Bethesda's OWL HOUSE VS Joburg's JUNK HOUSE

Kunstler: ..."kindergarten ethos of entitled happy endings"...

Things are getting very weird very fast -- and will probably get even weirder, faster, as the train wreck of bad debt meets the Saint Paddy's Day Parade of bacchanalian excess at the grade-crossing of destiny. The train is carrying America's financial system, but the engine driving it is peak oil, because declining energy resources necessarily means declining capital wealth -- and declining value of all the institutions, instruments, and markers that denote that wealth or hope to profit by trading in it. The fiasco leads straight to the necessary reinvention of American life on other terms and by other means.

I've maintained for a long time that, even among those who recognize we have a big problem, there are many impediments to imagining a credible outcome. One thing I've noticed is that in any given public meeting (or lecture hall) you can divide participants into two groups: those who believe we will 'high-tech' our way out of this predicament; and those who believe we'll organize our way out.

I don't subscribe to either point of view, strictly speaking. Both POV's assume that there will be an orderly transition between where we're at now and where we're headed. They're tainted by the kindergarten ethos of entitled happy endings and outcomes, which has been the chief operating system for the Baby Boomers, a therapeutic bias for placing 'good feelings' ahead of reality -- which also has obliterated the tragic sense of life that acts as the only brake on humanity's inherent hubris.

Ultimately, in my view, the issue of what happens next will be settled not by the fantasies of the algae-biodiesel geeks or the wishful thinking of the sustainable futures organizers, but by the natural, self-organizing properties of a society responding 'emergently' to new circumstances. One of the implications of destiny-as-emergence is the probability that we will try any damn fool thing besides the right things to keep the old game going for a while -- even in the face of obvious failure.

I'm sure our political leaders will mount a campaign to rescue the futureless infrastructure of suburbia. It will necessarily be an exercise in futility. But it has already started. That's what the swindle of ethanol has been all about. And the touting of hybrid cars, and the flimflam of "energy independence." Even the "environmental" crowd" squanders most of its attention these days on how to keep all the cars running on something other than gasoline. They don't question the assumption that we will remain a car-dependent society.

[We need to start thinking about a world that is not dependent on cars; walkable communities plugged into sustainable organic systems...]

As much as I loathe the suburbs in their grotesque late-stage efflorescence, I can understand why those stuck in them would wish to defend their misinvestments. I just hate to think of the political consequences when their disappointment catches up to the reality that the suburbs will not be rescued. And by that I mean not just the houses but the way-of-life associated with them and all its accessories, furnishings, and activities. Bewilderment will soon turn to rage out in the highway-strip-and-cul-de-sac empire.

Now, apparently, we'll also opt for a bail-out of all those who tried to become rich by getting something for nothing at both ends of the Ponzi scheme called the housing bubble -- the "little guys" who signed mortgage contracts they could never hope to pay off, and the Wall Street playerz who bundled these hopeless contracts into fraudulent securities (and their enablers in the ratings agencies, plus the hedge fund smoothies who tried to cash in by using recondite algorithms to dissolve the risk associated with imprudent lending.) The bail-out is likely to accomplish nothing except the more rapid bankruptcy of government at all levels and a second Great Depression at ground level (worse than the first one).

Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve engineered a $30-billion dollar Saint Paddy's day present for the JP Morgan bank by handing them the corpse of Bear Stearns. The object of the game is to prevent the "assets" of Bear Stearns from going to the auction block, on which they would be discovered to be nearly worthless, which would instantly render all similar assets held by the other big banks to be similarly worthless, and would result in a universal margin call that would pretty much unwind the hallucinated "wealth" acquired the past ten years.

Despite the heroics around the fate of Bear Stearns, it looks like the financial system is tottering anyway. Perhaps the last trick left in the rescue bag will be the 100-basis-point drop in the Fed rate rumored to be announced tomorrow. It won't help any of the big banks, since their problem is holding liabilities in excess of assets. Almost certainly it would crater the US Dollar.

The next thing in store for America, in my opinion, will be a rather new surprise: oil-and-gasoline shortages. While frightened money pours into the oil futures markets, driving the price up, strange behavior will start brewing in the actual physical allocation process. Imports of oil and gas to the US may not be as reliable as it had been when America seemed to be a solvent nation. The exporters may be changing their terms of doing business with us -- and that's nearly two-thirds of all the oil we need. The public would probably suck up oil price increases indefinitely, but shortages are going to be something else. A real freak out.

