the largest ever overseas investment in South Africa - between the world's largest bank (based on China) and Standard Bank, represents a massive capital injection into the relatively small pool of South African capital. This is the main reason behind our stronger currency. The deal was timed very fortuitously indeed.

Meanwhile the strengthening Rand is bad news for exporters. Since South Africa derives plenty of its income from exports - especially minerals - the currency fluctuation remains a concern.

Today decision makers will come together to decide whether there will be a fuel increase for motorists, and if so, how much it is likely to be.

R/$ and Brent Crude Prices (LATEST)

Rand - US Dollar : 6.5300
Brent Crude Oil : US$ 88.41

Global climate points to interesting times for SA

NVDL: No doubt more interesting than we can conceive...