From www.kunstler.com. Also buy Jim's book, order here.

NVDL: We are stuck in a perception that somehow, somewhere (you know the song) someone out there will make everything all right and we can continue...well...with what exactly? The rat race? We are already off the tracks, we're just too silly to realise it. And when we wise up to the fact that suburbia is going to implode, and eating breakfast and going to work the way we do is going to change...well...what else will we be doing? Roll up your sleeves. Find the nearest tract of farmland and convince the farmer you're a laborer worth having around. For the rest, ball your fists. The neighbours are about to turn nasty. All this will happen when the next round of dry pumps start belching around the world, and commuters race again to get this season's last drops first* - meanwhile the world, northern and southern hemisphere, slips into The Next Winter For Mankind.

*Repeat this game ad homicidum.

Bullard: Selling Cars, Load Shedding, Illegal Speeding and 4 km Rat Runs (INTERVIEW 4)

“In Africa you win votes by driving something big and shiny.”

NVDL: What do you drive?
Bullard: [Laughs] I’m driving whatever they give me. At the moment I’m driving an 18 year old Toyota Hilux bakkie, which I own, because I’m trying to sell a Mazda MX5.
NVDL: They have that beautiful bubble shape don’t they, hey?
Bullard: The Mazda? Yeah. I’ve got the new one with the flared arches; very nice. The problem is I live 1.5km from here; I don’t do school runs, and I’ve put 7000km on the clock in 22 months. It won’t have a service at this race for another 2 years.
NVDL: You don’t really need it.
Bullard: No.
RP: For how much are planning on selling it?
Bullard: For you, special price. R242 000 new. I’ll give it to you for about R190.

RP: That’s a very good price. And this weekend on Car Torque you’ll be driving the 350Z?
Bullard: Yes; very good car, very nice car. Good value.

NVDL: [Rudely interrupting] So what’s your dream car?
Bullard: Porsche [he enunciates the word lovingly: Por-sha] Look if money was no object and overall – I mean I do like many other cars – but I’ve found that consistently Porsche is a car you can drive every day. It’s a fabulous performer; it’s superbly engineered. I’ve been over to a lot of launches, I’ve seen the engineers, talked to the engineers: it delivers on every level.
NVDL: What about…
RP: Do you think it’s actually worth it; I mean on South African roads?
Bullard: No, [but] that’s a different question isn’t it? We were out yesterday; we were driving the Audi R8 down in Worcester, last week – on very clear, rural roads – at illegal speeds. The policemen were presumably told to take the day off. You can’t drive like that; you’re going to get nicked. You’re going to go to prison. I mean if you’re driving at 240, and this car is capable of 300km/h, - and my frustration is you’re sitting in a car like a Porsche thinking: “Well, you know, I’m actually using 40% of the capacity.” Like the big Merc. So, practically, I would rather have something that’s not a gas guzzler, that takes a lot of people… My wife drives a Renault Scenic which I think is great, apart from the second hand value, and I quite like boring MPVs. You for going into the bush…
NVDL: What’s an MPV?
Bullard: Multi-Purpose Vehicle, traditionally the ‘Mom’s Taxi’s, but they’ve got 7 seats and…

NVDL: I like that you said: -“not a gas guzzler”-
Bullard: Yeah.
NVDL: Because in the reality of what’s happening; I mean oil is now at $74 whatever-
Bullard: Heading towards 100.
NVDL: With the amount of cars that are just growing all of the world…
Bullard: Two nights ago I went to a dinner party in Sanddown, from Rosebank. Took me an hour and a half to get there. Because the robots were out. So because we’re having load shedding, it was gridlock cars, all the way through, all burning fuel…
NVDL: Mmm.
Bullard: Into the atmosphere, which must have been, which must be [in my estimation] worse than not having the robots working. Get the robots working, get the people home, then cut the electricity. Instead of which, there were hundreds of cars down every possible rat run. You do four kilometers in an hour and a half. And have all that frustration. And most of them were three litres. One guy was sitting in his car, on the cell phone..

NVDL: But do you see the cycle of what’s happening? We’re getting strange weather, which causes power outages, which causes traffic jams, and the traffic leads to weather…in a way…
Bullard: Sure. It’s a knock-on effect. Let’s manage it. Surely people can have flexi-hours at their offices. Surely more people can work from home. We’re talking executive’s cars moving in and out, at the same time every day, with one person in[side].
But we don’t have a good public transport system. When I lived in London I didn’t have a car; there was no point. I hired a car [for the] weekend.
NVDL: Yeah.
Bullard: I was on the bus, or a train or an Underground.
NVDL: I think part of the problem is suburbia.
Bullard: Yeah.
NVDL: We need a city and suburbia that’s one, which is basically what Europe is.
Bullard: Yes.
NVDL: We need that…How do you go into the future with suburbia still being developed, and now we’ve got this problem. Now you’ve got property markets the way they are, and so everything’s based on, you know, this project that doesn’t really have a future. So how do you un-engineer or re-engineer it?
Bullard: That’s right.
NVDL: There’s a movement call New Urbanism. They design walkable communities, and communities that are connected to organic systems. But I mean that’s still – that’s so on the fringe it’s not funny…
Bullard: Mmmm.
NVDL: But that basically needs to come in.
RP: On a lighter note…
Bullard: Indeed…I thought that was a light bit actually [Everyone laughs].
For the other interview click on the tag below: The Bullard Tapes.

Rate hike sparks anger

From IOL.co.za:

The latest interest rate hike of 50 basis points evoked surprise, anger and disappointment on Thursday."

This policy will have a disastrous impact on the people of South Africa," warned the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu).

Cosatu said it was "angry that the governor of the Reserve Bank and his monetary policy committee (MPC) ignored our plea not to increase base lending rates".

Nedbank said the central bank surprised the market by once again pushing up the repo rate at which it lends money to commercial banks. This was an "unfortunate overcorrection" of rate cuts made in August 2004 and April 2005 amid evidence of the economy overheating, the bank said.

The Pam Golding Property group described the MPCs move as disappointing - "particularly given the fact that all the basic macro-economic fundamentals are strong".
For more click here.

NVDL: In the post below I was saying that logic can be dangerous. Especially when logic is relative to a restrictive context. Here's excellent evidence of that. Anger at an interest rate hike when spending, debt, inflation etc are virtually out of control.

The evidence is overwhelmingly in favour of our community learning to 'tighten its belt (collectively). That's an expression for efficiency, streamlining, saving, holding back, living within one's means, being more humble and less extravagant and self indulgent.

Get used the emotional response though. Anger is how people will respond when the lights go out, and petrol stations start to burp. This is going to happen with increasing frequency. On the electricity side, we know that because Eskom is warning us. On the fuel side, well, Peak Oil people have been saying it for years. By the way, that alarmist doomsday stuff is becoming mainstream now (in the same way that $70 oil is mainstream).

What we'll see is society adapting in some way to these costs, but obviously a fraction falls away as it doesn't have the resources. These people basically become economic losers. They will become a rising tide (think of strikes, unions, eventually communities) demanding cheaper everything, jobs, plenty of other things to relieve their misery. And of course, government will be able to do less and less. This is unfortunately not a story with a happy ending. Peak oil predicates a downward supply curve, so the only way to resolve this is to scale down what we are doing, start farming, dismantle suburbia, cycle to work, that sort of stuff that seems warm and fuzzy but ultimately unrealistic. believe me, it's real. It's here.

The more we resist these signs, the more angry we'll become as we see that we cannot perpetuate the myth of unlimited energy. There are limits to everything, including our own capacity to deluse ourselves.

For background visit all 3 important sites TODAY:
1. The Oil Drum
2. Global Public Media
3. No Impact Man

Kunstler: Grass Roots Syndrome

From Kunstler.com:

Because I wrote a couple of books about the design of cities (and the shortcomings of suburbia), a lot of blather comes my way about what towns around the nation are planning for the future -- and, off course, I hear plenty on the subject in my own town, Saratoga Springs, New York, which is a classic "main street" type town. I also happen to travel a lot and actually see what's going on far from home. Almost everything I see and hear is inconsistent with what I think reality has in store for us.

Obsessed with Parking

Most American towns, including my own, are obsessed to the point of mania with the issue of parking and more generally the management of cars, and much of their spending is directed to those ends. Municipal leaders (and the public they serve) have no idea what kind of problems the nation faces with oil. Because life in the USA has worked a particular way all their lives, they assume that it will continue to operate that way. Not only will they be disappointed as happy motoring spirals into history, but they will create a lot mischief in the meantime in planning things based on faulty assumptions.

Tourism

My own town, for instance, relies heavily on tourism, in particular tourism based on happy motoring. There is not the slightest apprehension among the people here, or our leaders in city hall, that automobile-based tourism may not be happening as soon as five years from now.

All our political energy is being expended in fighting about what kind of parking structures we will build (with borrowed money) and where to put them, and how these things might incorporate some secondary uses, such as police offices. We have also been debating plans for the expansion of our modest convention center -- in connection with added parking structures. It seems to me that one of the first things to go as the US economy contracts, along with its energy supply, will be activities like boat shows and optometrist's conventions.

Connect the Dots

Now this town happens to be on a railroad line that connects New York City to Montreal. Before 1950, it was the main way that people came to this town. These days, we get one train a day in each direction. The trains are invariably late, and not just a little late, but hours late. The track bed is in miserable shape and, of course, Amtrak is a sort of soviet-style management organization. There is no awareness among the public here, or our leaders, that we would benefit from improving the passenger railroad service, and around the state of New York generally there is no conversation about fixing the railroads. (Governor Elliot Spitzer is preoccupied these days with arranging to give driver's licenses to people who are in the country illegally.)

We are going to pay a large penalty for these failures of attention.

Another aspect of all this has to do with our assumptions about land development. Here in my town, and elsewhere around the country, the assumption is that suburban development will continue just as it has the past sixty years. This assumption is shared both by the developers themselves and their opponents. The developers expect the current "downturn" to reverse before long. From the opponents' point of view, the assumption is based on their legitimate fears and heartaches about what they've seen heedless development do to the American landscape. Consequently, whatever mental energy is left after the parking debates get tabled is dedicated to fighting over projected suburban expansion.

Radical?

My personal view about this is apparently radical -- though I am a man of modest habits and philosophy. My view is that the suburban project, per se, in the United States is over, finished. Like, totally. You can stick a fork in it. What you see is basically all that we're going to get. Not only do we not need anymore of it, but we have way too much of what is already on the ground. We don't need anymore suburban housing pods, and the ones already out there are going to hemorrhage value (and usefulness) as far ahead as anybody can imagine. We need more retail like we need 300-million holes in our heads. Ditto suburban office capacity. Ditto new roads and highways.

Delusional Projects

The projects that people see under construction now are things that went through the torturous permitting process at minimum a year ago and generally even further back. I would imagine that many of the developers of these few remaining projects -- whether they are condo villages or strip malls or chain store "power centers" -- are in deep melancholy as they read the news and desperately search for tenants. Their lenders must be equally depressed -- and in some cases cutting off further injections of capital. What remains is what bankers call "the workout" -- where the financial chips fall when people's hopes and dreams collide with reality's separate agenda.


In connection with the imminent collapse of our investments in suburbia is the fate of all the laws and codes that have governed the creation of it. I think it is a waste of effort at this point to attempt to reform what we generally refer to as "the zoning laws." They will simply become irrelevant. As we get in trouble with oil, and driving becomes more of a problem, it will be self-evident that regulations geared to keeping cars happy can no longer be followed. My guess is that for a period of time we will see a condition of stunned paralysis in the council chambers and planning boards. Eventually, if we are lucky enough to retain effective local governance, a new consensus will emerge that will be more reality-based by necessity.

In saying this, I imply that societies go through cycles of collective thinking that range from being fairly consistent with reality to being dangerously out of whack with it. We're at the latter end of the cycle these days. One of the symptoms of this is the fact that so many Americans believe the only thing wrong with America is George W. Bush, and that if only we could wiggle out of "his" war, every day would be Christmas, with Nascar around-the-clock, time-outs for shopping sprees down the aisles of the Target store, 5000-square-foot houses for all (for $750 a month), and three BMWs parked in the driveway. . . with fries, and supersize it!

In reality, there's a lot more wrong with how we live and how we think about how we live than the mere presence of George W. Bush at the head of the federal government. Our expectations are deeply out of phase with what the earth can provide for us and what the future has in store for us, and this failure of our collective imagination goes down to the grass roots.

NVDL: Well said Jim.